Fierce Battle in 2025 Ballon d’Or: Yamal, Raphinha, and Dembélé Vie for Main Trophy

Paris awakens under a cloudy sky this Monday, September 22, 2025, to host the 69th edition of the Ballon d’Or, the award that crowns the world’s best soccer player. The Théâtre du Châtelet, an iconic French stage, will host the event starting at 4 p.m. Brasília time, broadcast live on TNT Sports. Journalists from around the globe converge on the venue, where the golden trophy, a symbol of excellence in soccer, will honor the standout of the 2024/25 season.

France Football, the award’s organizer since 1956, evaluates performances from August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, prioritizing collective achievements like the Champions League. About 100 international journalists vote, considering goals, assists, fair play, and impact on clubs and national teams. This year, without major national team tournaments, the focus falls on European competitions.

Brazilian Raphinha from Barcelona emerges as a strong podium contender, but shares the spotlight with teammate Lamine Yamal and Ousmane Dembélé from PSG. ESPN experts, consulted by Lance!, diverge in predictions, highlighting the brilliant season of all three. Paulo Calçade and Leonardo Bertozzi, experienced analysts, rank these players at the top, reflecting the balance in the race.

• Raphinha recorded 39 goals and 25 assists in 55 games, leading La Liga in direct goal involvements.
• Yamal, at 18 years old, contributed 18 goals and 20 assists, including decisive moments in the previous Euro Cup.
• Dembélé tallied 33 goals and 15 assists, pivotal in PSG’s Champions League triumph.

Dembélé’s Decisive Season Boosts Candidacy

Ousmane Dembélé emerges as the leading name in the 2025 Ballon d’Or race, propelled by Paris Saint-Germain’s victorious Champions League campaign. The 28-year-old Frenchman transformed into the engine of the Parisian attack after Kylian Mbappé’s departure, posting his best performance in nine professional years. In 49 matches, he scored 33 goals and provided 15 assists, numbers that place him ahead in preliminary rankings from sites like The Athletic and Goal.com.

Analysts emphasize Dembélé’s maturation, overcoming chronic injuries to become an indispensable piece in Luis Enrique’s scheme. In the Champions League final against Inter Milan, he delivered two crucial assists, securing PSG’s unprecedented title. His versatility, switching between wings and midfield, allowed the French side to dominate the European collective, with 64% average possession in knockouts. ESPN experts like Bertozzi argue that, in years without World Cups or Euros, the Champions trophy outweighs isolated individual stats.

The fate is sealed.#ballondor pic.twitter.com/aMvB0jWvf2

— Ballon d'Or (@ballondor) September 21, 2025

Raphinha and Yamal from Barcelona face the hurdle of not lifting the continental trophy, despite dominance in La Liga and Copa del Rey. Dembélé, conversely, benefited from PSG’s balance, where he shared spotlights with Vitinha and Hakimi but stood out with 12 goals in the Champions group stage. His chance-to-goal conversion rate reached 22%, the highest among nominees, per Opta data.

Dembélé’s impact extends beyond stats: he elevated PSG’s level in direct clashes, scoring against Arsenal in the semifinals and contributing to a solid defense that conceded just seven goals in ten knockout games. For Calçade from ESPN, the Frenchman represents the perfect balance between individual brilliance and collective success, a factor that historically favors winners like Lionel Messi in 2015.

Yamal Revolutionizes Barcelona at 18

Lamine Yamal, the 18-year-old Spanish prodigy, embodies renewal at Barcelona and the Spanish national team, positioning himself as a strong contender for the Ballon d’Or. Revealed in the Catalan club’s youth ranks, he played 55 games in the season, scoring 18 goals and distributing 20 assists—impressive numbers for his age. His dribbling skill, at 4.2 per game with a 68% success rate, makes him unpredictable on the right flank.

Yamal shone in Clásicos against Real Madrid, where he scored a goal and provided two assists in direct matchups, helping Barça clinch La Liga by eight points. In the Copa del Rey, he was decisive in the semifinals, with two goals eliminating Atlético Madrid. Despite the Champions League semifinal exit to Inter, his average of 1.4 goal involvements per game places him among Europe’s top 5, per UEFA report.

Leia também: Dembélé wins 2025 Ballon d’Or, sixth Frenchman to claim football’s top prize

ESPN commentators highlight the cultural phenomenon around Yamal: jerseys with his name sell out at Camp Nou stores, and he became an instant idol after the 2024 Euro Cup victory. Calçade describes him as a “phenomenal player,” capable of dictating rhythms with precise passes up to 40 meters. His tactical maturity, playing as an inverted winger, complements Hansi Flick’s style, elevating Barcelona to 92 points in the Spanish league.

• Five assists for Raphinha in decisive games, strengthening the offensive duo.
• Three goals in the Champions League group stage, including one against Bayern Munich.
• Four assists for Lewandowski, expanding the Pole’s repertoire at 37.
• One goal in El Clásico, altering the course of a 3-2 win for Barça.

Yamal’s trajectory includes the 2024 Kopa Trophy for best under-21, and he already has eight goals in 22 caps for Spain. His finishing ability, with curved shots from mid-range, draws comparisons to Messi, though he prefers focusing on collective evolutions.

Raphinha Solidifies Brazilian Star Status

Raphinha, the Brazilian winger from Barcelona, lived his most prolific season, with 39 goals and 25 assists in 55 appearances, establishing himself as one of Europe’s top names. Transferred from Leeds United in 2022 for 58 million euros, he overcame initial criticism to become La Liga’s top scorer with 24 goals and the Spanish league’s best player. His explosive speed and crossing precision, with 12 assists in the league, were key to the Catalan title.

Bertozzi from ESPN praises Raphinha’s versatility, playing both wings and as a false 9 in emergencies, contributing to 64 total goal involvements. In the Champions League, he led in goals and assists until the semifinals, scoring against PSG in the quarters. Despite the semifinal error against Inter that cost a final spot, his numbers place him in the top 3 betting odds on sites like Polymarket, with 1% win chance, behind only Dembélé and Yamal.

The 28-year-old Brazilian represents rare unanimity among analysts: all ESPN consultants see him on the podium. His leadership in set pieces, with seven free-kick goals, and 62% successful dribble rate highlight his tactical evolution under Flick. Raphinha also shone for Brazil’s national team, with three goals in 2026 World Cup qualifiers, including a hat-trick against Colombia.

• 39 goals across all competitions, personal record and third-best in La Liga.
• 25 assists, tied for Europe’s best in the season.
• Voted La Liga’s best player by coaches and captains.
• Pivotal in 12 Barça wins, including doubles against Real Madrid and Atlético.

His resilience after knee injuries makes him an example of overcoming, and he dedicated part of the season to social projects in Rio de Janeiro, visiting communities during the winter break. Raphinha has 72 goals for Barcelona in three years, nearing legends like Ronaldinho.

Saiba mais: Ousmane Dembélé conquista Bola de Ouro 2025 como melhor jogador do mundo com 35 gols e títulos no PSG

Other Awards Energize the Paris Night

Beyond the men’s Ballon d’Or, the ceremony awards women’s categories, goalkeepers, and coaches, expanding to 10 trophies. In the women’s category, Aitana Bonmatí from Barcelona seeks a third straight win after 2023 and 2024 victories, with 15 goals and 18 assists in the season. The Spaniard leads with 89% betting odds, surpassing Alexia Putellas and Brazilian Marta, who competes for the 18th time.

The Yashin Trophy for best goalkeepers features Brazil’s Alisson from Liverpool, but PSG’s Gianluigi Donnarumma emerges as favorite after 28 clean sheets in 52 games. In the Kopa Trophy for under-21s, Palmeiras’ Estêvão represents Brazil, competing with youngsters like Real Madrid’s Arda Güler. Arthur Elias, coach of Brazil’s women’s national team, vies for best coach after leading to Olympic silver in Paris 2024 and the 2025 Copa América title.

• Botafogo competes as best team after 2024 Brasileirão and Libertadores.
• Carlo Ancelotti, Brazil national team coach, missed the Cruyff Trophy for coaches.
• Corinthians’ Amanda Gutierres nominated in women’s alongside Marta.
• PSG dominates collective nominations, with eight men’s players listed.

The event also honors fair play, awarding humanitarian actions like Dembélé’s donations to causes in Bamako, Mali. Real Madrid’s confirmed absence, after a 2024 boycott, adds tension, but the focus remains on sporting merits.

Podium Race Reflects European Balance

The voting for the 2025 Ballon d’Or podium reveals rare balance, with Dembélé, Yamal, and Raphinha splitting opinions in polls from ESPN and ge. Of 12 ESPN commentators consulted, seven picked Dembélé first, five for Yamal, and none for Raphinha, who still secures unanimous third. This split reflects the dilemma between continental conquest and domestic dominance.

Entenda o caso: Ousmane Dembélé wins 2025 Ballon d’Or as world’s best player after historic PSG season

Yamal gains points for youth and innovation, with dribbles creating 45 clear chances in La Liga. Dembélé adds Champions League weight, where PSG won seven of eight games with him on the pitch. Raphinha, with 64 goal involvements, argues for consistency, decisive in 70% of Barça wins. Other names like Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and PSG’s Vitinha run from behind, with Salah scoring 28 Premier League goals.

• Salah: 28 goals and 14 assists, but Liverpool out of Champions League.
• Vitinha: 12 goals and 18 assists in PSG’s midfield championship.
• Mbappé: 35 goals at Real Madrid, but team absent from gala.
• Pedri: 10 goals and 15 assists, essential in Barça’s balance.
• Haaland: 32 goals for City, but no European trophies.

France Football stresses criteria like “individual performance in collective context,” favoring Dembélé, but Yamal’s media appeal may sway votes. Raphinha, as a Brazilian, carries the dream of breaking the drought since Kaká in 2007, with Ronaldo the last South American in 2002.

History of Brazilians in the Award

Brazilians have seven Ballon d’Or wins, with Ronaldo the Phenomenon leading with three (1997, 2002, 2004), followed by Rivaldo (1999), Ronaldinho (2005), Kaká (2007), and others. In the 2025 edition, Raphinha and Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior are among the 30 nominees, but Vini Jr. drops out of the top 5 after an irregular season with 22 goals. Alisson competes for Yashin a third time, after runner-up in 2022.

Raphinha’s path echoes Ronaldinho’s, who shone at Barça with dribbles and goals, winning in 2005 after La Liga and Champions. Differently, Dembélé follows Zidane’s 1998 path, awarded for World Cup impact but adapted here to Champions. Yamal could join Ronaldo as a young winner, at 19 in 1997.

• Kaká: Only Brazilian since 2007, with Milan in Champions.
• Ronaldinho: 2005, after titles with Barça and magical style.
• Ronaldo: Three awards, including after 2002 World Cup.
• Rivaldo: 1999, with Barça and Copa América.
• Romário: 1994, top scorer in USA World Cup.

The award reinforces South American legacy, with 12% historical votes for Brazilians. In 2025, the mixed podium of French, Spanish, and Brazilian symbolizes the sport’s globalization.

Ceremony Blends Tradition and Innovation

The Théâtre du Châtelet, with 800 capacity, will host the gala for the seventh time, mixing Parisian luxury with holographic projections of iconic goals. France Football innovates with VR broadcast for remote fans, allowing 360-degree viewing. Celebrities like Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham confirmed attendance, boosting glamour.

The night starts with women’s awards, followed by Yashin and Kopa, culminating in Ballon d’Or at 6 p.m. Breaks for French artist performances, like Stromae, interweave deliveries. Real Madrid’s absence, boycotting for the second time after 2024 Vinícius controversy, highlights soccer’s political tensions.

• Broadcast: TNT Sports and YouTube, free globally.
• Duration: Three hours, with post-award interviews.
• Audience: 500 journalists and 300 VIP guests.
• Innovations: Interactive app for real-time voting.

This edition marks 70 years of the award, with Messi as eight-time record holder. The winner receives the 7.05 kg 18-carat gold trophy and a crystal replica.

Mais sobre o assunto: Ousmane Dembélé wins 2025 Ballon d’Or as world’s best player with 35 goals and PSG titles

Global Expectations for the Announcement

Fans pack bars in Barcelona and Paris, with screens broadcasting the gala to thousands. In Brazil, interest in Raphinha spikes Google searches, with “Ballon d’Or 2025” exceeding 1 million weekly queries. Betting houses like Bet365 list Dembélé as favorite at 1.12, Yamal at 3.00, and Raphinha at 8.50.

The race reflects the post-Messi and Ronaldo era, with new heroes emerging. Dembélé seeks his first individual trophy after 2018 runner-up; Yamal, immortality leap; Raphinha, Brazilian recognition. The announcement at 6 p.m. will define not just 2025’s best, but trends for 2026.