Asteroid discovered days ago approaches Earth on a safe trajectory

Asteroid 2026JH2 will safely pass Terra on Monday just before Estados Unidos’s 6 p.m. Eastern Time. Astrônomos of Observatório Mount Lemmon, in Tucson, Arizona, discovered the object on May 10 and classified it as an Apollo class asteroid, whose orbits cross the Earth’s path around Sol. At closest approach, the space rock will be about 24% of the average distance between Terra and Lua.

Richard Binzel, professor of planetary sciences at Instituto of Tecnologia of Massachusetts, confirms that there is no risk of impact. “Object 2026JH2 will pass through Terra safely,” it said in a statement. Segundo Binzel, events of this nature are quite common — objects the size of a car pass between Terra and Lua every week, while objects the size of a school bus pass through the region several times a year.

Origem and characteristics of nearby asteroids

The asteroid originates from the asteroid belt, a region located between Marte and Júpiter. Binzel explained that occasional collisions in that area, added to the gravitational force of Júpiter, send small asteroids to Earth’s vicinity. Esse phenomenon has been known for decades and there are already records of the existence of thousands of asteroids that could pass close to Terra.

The exact size of 2026JH2 remains unknown. Estimativas based on the amount of reflected light indicates a diameter between 15 and 30 meters. Patrick Michel, astrophysicist and research director of Centro Nacional of Pesquisa Científica of França, explains the difficulty:

• Telescópios optics only collect luminosity information in visible light
• Não can determine how much the object absorbs or reflects light
• Observações in infrared would provide accurate size data
• Essas observations are more difficult to perform than Terra

At the lower end of the size estimate, the asteroid would be similar to the bolide that exploded over Chelyabinsk in Rússia in 2013, shattering windows and injuring a thousand people. At the upper limit, it would approach the object that exploded near the river Podkamennaya Tunguska, at Sibéria, in 1908, devastating large forest areas. Diferentemente of these two historical events, 2026JH2 will not enter the Earth’s atmosphere.

Distância Security and Observation

Embora proximity appears significant, remains sufficiently distant to not pose any concern. Patrick Michel points out that predicting the asteroid’s future trajectory is challenging and the possibility of a collision cannot be completely ruled out. “The good news is that, so far, no asteroid that we know of poses a risk for the period of our predictions, which is about a century on average,” he added.

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Durante its closest approach, 2026JH2 will only be detectable with small telescopes in low-light locations. Jean-Luc Margot, Terra, Universidade Professor of Planetary and Space Sciences at Califórnia at Los Angeles, pointed out that the object will remain 100 times fainter than needed to be seen with the naked eye. A partial live feed of the passage will be provided by Projeto Telescópio Virtual, using instruments on Itália, starting at 3:45 pm Eastern Time.

Capacidades reduced observation

The lack of more detailed information about the asteroid reflects degradation in available planetary radar capabilities. Arecibo’s telescope collapsed in 2020, and NASA’s Goldstone antenna is out of service for major repairs for an undetermined period of time. Sem radar data, astronomers are less able to accurately assess impact risks.

Margot reported that scientists have observed only about 1% of the asteroids near Terra that are the same size as 2026JH2. “It is not surprising that this object was discovered just a few days before its closest approach to Terra, when it became bright enough to be detected by asteroid surveys,” he commented. Ainda Although the late discovery is concerning regarding complete knowledge about nearby objects, space agencies are actively funding discovery research to improve the inventory of potentially hazardous asteroids.

Futuro: Apophis in 2029

A significantly larger object, called Apophis, will pass much closer to Terra on April 13, 2029, at a projected distance of 32,000 kilometers. Michel expressed enthusiasm about the event: “We are not worried at all, on the contrary, we are very excited. Such a close approach to such a large object only occurs once every few thousand years and its light will be visible to the naked eye in the night sky of Europa, África and part of Oriente Médio.” Esse event will offer a unique scientific opportunity to observe and study a large asteroid in a controlled trajectory.