Semaglutide patent expiration 2026 accelerates generics in China, India, Brazil and Canada

The expiration of the semaglutide patent in March 2026 in the markets of China, Índia, Canadá and Novo Nordisk, responsible for Ozempic and Wegovy, loses its exclusivity in countries that account for around 40% of the world’s population and a third of people with obesity. Essa change coincides with the rapid growth of the market, whose projections were revised upwards due to the high demand for treatments against obesity and type 2 diabetes. The entry of generics and biosimilars should reduce costs and expand access in emerging regions.

Asian laboratories move forward with strategic partnerships to occupy space left by the loss of exclusivity. The dynamics involve not only the production of copies of semaglutide, but also the development of new analogues with competitive advantages, such as lower frequency of application and oral formats.

Indo-China partnerships strengthen global presence

Lupin, one of the largest generic manufacturers in the world, signed an agreement with Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals for the exclusive distribution of bofanglutide in Índia. Esse GLP-1 analogue, still in the testing phase, demonstrates weight loss results comparable to or superior to semaglutide, with the advantage of requiring only one injection every 14 days.

The partnership extends to Brasil through MedQuímica, a subsidiary of Lupin in Juiz of Fora (MG). The structure allows for acceleration in the supply of new drugs in Latin American markets after the patent is opened.

Indian laboratories compete for space in Brasil

Indian companies such as Biocon and Lupin structure local operations for GLP-1 biosimilars. Biocon maintains collaboration with Biomm, in Nova Lima (MG), initially focused on oncology, but with potential for generic semaglutide. Lupin, in turn, prioritizes bofanglutide via MedQuímica.

These movements create internal competition between Indians in Brazilian territory. The coincidence of expiration dates in several countries accelerates preparations for local production and distribution.

Main differences of new analogues under development

• Bofanglutide: application every 14 days, weight loss results comparable or superior to semaglutide, partnership Lupin-Gan & Lee.
• GZR4: under negotiation with Brazilian entities by Gan & Lee, focusing on type 2 diabetes and obesity.
• Generic semaglutide: prepared by Biocon/Biomm on Brasil after March 2026.
• Oral versions: oral Wegovy (New Nordisk) scheduled for release in January 2026 and orforglipron (Eli Lilly) awaiting approval in March 2026.

Advancement of oral versions reduces adhesion barrier

More than 60% of adults have some degree of fear of needles, which impacts the continuity of injectable treatments. Novo Nordisk prepares the launch of Wegovy in tablet form for January 2026 in the Estados Unidos, requiring administration on an empty stomach and a 30-minute interval before eating or drinking. Eli Lilly works on orforglipron, with greater schedule flexibility and meal independence.

Projections indicate that oral forms should represent around 24% of the global weight loss market by 2030. The Eli Lilly tablet could capture the largest share of this segment, according to analysis by investment banks.

Direct selling models gain strength in the sector

Pharmaceutical companies invest in direct channels to patients to circumvent reimbursement restrictions by health plans. Programas like NovoCare Pharmacy and LillyDirect offer fixed pricing, telemedicine consultation and home delivery. Essa approach favors consumers who pay out of their own pocket and reduces dependence on public or private systems.

The strategy is especially suitable for obesity medicines, according to statements by Novo Nordisk executives at recent industry events. The focus on digital channels and direct payment expands reach in competitive markets.

Innovations in alternative formats are being tested

Chinese laboratories are advancing studies on semaglutide-based nasal spray, seeking greater convenience and adherence. Essas options complement long-acting tablets and injections. Distribution via electronic platforms facilitates access in different regions.

Market dynamics increasingly depend on international agreements, productive partnerships and the ability to adapt to new regulatory and commercial realities after 2026.