Super El Niño and cold anomaly in the Atlantic: Forecasts indicate severe winter for 2026/2027

A mass of water ice is forming and growing in the far northern Atlantic Ocean, an area historically associated with significant cooling events. The most recent ocean analyzes reveal that this “cold patch” is expanding, with forecast models indicating its likely persistence until the winter of 2026/2027.

This situation is crucial, as the North Atlantic does not operate in isolation from the atmosphere. Temperature anomalies in this region often precede or signal large changes in atmospheric pressure and the jet stream. Past events with similar characteristics have been followed by a specific pattern of winter pressure anomaly over North America.

Simultaneously, a powerful Super El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, adding an even more potent global influence to seasonal patterns. The combination of the cold air mass in the Atlantic and the Super El Niño signals already offers strong preliminary indications about the pressure and temperature conditions for the winter of 2026/2027 in the United States, Canada and Europe, configuring a rare and highly impactful climate scenario.

The complex dynamics of ocean currents in the North Atlantic

The North Atlantic currents are part of a vast system known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This robust oceanic system is responsible for transporting warmer waters from the tropics to the North Atlantic, and is also recognized as the Gulf Stream in its central part. Its range covers the entire east coast of the United States, curving northeast and reaching the Arctic Circle.

The areas of cold anomaly that are commonly observed develop in the northernmost portions of the Atlantic, in or around the subpolar gyre, east of Newfoundland.

This powerful current of warm water exerts a direct influence on the climate of the eastern United States and Europe. For example, it helps keep temperatures milder in the winter and cooler in the summer along the entire American East Coast, with this effect being particularly notable in Florida.

The ocean current system is vital to climate and weather in the Northern Hemisphere, transporting immense amounts of heat and energy from the tropics to the north. However, recent data suggests that the AMOC system has been slowing down or even entering a process of collapse.

Computer model simulations illustrate what would happen if the AMOC weakened. They indicate a warming of the oceanic region on the east coast of the United States and a marked cooling of the North Atlantic.

Observations of actual ocean temperature trends over time show an almost identical scenario to the AMOC weakening simulation. This validates the hypothesis that the system is indeed weakening, possibly faster than initial predictions indicated.

This particular “thermal signature”, characterized by the warm area of ​​the Gulf Stream and the cold in the North Atlantic, is one of the strongest indicators of the weakening of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation). Furthermore, direct instrumental observations have confirmed that the North Atlantic circulation is declining.

We then arrive at the present day, in which a new cooling trend is noticed in the North Atlantic. The data points to the formation and increase of a new “cold spot” pattern, expected to last until 2027. It is worth noting that the term “cold spot” is frequently used by scientists and disseminated in the media and scientific literature.

The return and expansion of the cold temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic

The historical trend shows that cooling usually occurs in the northern regions of the Atlantic, where ocean currents begin their submersion. However, as cold anomalies are closer to the surface, cooling is also associated with persistent weather patterns.

The most recent analysis of the North Atlantic surface temperature anomaly, collected by NOAA CRW, reveals a distinct area of ​​cold ocean extending toward the Gulf Stream. This anomaly is considerably larger than that recorded last year, confirming the long-term cooling trend in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Another analysis of the surface temperature anomaly, using a seven-day average for the last week of June, shows that the main cold region is interconnected with the Gulf Stream and extends to the east coast of the United States. This pattern demonstrates greater organization and stability.

When examining the temperature variation over a 30-day period, a cooling trend is noted in the extreme north of the Atlantic. Interestingly, the Gulf Stream’s temperature anomalies stand out toward the United States, with areas of cooling identified within the current’s flow.

An even more revealing analysis is the one-year difference in surface temperatures during the last week of June. It shows that the North Atlantic is significantly colder now than it was at the same time last year. The Gulf Stream region, in particular, experiences temperatures several degrees cooler.

The main area of ​​cold water mass exhibits ocean temperatures between 0.5 and 2 degrees cooler than the same period last year, representing a notable change.

From a global perspective, the cold area in the North Atlantic contrasts sharply with the powerful Super El Niño manifesting in the tropical Pacific Ocean. There is also a cold anomaly in the tropical Atlantic, a topic worthy of future discussion.

The strong connection between the ocean and the atmosphere on a planetary scale suggests that this “three-headed” pattern indicates intense seasonal climate dynamics on the horizon.

The persistence of the influence of the cold Atlantic and Super El Niño on seasonal forecasts

With the most recent long-term forecasts, it is possible to assess how this cold anomaly should evolve as the winter of 2026/2027 approaches. For July 2026, forecasts show persistent cold anomalies in the far north Atlantic. There is also a clear cold connection with the Gulf Stream, while warm anomalies intensify in the Pacific, creating a unique atmospheric configuration.

When looking at the forecast for December, the cold anomaly remains present and similar in size, maintaining a cold extension in the Gulf Stream. This means that the cold anomaly is not a passing weekly event, but a long-term feature capable of serving as an indicator of future climate trends.

Also for December, a global perspective of the forecast highlights the strong contrast between the Super El Niño in the Pacific and the cooling in the North Atlantic. Oceans act as both indicators and influencers, making this a rare and vital configuration for the development of seasonal climate.

Analyzes for the full period from June to December 2026, based on ECMWF projections, show the persistence and even intensification of cold anomalies later in the year as Super El Niño reaches its peak strength in the Pacific.

This scenario can be analyzed using data from past decades, looking for a connection between the ocean and the atmosphere on a seasonal scale.

The Intersection of Ocean and Atmosphere in North American Weather Patterns

NOAA PSL reanalysis tools are frequently used, which allow you to correlate and examine a wide range of oceanic and atmospheric data from recent decades.

A clear connection revealed by these tools demonstrates corresponding ocean anomalies, such as the cold North Atlantic and warmer anomalies off the west coast of the United States. The atmospheric pattern associated with this connection is called the Pacific-North America pattern, or PNA.

Basically, this suggests that a low pressure anomaly in the Atlantic during autumn corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in winter. This does not imply that the cold Atlantic area is the direct cause of this pattern, but rather that it indicates an existing link, useful for seasonal forecasts.

The PNA, which stands for Pacific-North American Pattern, has positive and negative phases, explaining the pressure anomalies between the North Pacific and North America. In a positive PNA phase, NOAA Climate data shows a characteristic winter pressure anomaly.

A positive PNA pattern typically indicates a high pressure system over the northwestern United States and Canada. Consequently, it generates an area of ​​low pressure over the central, southern and eastern United States, which can induce a more northerly flow in these regions.

Temperature analysis for a positive PNA phase reveals strong temperature anomalies beneath the high pressure area in the northern United States and western Canada. However, colder than normal winter temperatures are observed in the southern and eastern regions of the United States.

In summary, it has historically been observed that a cold anomaly in the extreme north of the Atlantic is often followed by a positive PNA pattern during the winter in the United States and Canada. While the cold anomaly itself may not be solely responsible for a colder winter in the eastern United States, it could serve as a valuable indicator of future conditions.

However, this year, a much more robust influencing factor is emerging: Super El Niño. Analysis of winters during the last four Super El Niño events shows a pattern very similar to the positive PNA. There is a strong low pressure area in the North Pacific, a high pressure region over Canada, and a warm ridge in Europe.

The low pressure area over the United States is also notable, giving the overall pattern a positive PNA appearance. The difference is that, in a Super El Niño, the high pressure area over Canada is located a little further east.

A correlation between ENSO phases and the PNA index for North America indicates that a stronger El Niño favors the development of a positive PNA.

This confirms the idea that the Atlantic cold anomaly may be a secondary effect of a broader change in the global climate system, which is migrating towards a Super El Niño regime.

Ocean anomalies often serve as indicators of large-scale changes in the atmosphere. By comparing various atmospheric and oceanic patterns from the past, it is possible to see how everything fits together, offering a strong indication of the interconnectedness of this global system and foreshadowing long-term developments in the coming months.

First indications of strong atmospheric anomalies for the winter of 2026/2027

To get more detailed evidence about winter, we can go back a decade, to the period 2014-2015. At that time, one of the most intense cold air masses in the North Atlantic was recorded in recent times.

Ocean temperatures during this period exhibited a well-known pattern: a cold anomaly in the far north of the Atlantic, combined with warmer waters off the west coast of the United States and Canada. This was exactly the predicted pattern for a positive winter development in the North Pacific.

Analysis of atmospheric pressure for the winters of that period demonstrates a clear positive PNA signature, with higher pressure over the western and northwestern United States and western Canada. An area of ​​low pressure was present over the eastern United States, Midwest, and eastern Canada, although individual patterns may vary annually.

The resulting winter temperature pattern showed colder than normal temperatures in the Midwest, across the eastern United States, and eastern Canada. This configuration was driven by a polar vortex core over the east, generating a northerly airflow over the eastern half of the United States and Canada.

A very similar analysis was conducted during the same period last year, when a similar cold area was observed in the Atlantic and a warm pattern in the Pacific. The final analysis from the second half of last year revealed a signature similar to that observed between 2014 and 2016 and now, but with weaker cold anomalies.

Last winter’s actual pressure and temperature anomalies were surprisingly similar to those from the 2014-2016 period. A low pressure system was identified over northern Canada and the eastern United States, accompanied by blocking high pressure over Greenland and a vast area of ​​low pressure over Western Europe.

In terms of temperature, this resulted in a cold corridor stretching from western Canada to the eastern United States, fed by a local core of the Polar Vortex in the east. In Europe, warm anomalies were observed in the central, western and southern regions, and cold anomalies in the northern regions.

Now, the latest long-range forecasts offer clues about early winter weather patterns. These projections already point to the cold air mass anomaly in the Atlantic, El Niño and the Pacific climate pattern, allowing a good understanding of what to expect, even with the long forecast period.

The pressure forecast for December 2026, coming from the ECMWF and CanSIPS models, shows a strong positive PNA pattern. Both models indicate a high pressure system over Canada, a deep low pressure in the North Pacific, and a low pressure zone over the central and southern United States.

Although these forecasts are long-term, they reveal an almost identical pattern for the start of the winter of 2026/2027. This consistency makes sense, as the presence of robust global factors, such as a Super El Niño, and a strong contrast with the Atlantic cold anomaly, makes it easier for models to capture these long-term seasonal signals in advance.

Another model, the CFS from the United States Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which covers the entire winter period of 2026/2027, corroborates these projections. The CFS atmospheric pressure forecast displays an identical pattern to the previous ones, with a clear Super El Niño and a positive low pressure area (PNA) over North America, accompanied by a ridge of high pressure towards Europe.

The CFS temperature forecast for each winter month (December through February) indicates an El Niño pattern that causes heat anomalies in the northern United States and Canada. However, there is a growing cold air anomaly over the central, southern and eastern United States.

This scenario demonstrates an evolving winter pattern, often associated with El Niño events. With a potentially strong El Niño developing for 2026/2027, all model predictions point to very convincing and exceptionally early winter scenarios.

The same model also projects an evolving winter temperature pattern in Europe, but in the opposite direction. As winter progresses, more elevated temperature anomalies are observed. This is likely attributed to the ridge of high pressure rising from the south, a phenomenon typical of Super El Niño winters.

In short, the forecast cold anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean, Super El Niño, and the resulting winter weather patterns in the United States, Canada, and Europe demonstrate a remarkable coincidence with past events. This correlation reinforces research into the connection between these regions and climate patterns in North America and Europe.

In short, oceanic anomalies can be seen as indicators on the planet’s “control panel”, signaling ongoing processes. By analyzing what nature communicates to us and the climatic phenomena that occurred in passing events, we can anticipate and understand possible future developments.