When does winter start? New season arrives in Brazil on Sunday with intense cold and above-average rain forecast in the South
The coldest season of the year, the winter of 2026, will officially begin at 5:24 am next Sunday (21), following Brasília time. This moment marks the solstice, which results in the longest night of the year. However, the first signs of low temperatures should appear over the weekend, mainly affecting the Center-South region of the country.
The main characteristics of the station in Brazil
According to Climatempo projections, the climate pattern for this winter indicates a strong presence of low temperatures in the initial period. The South is also expected to experience volumes of rain higher than the historical average, while the Southeast and Midwest may record unusual rainfall for the season.
For the North and Northeast regions, the expectation is for dry weather and high temperatures to predominate during the seasonal months.
The month of July is seen as the harshest of the winter, with the forecast of the arrival of two intense masses of polar air, one in the middle and the other at the end of the period. These cold fronts are capable of causing frost and temperature drops to negative levels in the South and in some locations in the Southeast.
There is a projection that one of these polar air masses will be able to advance and bring the cold to areas further north, such as Goiânia, Brasília, the north of Minas Gerais and the extreme south of Bahia.
An unusual phenomenon, snow has a higher probability of occurring in the regions of the mountains of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, especially in the first days of winter and during the month of July.
However, the first wave of intense cold is expected to appear even before the broader projections for July. A powerful mass of polar air is expected to enter the national territory between the 22nd and 30th of June.
This icy front should impact the South, portions of the Southeast and Midwest. The same air of polar origin can also cause cold in areas of the Amazon, including Rondônia, Acre and southern Amazonas.
“The beginning of the cold season tends to be characterized by a greater occurrence of freezing periods. At this time, air masses of polar origin should move more regularly across the country, reaching even regions in the North of Brazil and causing sharp drops in temperatures,” details César Soares, meteorologist at Climatempo.
From the second half of August onwards, a decrease in the intensity of polar air masses is observed, with temperatures showing an increase, often exceeding the historical average values for the time.
Leia Também
Messi reaches 19 goals in FIFA World Cups with great free kick for Argentina in clash with Jordan
Cristiano Ronaldo shines beyond the pitch at the 2026 World Cup with business empire and family luxury
At 41, Cristiano Ronaldo reaffirms his historic legacy and prepares to shine in the 2026 World Cup
In August, heat peaks are expected in regions such as the Central-West, Southeast, North and Northeast.
During the final weeks of the season, in September, there is an increase in the possibility of heat waves, mainly in the Central-West, North and Northeast of Brazil.
“In the final stage of winter, especially from the second half of August onwards, the intensity of the cold tends to decrease. The projection is that temperatures will register lower values and, in certain areas, even exceed the usual climatological average for this period,” adds meteorologist César Soares.
Regarding the issue of precipitation, the South region remains in the spotlight. The more recurrent passage of cold fronts should contribute to an increase in humidity, and the southwest of Paraná could experience significantly higher than average rainfall.
The storms, however, are expected to occur in a more localized manner, without the same amplitude observed during the year 2024.
In the Southeast and Central-West, where winter is traditionally characterized by low humidity, rain showers outside the usual period are expected at different times during the quarter.
Even with occasional rain, most of these two regions will face many days with dry air and a notable temperature variation between the morning and afternoon periods.
In turn, the extreme north of Brazil and the eastern portion of the Northeast are expected to experience drier conditions than normal. This combination of dry weather and intense heat keeps the alert for the occurrence of fires, especially in the Matopiba region, which encompasses areas of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia.
The El Niño climate phenomenon, which officially reestablished itself in the first week of June, is a crucial factor. It should exert a significant influence on meteorological behavior, especially in the second half of winter, tending to intensify rain patterns in some regions and drought in others, as is typical of its strengthening.
This phenomenon, characterized by the anomalous warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, is rapidly strengthening and projections indicate that it could reach strong to very strong intensity in the coming months.
Clarifying the phenomena: snow, rain and frost
Below is a breakdown of meteorologists’ expectations for each month throughout the season:
Specific predictions for July
- Considered the coldest period of winter, July will have two powerful polar air masses, with one expected in the middle and the other at the end of the month. They should advance over the South, Southeast and Center-West, and may extend to the north of Minas Gerais and the southern portion of Bahia.
- The South region may experience days of severe cold, with negative temperatures in higher altitude locations. There is a chance of snow occurring in the mountains of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.
- Rainfall is expected to exceed the historical average in the South, especially in the southwest of Paraná. In other regions, the weather will remain drier, with isolated precipitation.
- In the Central-West and inland areas of the Northeast, the days will be predominantly hot, but with a significant temperature range between the early hours of the morning and the afternoon.
- States such as Rondônia and Acre, in addition to the south of Amazonas, may experience the cold phenomenon throughout July.
