Oil exceeds US$ 100 even with the release of Russian cargo by the US

Oil prices once again surpassed the US$100 per barrel mark this Friday (13), even after the Estados Unidos issued a temporary license that allows the purchase of Russian cargoes held at sea. A barrel of Brent, an international reference, registered an increase of 0.8% and reached US$ 100.30, while WTI, an American reference, traded at US$ 95.98. The persistence of the increase occurs amid tensions in the Oriente Médio, with a continued risk of interruptions in global energy supplies.

The conflict in the region keeps investors alert to possible blockages on strategic routes, which outweigh the immediate effects of the relief measures adopted by Washington. Desde the beginning of the war, the commodity accumulated an appreciation of around 40%, starting from levels close to US$60 at the beginning of the year and returning to levels not seen since mid-2022.

The American license, valid until April 11, authorizes the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and derivatives shipped until March 12. The measure seeks to increase the supply available on the market and stabilize prices, but the impact remains limited given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties.

Tensions in Oriente Médio drive volatility

The market reacts mainly to the risk of prolonged closure of key passages for oil transport. Ataques recent additions to infrastructure and ships in the area have increased the risk premium in futures contracts.

Analysts note that disruptions in global flow could maintain upward pressure for weeks. Bancos of investment revised projections upward, considering scenarios of variable duration of the conflict.

Volatility directly affects economic expectations in several regions, with repercussions on energy and transport costs.

US measures to contain escalation

Washington issued the temporary authorization after assessing the volume of Russian oil in transit, estimated at around 124 million barrels distributed across multiple locations. The initiative aims to direct this supply to global buyers without changing long-term sanctions.

Departamento of Tesouro highlighted that the action does not generate significant financial benefits for the Russian government, as most of the revenue comes from taxes on extraction. The measure complements releases of strategic reserves announced by international agencies.

Experts indicate that specific relief helps to avoid extreme peaks, but does not neutralize the factors of restricted supply in the main producing region.

Reactions in global markets and projections

Prices fluctuated throughout the day, with the Brent reaching values ​​above US$ 102 in the initial moments before stabilizing close to US$ 100. The accumulated increase in the week reflects constant adjustments to the news of the conflict.

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Financial institutions project high averages for the coming months, depending on the extent of interruptions in maritime transport. Previsões range from US$98 to higher levels in adverse scenarios.

Persistence above three digits reignites debates about global inflation and monetary policies, with revisions in expectations of interest rate cuts at the main central banks.

Economic impacts and local adjustments

Import-dependent countries closely monitor developments to calibrate tax and subsidy policies. No Brasil, the government zeroed federal taxes on diesel and announced subsidies for producers and importers.

Petrobras maintains a strategy of not fully passing on international volatility, in accordance with regulatory rules. Essas actions aim to mitigate fuel transfers to the end consumer.

The 12% tax on Brazilian oil exports offsets potential losses and helps balance public accounts amid the global boom.

Current supply and demand context

The release of strategic reserves by 32 countries, totaling 400 million barrels, represents the largest volume ever coordinated. Apesar Furthermore, the market prioritizes geopolitical risks over the immediate increase in inventories.

The Russian volume released covers a few days of global consumption, insufficient to reverse the upward trend decisively. Demand remains firm in recovering economies.

Experts warn of continued volatility in the short term, with the possibility of new fluctuations as events in the region evolve.