FIFA promises in check: 2026 World Cup projects record pollution and emissions

Bola Copa do Mundo - reprodução
Photo: Bola Copa do Mundo - reprodução

The next FIFA World Cup, scheduled for 2026 and to be jointly hosted by Canada, the United States and Mexico, emerges as an unprecedented environmental challenge. Projections indicate that the event could generate more than 9 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e), marking the largest climate impact in the tournament’s history. This alarming volume far exceeds emissions from previous editions, raising serious questions about the sustainability promises of football’s highest entity.

The expanded format and geographic distances amplify emissions

The increase from 32 to 48 teams and from 64 to 104 matches is one of the main factors contributing to the predicted pollution record. The host cities, now 16, are spread across three countries, with continental distances that will require frequent flights by fans, delegations and teams. Travel between locations such as Vancouver, on the west coast of Canada, Miami, in the south of the USA, and Mexico City, demonstrate the logistical scale of the challenge.

Specialist studies reveal that transport will be responsible for more than 85% of the event’s total carbon footprint. This intense air movement, crucial to connecting different regions, calls into question any serious decarbonization goal, as pointed out by analyzes such as that of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The environmental impact predicted for the 2026 World Cup is equivalent to the annual emissions of around 6.5 million medium-sized cars in the United Kingdom.

The comparison with Qatar and rising carbon projections

The 2022 World Cup, held in Qatar, officially recorded around 3.6 million tonnes of CO₂e and has already faced significant criticism due to refrigerated stadiums and the construction of new infrastructure. However, projections for 2026 are dramatically higher, even with the predominant use of existing stadiums. The geographical dispersion and the number of matches of the new format multiply the environmental problem, showing that the volume of indirect emissions is the great villain.

Estimates for the next edition range from 7.8 million tons in more conservative analyses, and could reach up to 13 million in scenarios considered more pessimistic. The discrepancy between editions demonstrates a worrying trend of growing carbon footprints at major sporting events, despite growing awareness of the climate crisis.

FIFA’s sustainability pledges are challenged by critics

FIFA has released a sustainability strategy based on social, environmental, economic and governance pillars for the 2026 tournament. The entity highlights measures such as the use of existing infrastructure, recycling initiatives and more efficient lighting systems in stadiums. However, these actions have often been classified by critics as a form of greenwashing.

The main gap highlighted is the insufficiency of measures to compensate for the gigantic volume of indirect emissions, especially those generated by long-distance travel (Scope 3). A report titled “FIFA’s Climate Blind Spot” estimates that total emissions will exceed 9 million tons, a figure that represents almost double the historical average recorded in recent tournaments.

Climate risks and the problem of “maladaptation” in hot climates

In addition to direct emissions from the event, the weather conditions expected in several American host cities represent an additional challenge. High temperatures will require intense use of air conditioning systems in stadiums to protect both players and the public. This practice, although it aims to mitigate the effects of extreme heat, ends up generating more greenhouse gas emissions.

Experts define this approach as “maladaptation”: measures implemented to combat the impacts of climate change that, paradoxically, end up worsening the causes of the problem. The scenario of the 2026 World Cup, with its need for thermal comfort in the midst of an event with a high carbon footprint, illustrates a complex dilemma for organizing large-scale events on a warming planet.

The future of mega sporting events facing planetary limits

The hosting of the 2026 World Cup comes at a critical time, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of the closing window of opportunity for effective climate action. Major sporting events like this act as a barometer for assessing global sport’s ability to balance the passion and scope of its events with the planet’s ecological limits.

Without a concrete reduction in the number of matches or the geographical spread of venues, FIFA’s ambitions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 are met with considerable skepticism. The demand for a more sustainable model aligned with environmental challenges has grown among fans and sponsors. Experts argue that future editions prioritize more compact and regional venues, instead of continually expanding the tournament, seeking a balance that prioritizes the well-being of the planet above profit and audience. The 2026 edition appears as an urgent warning: football, like other industries, urgently needs to rethink its game.

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