Italy faces Moldova this Thursday (13) in Chisinau, in the ninth round of the European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup. The game takes place at the Zimbru Stadium, at 4:45 pm (Brasília time), with the Azzurri looking for three points to take the lead in Group I. The match is part of the campaign of the Italian team, led by Gennaro Gattuso, which aims to qualify directly for the tournament in the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Moldova, coached by Lilian Popescu, occupies the last position in the group with one point from six games and a negative goal balance of 22 goals. Italy has 15 points from eight matches, with five consecutive victories, including a 3-0 win over Israel in the previous round.
The historic clash favors the Italians, who have won all six previous duels against the Moldovans, with an aggregate score of 18 to 2.
- Italy scored 18 goals in eight qualifying games, an average of 2.25 per match.
- Moldova conceded 26 goals in six games, with no wins in the group.
- Referee Mykola Balakin referee for the first time among the national teams, with an average of 0.12 yellow cards per game.
Probable starting lineups
The Moldovan team adopts a 5-3-2 formation to reinforce the defense at home. Goalkeeper Andriy Kozhukhar returns to the starting lineup after suspension, while midfielder Vadim Rata takes over the playmaking. Injuries do not affect the cast, allowing for minimal rotation.
Coach Popescu prioritizes compactness in the defensive sector, focusing on quick counterattacks led by Ion Nicolaescu, top scorer with 17 goals for the national team.
Italy enters the field with 3-5-2, exploring the wings with Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Sandro Tonali, recovered from injury, debuts as a starter in midfield alongside Manuel Locatelli.
Recent team performance
Moldova drew 1-1 with Estonia in the last round in October, breaking a run of five defeats. The team scored just four goals in six games, with an average possession of 28% and 2.5 shots on goal per game.
The defense conceded goals in every match, including an 11-1 defeat to Norway in September. At Stadionul Zimbru, the success rate is 20%, with two draws and one defeat.
Italy comes from a 3-0 victory over Israel, with goals from Mateo Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori. The team leads in ball possession (62%) and chances created (14 per game), without defeats in the last five matches.
Nicolò Barella is suspended, making room for Davide Frattesi in the creation. The Azzurra have an 80% performance away from home in the qualifiers.
Live streaming and streaming options
The match is broadcast live in Brazil on the Amazon Prime Video platform, with a monthly subscription starting at R$14.90. Coverage begins at 4pm, with pre-game analysis and real-time statistics.
Overseas, the game appears on channels such as Sky Sports in Italy and beIN Sports in parts of Europe. Apps like Sofascore offer score, possession and corner updates.
For betting, sites like Bet365 and Betano list real-time odds, with a focus on Asian handicaps.
Key predictions and statistics
Analysts predict a 3-0 Italian victory, with an 85% probability of the visitors winning according to statistical models. Over 2.5 goals occurs in 70% of Italy’s group games.
Moldova concedes an average of 4.3 goals per match, while the Azzurri finish 12 times per game. Dimarco, with two shots per match, appears as an option to score.
- Odds for Italy to win: 1.05 (high technical certainty).
- Probability of Italian clean sheet: 75%.
- Expected total corners: 9.5, with Italy leading at 6.
Retegui, with five goals in the qualifiers, leads the bets for top scorer. The match could define Italy’s direct classification, which needs three more points to overtake Norway.
The gamestarts at 4:45 pm and lasts 90 minutes plus extra time, with the possibility of extra time in case of penalties, but the knockout format follows a single table.
Head-to-head history
The teams have faced each other six times, all won by Italy since 2004. In the last duel, in June, the score was 2-0 in Reggio Emilia, with goals from Raspadori and Frattesi.
Moldova never scored against the Italians, with average possession of 22% in those games. The Azzurri maintain a 100% unbeaten record, averaging three goals per match.
In Chisinau, the only previous clash ended 2-0 for Italy in 2014, in the Eurocup qualifiers.
Featured players in the duel
Ion Nicolaescu, from Maccabi Tel Aviv, is the main Moldovan point guard, with 79 caps and 17 goals for the national team. He is trying to break the team’s streak of nine games without a win.
For the Italian side, Mateo Retegui shines with five goals and four assists in the qualifiers. The 30-year-old striker forms part of the attack alongside Raspadori, forming a duo with 10 goal contributions.
Gianluigi Donnarumma, in goal, records 32 clean sheets in 70 games for the Azzurri.
