Oil surpasses US$110 and stocks fall globally after Trump’s speech on war in Iran

World financial markets registered strong volatility and significant drops this Thursday, shortly after the former president’s address Donald Trump to the nation, which addressed the military escalation with Irã. The speech failed to allay the concerns of investors, who expected a sign of de-escalation or a clear solution to the conflict.

The immediate response was a sharp increase in oil prices, which were already under pressure, and a sharp devaluation on the stock markets. The geopolitical uncertainty generated by Trump’s speech intensified fears of prolonged instability in Oriente Médio, directly impacting energy supplies and global economic confidence.

This apprehension scenario reflects the market’s sensitivity to any indication of prolongation of tensions in strategic regions. The lack of a concrete plan to end the fighting or to ensure free navigation on vital trade routes has triggered a wave of sales of risky assets and a search for safe havens.

Skyrocketing oil prices and their consequences

The price of crude oil at Estados Unidos experienced an appreciation of 10%, reaching the mark of US$ 110 per barrel. Paralelamente, Brent, which serves as an international reference for the price of oil, exceeded US$ 109 per barrel, with an increase of 8%. Essa escalation reversed the falls recorded in the previous two days, highlighting the market’s immediate reaction to the instability.

In addition to crude oil, other derivatives and energy sources have also felt the impact. The prices of heating oil, which often acts as a proxy for the cost of jet fuel, and natural gas have also seen a considerable increase. Essa widespread rise suggests an overarching concern about energy security and global supply capacity in a scenario of intensified conflict.

The retreat of world stock markets

Stock futures declined sharply on Thursday morning, shortly after Trump’s speech. S&P 500 futures fell 1.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2%. Dow Jones, in turn, registered a drop of 600 points, and Russell 2000 futures fell more than 2%, reflecting risk aversion.

Investors reacted negatively to the absence of a structured proposal for a ceasefire in the president’s speech, which only promised additional “extremely harsh” attacks on Irã in the coming weeks. The lack of clarity about the outcome of the situation and the insistence on continuing the war until US military objectives were “fully achieved” undermined confidence in the market.

Direct impact on consumer fuels

Rising international oil prices quickly translated into a significant increase in fuel costs at the pump. On Thursday, the national average price of unleaded gasoline in Estados Unidos reached US$4.08 per gallon, representing a notable jump compared to the US$2.98 charged before the conflict began in the region.

This increase has a cascading effect on the economy, directly affecting consumers’ purchasing power and increasing transportation and logistics costs for companies. Diesel also did not escape the upward trend, with its price rising to US$5.51 per gallon, impacting vital sectors such as freight transport and agriculture.

Expert Analysis and Escalation Risk

Market analysts expressed concern about the stance adopted in the speech. Paul Donovan, CIO of UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that “the markets wanted something different”, indicating that the absence of a clear exit strategy had intensified the instability. An escalation, even if short-lived, such as that promised by Trump, raises the risk of retaliation by Irã, threatening vital energy infrastructure in Golfo and further disrupting global supply.

This uncertainty is not just limited to oil, but spreads across the global supply chain, creating an environment of caution for investment and long-term planning. The perception that the conflict could continue without obvious diplomatic solutions adds a layer of complexity to existing economic challenges, especially in a period of recovery or monetary adjustments.

International reactions and the strait of Ormuz

Amid the tension, the minister of Relações Exteriores of Reino Unido, Yvette Cooper, led a video conference with representatives from 35 nations, including several countries of Golfo. The main objective of the meeting was to discuss strategies to ensure the safe reopening of Estreito of Ormuz, a crucial maritime route through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply transits.

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Estados Unidos, notably, did not participate in the meeting, which raised questions about international coordination to resolve the crisis. Durante the call, Cooper emphasized that any deployment of “collective defensive military capabilities” would depend on a prior de-escalation of war intensity, suggesting a more cautious and de-escalation-focused approach before direct military interventions.

The issue of Estreito of Ormuz is central to the stability of the energy market. Trump’s statement that “Estreito will open naturally” was met with skepticism by markets, which expected a more robust plan to protect shipping and ensure the continued flow of oil. Uncertainty over this vital route continues to fuel speculation and volatility.

International coordination is seen as fundamental to containing the effects of conflict. The absence of a unified voice and lack of engagement on multilateral diplomatic platforms could make it difficult to build consensus and implement effective measures to stabilize the region.

Impact on government bonds and financing rates

US government bonds also fell on Thursday, resulting in a rise in yields. The yield on the 10-year Tesouro bond, which serves as an important benchmark for mortgage rates and other consumer loans, rose to approximately 4.37%, reflecting lower demand for these assets against a backdrop of uncertainty.

This movement has direct implications for the real estate sector and consumers. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-term mortgage, for example, reached 6.45% on Thursday, a considerable increase from the 5.99% recorded the day before the conflict began.

Economic prospects in a volatile scenario

The persistence of conflict and the lack of a clear horizon for peace bring considerable uncertainty to the global economy. Continued rising energy costs could slow growth, increase inflation and create a challenging environment for businesses and families around the world, who are already facing economic pressures from other fronts.

Global dependence on Oriente Médio oil makes economies vulnerable to supply shocks and price increases. Governos and central banks may find themselves in a dilemma, seeking to balance inflation control with the need to stimulate growth in an environment of rising costs.

Pressures on global governments and central banks

Escalating fuel prices and resulting inflation place considerable pressure on governments around the world. The need to protect consumers and maintain economic stability can lead to subsidy or intervention measures, which, in turn, can strain already compromised public budgets and complicate fiscal policies.

Central banks face the challenge of modulating their monetary policies. High inflation, driven by energy costs, could lead to monetary tightening, with increases in interest rates, which could slow economic growth and negatively impact investments and the credit market. The complexity of the situation requires coordinated responses and continuous risk assessment.

Challenges in global economic recovery

The prolonged instability in Oriente Médio adds a significant new challenge to the global economic recovery. Muitas Nations are still recovering from previous crises, and rising energy costs could derail growth efforts, making it harder for businesses to operate and for consumers to maintain their purchasing power.