Deutsche Bank upgraded Netflix shares from hold to buy on Tuesday (29) in New York, setting a price target of $95 that points to a 37% upside potential. The decision, led by media and entertainment analyst Bryan Kraft, challenges the cautious tone that has dominated Wall Street over the streaming company throughout 2026.

Following the report and its subsequent discussion on CNBC television program Fast Money at 18:07 EDT (19:07 Brasília time), Netflix shares gained approximately 2% by the close of the trading session. The revised target represents an adjustment from the previous $100 valuation, yet Kraft argued that the market has excessively discounted the firm after prolonged selling pressure.

Bryan Kraft identifies valuation disconnect on Wall Street

The core thesis from Deutsche Bank rests on what the bank characterizes as an overreaction by financial markets to domestic viewing metrics in the United States. According to Kraft, institutional investors are overly focused on domestic screen time while missing sustained momentum across international markets, where viewer engagement increased year over year in each of the past four half-year periods.

In his research note, Kraft detailed the valuation metrics supporting the rating shift: “We never thought of ~40x as a reasonable multiple for Netflix given the company’s decelerating growth outlook. However, at 18x, we believe the current (still very healthy) growth outlook is being undervalued, leaving room for multiple expansion to the low-to-mid 20x range, on top of 23% EPS growth in 2027.”

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International production drives Netflix platform transition

A primary structural pillar behind the upgrade is the geographic scale of original productions. More than 60% of all content produced by Netflix now originates outside the United States, a distribution that analysts view as a durable economic moat against competitors that remain heavily reliant on American studio output.

This localized production pipeline has allowed the entertainment company to evolve into a truly global distribution platform, reducing exposure to cost inflation in Hollywood while tapping audiences with localized programming. Additionally, Deutsche Bank identified efficiency gains derived from artificial intelligence applications across content operations as a supporting factor for operating margins in coming years.

Why are analysts split on Netflix performance?

The upgrade by Deutsche Bank diverges from a broader wave of negative sentiment across major financial institutions. Competitor research desks, including teams at HSBC and Wells Fargo, recently downgraded their ratings on Netflix, pointing to heightened audience competition from digital platforms such as YouTube and signs of brand maturation in established territories.

Those downgrades accompanied a prolonged slump in equity value. Netflix shares accumulated a decline of 26% during 2026 up to the release of the report, while falling more than 40% over the trailing 12 months to log the steepest annual drawdown for the equity since 2022.

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Key financial metrics behind the Deutsche Bank Netflix rating

• US$ 95.00: revised price target established by Deutsche Bank, lowered from the prior US$ 100.00 mark
• 37%: projected share price upside relative to the closing market price on September 28, 2026
• 18 times: current price-to-earnings multiple based on estimated 2027 earnings, down from approximately 40 times during the peak in June 2025
• 60%: share of total content catalog production taking place outside the United States
• 23%: projected growth rate for Netflix earnings per share (EPS) forecast for full-year 2027
• 26%: total net decline recorded by Netflix shares during 2026 leading into the rating change

Next financial checkpoint for Netflix investors

Market attention now turns to the upcoming operational report, which commentators such as Jim Cramer highlighted as a test for the streaming provider. The next formal update on subscribers, revenue, and forward financial guidance will take place on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, when Netflix is scheduled to release its official financial results for the third quarter of 2026.