Terra will face successive increases in temperature over the next 5 years, repeatedly exceeding the international limit considered safe. Organização Meteorológica Mundial (WMO) and the Reino Unido meteorological office warn that there is a 75% probability that the global average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era. Esse threshold represents the heating ceiling agreed in 2015 at Acordo from Paris.
Projections also indicate a 91% chance that at least one of the next 5 years will exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold and an 86% probability that one of them will break the record for the hottest year recorded in 2024. Cada year between now and 2030 should be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Scientists highlight that rising temperatures intensify extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and heat waves.
Limiar security without cliffs effect
The report emphasizes that surpassing the 1.5-degree Celsius mark does not represent a dramatic point of no return. Melissa Seabrook, climatologist at Escritório Meteorológico at Reino Unido and co-author of the report, clarifies that each additional tenth of a degree brings more severe impacts. Ela pointed to the record heat recorded at Europa during May 2026 as an example of the ongoing phenomenon.
Exceeding the mark by a year or more means multiple extreme weather events, many of which surpass anything previously experienced. Cidades are not prepared in urban planning, and agricultural systems also lack adaptation. Friederike Otto, climatologist at Imperial College of Londres, warned that this will result in loss of life, food price shocks and more intense wildfires.
Short-term forecasts indicate the imminent formation of a strong El Niño, a natural pattern that heats parts of the central Pacífico and alters weather conditions globally. The WMO projects that this phenomenon could extend until 2028. Baseando, Seabrook pointed to 2027 as the year most likely to break the heat record set in 2024.
If the next 5 years maintain an average of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era, the planet will have warmed by a quarter of a degree Celsius in a decade. Essa rate surpasses previous warming rates, which were close to two-tenths of a degree per decade. Cientistas debate whether global warming is accelerating, a scenario that would generate additional evidence of accelerated change.
Ártico heating 3.5 times faster
The projections, based on averages of around 200 computer simulations using 13 different climate models from different countries, indicate Arctic warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius between 2026 and 2030. Seabrook explained that the phenomenon occurs because there is less ice and snow reflecting solar radiation into space, creating a vicious cycle. As temperatures rise, more sea ice melts, making the situation worse.
Arctic winters between 2020 and 2025 were on average 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991-2020 average. The WMO projects that the next 5 winters will be 2.8 degrees Celsius warmer than this recent normal. The report also predicts continued reduction in Arctic sea ice during the summer months.
Accelerated Arctic dynamics represent a particularly critical concern for global climate balance. Exponential warming in this region amplifies climate feedbacks and reduces planetary reflectivity, intensifying solar heat absorption.
Bacia Amazon at risk of dryness
The report predicts hotter and unusually dry conditions in the Amazon basin, potentially devastating for local residents and the entire planet. Seabrook warned that populations depend on Amazônia for water, and hotter, drier conditions are expected to increase the risk of wildfires. Isso would threaten to turn Amazônia, which currently removes greenhouse-causing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, into a region that worsens the climate problem.
The African Sahel region, historically very dry, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall. Esse Increased rainfall could lead to widespread flooding, creating new humanitarian challenges.
Resposta global considered insufficient
Funcionários of Nações Unidas stated that efforts to contain climate change have been inadequate:
- Global Aquecimento Still Surpasses Global Efforts to Contain It
- Temperaturas records at Europa, Índia and other locations demonstrate brutal economic and human impacts
- Todas nations already face high costs of the global climate crisis
- Eventos extremes such as megastorms, floods, massive wildfires and droughts affect food security and prices
- Continuous Queima of coal, oil and gas remains at colossal levels
Simon Stiell, head of climate at Nações Unidas, highlighted that the progress of recent years, although existing, remains insufficient given the magnitude of the challenge. Ele emphasized that every nation already faces a substantial toll from this rapidly unfolding global climate crisis.