The 2026 World Cup begins this Thursday, June 11, with the opening game between Mexico and South Africa at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City. For the first time, the tournament brings together 48 teams in three host countries — the United States, Mexico and Canada —, which increases the number of games to 104 and leaves room for surprises, but also reinforces the favoritism of teams with deep squads and recent experience in major competitions.
Bookmakers and statistical models such as Opta and Gato Mestre point to an elite squad with a clear advantage. Spain appears as the main candidate in most analyses, driven by the Euro 2024 title and a talented generation led by Pedri and Lamine Yamal.
Spain and France share the top of the projections
The Spanish team leads recent rankings with probabilities between 15% and 17% of winning the title, according to simulations. The team arrives in good shape, with a consolidated ball possession style and few serious injuries reported at the moment.
Right behind is France, with an enviably deep squad and Kylian Mbappé at his peak. The French have the second best chance across several models and have experience from recent finals, including the one in 2022. The combination of individual talent and tactical structure keeps the team as one of the most feared.
England and Argentina complete the group of most highly rated
England, third in many lists, is betting on the golden generation that includes Harry Kane and a solid defense, now under the command of Thomas Tuchel. The odds indicate real potential to go far, especially in a long tournament with more games.
Argentina, current champion, appears soon after. Even with Lionel Messi already in the final stages of his career, the team maintains collective strength, with players like Julián Álvarez and a defense that has suffered little in recent competitions. The Copa América 2024 title reinforces the candidate status.
Brazil seeks sixth with valuable squad but recent challenges
Brazil is consistently in the top 6 or 7, with estimated chances of between 5% and 9% depending on the source. The five-time champion has the most valuable squad in the world in terms of market, especially Vinicius Junior, and has Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. However, the irregular campaign in the Qualifiers raised questions about consistency.
The team’s group (Morocco, Haiti and Scotland) is considered accessible, which could allow for better preparation for the knockout stages. The history of five titles is in their favor, but performance on the field in recent competitions requires rapid evolution.
Other names that appear on the radar
Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands complete a large part of the top 8 rankings. Germany is undergoing reconstruction under Julian Nagelsmann, Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo in a possible last dance and the Netherlands brings a tradition of competitive teams.
The expanded format can benefit teams with rotation and squad depth, as the calendar will be more demanding. History shows that favorites don’t always win — like Argentina in 2002 or the Austrians in past editions — but the current balance between Europeans and South Americans promises an open tournament.