Dollar today operates at R$5.3780 with a slight drop; Focus cuts IPCA to 4.55%

Dollar opens with a slight drop of 0.03% this Monday (3), quoted at R$ 5.3780 at around 9:15 am. The movement reflects divided attention between the external scenario marked by the government shutdown in the United States and local indicators updated in the Focus Bulletin. The Ibovespa begins trading at 10 am, after closing on Friday up 0.51% at 149,540 points.

Investors monitor Copom’s decisions on Wednesday (5) regarding the Selic. Abroad, the absence of official data due to the shutdown keeps bets on an interest rate cut by the Fed in December. American private indicators come out today, such as industry PMI at 11:45 am and ISM at 12 pm.

• Weekly accumulated dollar: -0.23%;
• Monthly accumulated: +1.08%;
• Year-to-date: -12.94%.

Focus Bulletin updates economic projections

Analysts reduced the inflation estimate for 2025 for the sixth consecutive week, to 4.55%. The Central Bank survey brings together opinions from more than 100 financial institutions.

Projection for GDP in 2025 remains at 2.16%. Exchange rate at the end of the year remains stable at R$5.41.

Expectations for Selic at the end of 2025 remain at 15%. For 2026, the rate should close at 12.25%.

Government shutdown reaches 34 days in the US

Budget impasse between Democrats and Republicans has suspended federal activities since the beginning of October.Millions of Americans face delays in social benefits and public employee wages.

The absence of an agreement prevents the publication of indicators such as payroll and CPI. Markets operate based on private data and statements from Fed officials.

President Donald Trump rejects negotiations under pressure in a recent interview. Senate meets today with no prospect of immediate progress.

Republicans consider eliminating filibuster to approve budget with simple majority. Proposal generates internal division in the party.

Private indicators gain weight in the market

Industry PMI will be released at 11:45 am by S&P Global. ISM Index comes out at 12pm, measuring American manufacturing activity.

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Speeches from Mary Daly and Lisa Cook, from the Fed, take place in the late afternoon. Speeches can signal the direction of monetary policy.

End of daylight saving time in the US changes Wall Street opening to 11:30 am. B3 closes trading at the same time, while the exchange maintains normal business hours.

Recent performance of global stocks

Wall Street recovered losses on Friday with balances of Amazon and Apple. Amazon’s profit grew 38% in the third quarter to $21.2 billion.

Apple reported an 86.4% increase in net profit, reaching US$27.46 billion. S&P 500 rose 0.29%, Nasdaq advanced 0.61% and Dow Jones gained 0.08%.

European markets closed lower with caution over balance sheets. STOXX 600 fell 0.5%, DAX fell 0.67% and FTSE 100 lost 0.44%.

In Asia, Shanghai fell 0.81% on profit-taking. Nikkei rose 2.12% driven by positive local data.

Long-term projections maintain stability

Expected inflation for 2026 remains at 4.20%. For 2027, projection fell to 3.80%.

GDP growth in 2026 remains estimated at 1.78%. Exchange rate at the end of 2026 remains at R$5.50.

Selic projected for the end of 2027 at 10.50%. Market adjusts expectations based on weekly Caged and unemployment data.