Recent research conducted by the University of Michigan and published in Science magazine on August 27 shows that El Niño events have intensified by almost 40% in the last four decades. The study, released on September 2, 2026, compared the current strength of the phenomenon with the pre-industrial period, revealing a significant increase.
Increased strength of El Niño and the pre-industrial era
Scientists examined coral records in the Galápagos Islands and noted that the intensity of recent El Niños exceeds any other episode since around 1850. This time frame is crucial, as it coincides with the beginning of substantial human influence on climate through the release of greenhouse gases. Julia Cole, professor and chair of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Miami, said: “We do not see a period in the past when El Niño was as strong as it is today, and we have shown that El Niño intensity changes in parallel with warming global temperatures.”
The role of corals in climate reconstruction
- They grow about one to two centimeters per year.
- They form layers of calcium carbonate, like tree rings.
- These layers record information about environmental conditions, including seawater temperature at the time of growth.
Understanding the formation of the El Niño phenomenon
In their typical occurrence, trade winds, which are constant and moist air currents, blow from east to west in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. This flow directs warm waters off the coast of South America toward Australia and Indonesia. However, when these winds lose strength, the heated water mass reverses its course, returning east, towards the South American continent. This change in ocean dynamics significantly alters sea surface temperatures, triggering the phenomenon known as El Niño.
Connection between El Niño and global warming
The research highlights a worrying correlation between the increasing intensity of El Niño and global warming. Professor Julia Cole emphasized that the strength observed in recent events is unprecedented in the climate history recorded by corals. This evidence reinforces the thesis that human influence, mainly through the emission of greenhouse gases, is altering natural climate patterns in an accelerated and significant way.
Implications of a stronger El Niño for the planet
An El Niño with high intensity, such as the one being observed, brings with it potential severe impacts in several regions of the globe. Historically, the phenomenon causes a series of climate changes, including prolonged droughts in some areas and torrential rains in others. For Latin America, for example, a more robust El Niño could mean increased risks of extreme events, affecting agriculture, water resources and ecosystems, which demands urgent attention and adaptation strategies.
