Bitcoin enters consolidation and accumulation until the end of March

Bitcoin (BTC) currently trades around $69,000 after returning to the consolidation range between $65,000 and $74,000. An attempt to overcome resistance near $76,000 earlier in the week was unsuccessful, sending the asset back to previous levels. Análises’s on-chain Glassnode points to an accumulation phase in the short term, with indicators suggesting lower volatility, although there is a more pronounced defensive positioning among market participants.

The options expiration at the end of the quarter, scheduled for March 27, may bring greater clarity on investor sentiment and repositioning.

Record positioning in derivatives

Options open interest has reached a new all-time high ahead of the current quarterly expiration. Esse high volume primarily reflects short-term protection rather than strong directional bets. Após the expiration on March 27th, it is expected that the scenario of sentiment and position adjustments will become more defined.

Demand for downside hedges increased after rejection at higher levels. Investidores seek protection against possible reversals, which manifests itself in a higher premium for put options.

Drop in implied volatility

Implied cash volatility (1-week ATM IV) declined from around 70% to 53%. Longer Vencimentos also saw a decline of approximately 10 points from recent highs. Essa normalization indicates expectations of less intense fluctuations in the coming days.

Despite the reduction in implied volatility, asymmetry measures widened to the downside. The 25 delta asymmetry has returned to the 15-20% range, signaling renewed caution. The premium for puts rose, reflecting the search for protection against falls.

Dynamics of defensive flows

In the last 24 hours, purchases of put options represented 30.7% of the market, while purchases of call options were around 10%. Essa ratio highlights defensive posture after failure to maintain gains above $75,000. The put/call ratio reinforces limited momentum for sustained rallies.

In the recent upward trajectory, flows were dominated by puts above US$72,000, a classic sign of loss of strength. Durante the correction, there was a brief increase in calls, but the defensive trend prevailed.

Leia Tambem

Colby Minifie confirms Ashley Barrett’s powers in The Boys season five

Napoli x Milan in Serie A with confirmed lineups and where to watch live

New battery test puts Galaxy S26 Ultra ahead of iPhone 17 Pro Max in global ranking

Gamma exposure adjustments

Gamma short exposure at the $75,000 strike decreased from $3.9 billion to $2.4 billion in less than two days. Esse collapse of US$1.5 billion occurred as prices moved away from this level. Menor exposure to gamma reduces the need for dynamic hedges by traders.

This reduction contributes to attenuating strong directional flows. The market may experience less amplification of movements due to these recent adjustments.

Balanced Volatility Risk Premium

The volatility risk premium (VRP) was readjusted last week. Short-term Posições with reduced range were profitable as implied volatility exceeded realized volatility, but compression occurred as realized volatility increased on the way down. Agora near equilibrium, option prices appear fairer, which reinforces consolidation rather than immediate breakout.

Multi-year support approaches

Analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin approaches a multi-year trend line. Esse support has sustained significant advances in past cycles such as the 2017 run, the post-COVID recovery in 2020, and the rebound following the FTX collapse in 2022. The current zone lies between $60,000 and $56,000.

Each historic touch in this line preceded significant highs. If it holds, the area could act as a platform for the next sustained bullish phase, according to long-term technical analysis.

The market remains attentive to options expiry and on-chain indicators for additional direction signals.