Stock markets falling and oil rising with tensions between Iran and Israel and attacks in Qatar

The stock exchanges of the Estados Unidos register sharp losses this Thursday, March 19, 2026, following the military escalation in the Oriente Médio. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index drops 432 points, representing a 1% retraction, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite show drops of 0.8% and 1%, respectively. The selling move comes as the S&P 500 trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May last year, signaling a possible change in the long-term trend for US stocks.

Financial instability is directly fueled by the spike in fuel prices following new episodes of violence involving Irã, Israel and Qatar. Investors are wary of the possibility of a prolonged conflict that disrupts vital trade routes and puts further pressure on global inflation.

• Brent oil, an international reference, rose 4% and reached the mark of US$ 112 per barrel.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts rose 1%, trading at US$98 on the American market.
• The stoppage at Estreito of Ormuz blocks the flow of 20 million barrels of energy per day.

Energy crisis and attacks on strategic infrastructure

The new wave of oil appreciation is a direct response to the Israel attack against the South Pars gas field, located in Irã, considered one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world. In retaliation, Iranian forces targeted liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities in Qatar, raising the risk of a large-scale shortage. The situation worsened after the government of Israel confirmed that the operation in South Pars aimed to reduce the financing capacity of the regime of Teerã.

The president of the Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, has issued a stern warning stating that any further attack on infrastructure in the Qatar will result in a devastating military response. Trump stated that American forces are prepared to completely destroy the South Pars camp if the security of allies in the region remains under direct threat. Analistas from the private sector point out that the absence of a diplomatic solution makes the reopening of Estreito from Ormuz unlikely without the use of ground troops.

Impact on the technology and semiconductor sector

Despite a positive operating scenario, shares of Micron Technology are down 2% during this Thursday’s trading session. The downward movement comes after the company released financial results that exceeded all market expectations, almost tripling its quarterly revenue thanks to demand for artificial intelligence memories. Especialistas of the financial sector attribute the current devaluation to a profit-taking movement on the part of investors, who seek liquidity in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

Global component shortages continue to be a supporting factor for semiconductor prices, but rising energy and logistics costs pose new operational challenges. Micron highlighted that its gross margin reached record levels, but the market remains attentive to the impact of possible additional sanctions or disruptions in Asian supply chains. The technology sector, sensitive to changes in interest rates and inflation expectations, leads losses in several global indices today.

International reactions and naval security in the strait

Leaders of global powers such as Reino Unido, França, Alemanha and Japão released a joint statement expressing readiness to ensure the safe passage of vessels. The Estreito of Ormuz is the main transport route for a fifth of the world’s oil supply, and its partial closure already causes delays in shipments destined for the International military cooperation seeks to establish a protection corridor, although the Irã maintains threats of retaliation against ships operating with Western support.

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The British maritime authority confirmed that several commercial vessels were diverted from their original routes to avoid the highest risk zones in the Golfo Pérsico. The cost of insurance for oil tankers crossing the region has risen sharply in the past 48 hours, reflecting the imminent danger of further drone or missile attacks. Governos Europeans discuss emergency measures to release strategic fuel reserves if the blockade persists for more than a week, aiming to contain volatility at gas stations.

Inflationary pressure and monetary policy of the Fed

Recent data show that producer inflation in the Estados Unidos was higher than expected, reinforcing the thesis that prices could remain high for longer. Federal Reserve indicated that it will maintain a vigilant stance, and the probability of a cut in interest rates in 2026 has decreased considerably according to market monitoring tools. The combination of low economic growth and rising prices, known as stagflation, became economists’ main concern in Wall Street.

Investors are now awaiting the next statements from directors of the American Banco Central to understand how the crisis in the Oriente Médio will affect monetary policy decisions. Enquanto the conflict shows no signs of abating, assets considered safe havens, such as gold and the dollar, are appreciating against the currencies of emerging countries. The Brazilian market also feels the effects, with the Ibovespa operating in negative territory and the dollar appreciating against the real.

Outlook for market closure

Trading volume remains high, characterizing a day of strong risk aversion in all segments of the economy. Analistas technicians are closely watching whether Dow Jones will be able to recover the level of its moving average before the end of the session, which could alleviate selling pressure in the coming days. Caso airstrikes continue overnight local time, the opening of Asian markets on Friday could face new bearish gaps.

Instability in the banking sector is also monitored, as exposure to debt from energy and logistics companies can generate new sources of financial stress. At the moment, the operators’ full focus lies on diplomatic communications and the movement of military fleets in the Golfo, which will dictate the pace of negotiations until the end of the week.