BRICS nations gather in Delhi, navigating complex US geopolitical pressures and de-dollarization ambitions

Leaders from the expanded BRICS bloc are convening in Delhi this week, with discussions expected to span a broad spectrum of global issues, from economic cooperation to geopolitical strategy. The summit, hosted by India, brings together eleven member states, including China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, the UAE, and Iran, alongside Saudi Arabia attending as an invited participant. While the United States is not a member, the summit’s agenda and potential outcomes are profoundly influenced by Washington’s current and anticipated foreign policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump, whose past actions continue to cast a long shadow over international relations.

The global economic climate, marked by volatility in energy markets and uncertainty stemming from the protracted conflict in Iran, coupled with the persistent threat of tariffs from the White House, creates a challenging backdrop for these discussions. These factors have frequently left international markets guessing about future stability and trade dynamics, directly impacting the strategic considerations of BRICS members.

Despite the pressing need for a unified response to these external pressures, the diverse interests within the rapidly expanding BRICS group are likely to temper any strong, overt condemnation of US policies. Achieving a consensus statement that directly challenges Washington or outlines a coordinated counter-strategy remains a significant diplomatic hurdle for the host nation, India, and the bloc as a whole.

Geopolitical landscape and US influence

The specter of US tariffs, previously aimed at both perceived adversaries and traditional allies, has destabilized crucial global energy flows and introduced an element of unpredictability into international trade. This environment compels BRICS leaders to consider their collective economic vulnerabilities and explore avenues for greater self-reliance, even as direct confrontation with Washington is largely avoided due to varied national interests.

Furthermore, the ongoing conflict in Iran and its broader regional repercussions are expected to feature prominently on the summit’s agenda. The conflict not only impacts global energy prices but also highlights the complex security alliances and rivalries that exist among BRICS members, making it challenging to forge a united stance on sensitive geopolitical matters.

Internal fissures and policy challenges

The BRICS bloc, despite its growing geopolitical and economic weight, faces deep internal divisions regarding the extent to which it should directly challenge Washington’s global dominance. Experts like Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, highlight that certain members, such as India, are in a delicate position, balancing their alignment within BRICS with crucial bilateral ties.

India, for instance, is reportedly nearing the final stages of a significant trade agreement with the United States, making it politically unfeasible for Delhi to endorse any joint statement that could provoke a negative reaction from the White House. Similarly, China, while often at odds with US trade policies, may exercise caution to avoid being perceived as using BRICS as an explicit platform to target Washington, which could escalate tensions.

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The United Arab Emirates, another influential member, hosts substantial US military bases and has recently faced attacks during Tehran’s retaliatory actions against US and Israeli strikes. This security dynamic makes it highly improbable that the UAE would support a statement perceived as advancing Iran’s agenda or directly opposing US interests, further complicating the pursuit of a unified position on regional conflicts.

Economic leverage and alternative mechanisms

Over the past decade, BRICS has significantly expanded its economic and geopolitical influence. While the group may shy away from adopting an overtly anti-US or anti-Western stance, it is actively seeking to build upon its existing achievements and demonstrate its viability as an alternative to established blocs like the G7 and G20.

The bloc now represents a substantial portion of the global population, accounting for 49% of the world’s inhabitants, approximately 40% of global GDP, and 26% of international trade. This considerable collective power provides a strong foundation for advocating for reforms in global governance and financial institutions that better reflect the current multipolar world order.

Advancing global south representation

A key objective for BRICS members is to position the group as a collective voice for developing nations. This involves advocating for significant reforms within international bodies such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank, which many developing countries believe do not adequately represent their interests or the evolving global landscape.

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The bloc’s most tangible success to date is the New Development Bank, which has approved billions of dollars for infrastructure and development projects, primarily in countries across the Global South. This initiative underscores BRICS’ commitment to fostering sustainable development and providing financial alternatives to traditional Western-dominated institutions.

Additionally, the group has established a $100 billion contingency reserve arrangement, designed to provide financial assistance to member states facing economic crises. While this mechanism has yet to be fully tested, it represents a crucial step towards strengthening financial resilience within the bloc and reducing reliance on external aid from traditional lenders.

India’s diplomatic tightrope walk

For India, hosting the summit presents a critical opportunity to reinforce its claims to leadership within the Global South. Many of Delhi’s core foreign policy objectives, including the promotion of multilateralism, a more multipolar international system, enhanced representation for developing countries, and freer global trade, align closely with the broader agenda of BRICS.

However, India must also deftly navigate the considerable influence of China within the BRICS framework, especially given Beijing’s strong economic and political presence across much of the developing world. While the Modi government has actively emphasized its role as a “leader or a voice of the Global South,” its efforts to deepen ties in regions like Africa and Latin America have seen limited success compared to China’s more extensive inroads.

The expanded BRICS grouping, with its diverse membership, offers India a valuable platform to cultivate stronger relationships with nations such as Ethiopia, Brazil, and Indonesia, thereby enhancing its diplomatic profile across Africa and Latin America. This strategic outreach is vital for India’s aspirations to play a more prominent role on the world stage.

Leaders are also expected to explore ways to simplify cross-border payments using local currencies, a move that holds particular interest for countries facing severe US sanctions, such as Russia and Iran. This initiative is part of a broader effort to reduce the global trade’s dependence on the US dollar, a phenomenon often referred to as de-dollarization, which former President Trump has vocally opposed, threatening “100% tariffs” on nations backing alternative currencies in November 2024.

The path to consensus

A key measure of success for India as the host nation will be its ability to secure a comprehensive consensus statement from the summit. This task is inherently difficult, given the sharp divergences among members on issues such as the conflict in Iran, their respective relationships with the United States, and the future direction of global trade policies. The challenge was evident in May, when BRICS foreign ministers failed to agree on a joint statement due to disagreements over the Iran conflict, leading India to issue a chair’s summary instead. Nevertheless, Delhi can draw confidence from its experience hosting the G20 summit in 2023, where it successfully secured a joint declaration despite profound divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine.