Crypto market starts December down with Bitcoin falling 6% due to fears in Japan

Bitcoin recorded a 7% drop this Monday (December 1, 2025), falling below US$85,000 amid a climate of risk aversion in global markets. The devaluation occurred shortly after the close of November, the worst month for the cryptocurrency in three years, with an accumulated loss of 17.5%. Analistas attribute the movement to the strengthening of the Japanese yen, driven by signals from the Banco of the Japão (BoJ) of a possible increase in interest rates at this month’s monetary policy meeting.

The episode takes place in Tóquio and Nova York, where Asian negotiations started the month with high sales volumes. Investidores face pressure to liquidate leveraged positions, which could extend the impact to technology stocks. The volatility reflects concerns about the unraveling of investment strategies that rely on cheap capital.

Ether, the second largest cryptocurrency, fell almost 10% in the same period, increasing total liquidations by US$800 million in the last 24 hours.

Carry trade strategy puts pressure on global liquidity

Global investors raised funds in yen at rates close to zero to invest in higher-yielding assets, such as cryptocurrencies and American stocks. Essa operation, known as the yen carry trade, sustained capital flows into risky markets for years.

The BoJ signal changes the scenario, with Japanese 10-year bond yields reaching 1.84%, the highest level since 2008. Essa increase makes financing more expensive, forcing accelerated sales to pay off debts.

• Leveraged positions at Bitcoin represent 60% of recent liquidations.
• Flows into crypto fell 15% in November due to similar adjustments.
• Similar strategies affected emerging markets, such as the Brazilian real.

Movements in stock indexes reveal correlation

The Dow Jones Industrial fell 0.71% around 4:45 pm at Brasília time, closing at 47,376 points. The Nasdaq, with a strong weight in technology, registered a drop of 0.40%, at 23,271 points.

The S&P 500 fell 0.42% to 6,820 points, reflecting sales in risk-sensitive sectors. On the Asian continent, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9%, directly influenced by the strong yen.

These indicators show how turmoil in crypto spills over to traditional exchanges. Analistas monitors Federal Reserve, which could cut interest rates in December, but the Japanese risk dominates the agenda.

The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq reached 0.75 in November, the highest level of the year.

November history exposes weaknesses in the crypto market

November 2025 marked the second worst monthly performance for Bitcoin since 2018, with a 17.5% devaluation. The asset has lost 35% since hitting a high of $126,000 in October, testing supports such as the 21-period moving average.

Massive liquidations occurred at the end of the month, with $600 million worth of positions forcibly closed. Trading volume soared, but buyers were hesitant in regions below $90,000.

Macro factors, such as doubts about interest rate cuts in the US, worsened the scenario. The CNN Fear Index remains at “extreme fear,” signaling persistent pessimism.

Reactions in safe haven assets mark the day

Gold rose to six-week highs as investors flocked to traditional hedges. Silver reached an all-time high, doubling in value by 2025 thanks to industrial and speculative demand.

These moves contrast with the decline in crypto and stocks. Oil Brent advanced 1%, while emerging currencies, such as the real, face pressure from the valued yen.

• Gold: up 2% to $2,650 per ounce.
• Silver: record $35, driven by institutional buying.
• Dollar: down 0.5% against the yen, to ¥155.

Outlook for December includes persistent volatility

December has historically returned 8% on average for the Bitcoin since 2011, with more positive months than negative ones. However, the current context of high Japanese yields could interrupt this trend.

The S&P 500 is less than 2% off its October high, but additional declines in crypto could test that support. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, adjusted revenue projections for 2025, assuming prices between $85,000 and $110,000.

Analysts predict that the dismantling of the carry trade will drain liquidity, affecting flows to emerging markets. The BoJ evaluates the pros and cons of a hike, which keeps markets on alert.

Ether and other altcoins follow similar patterns, with corrections of up to 10%. Investidores adjust portfolios for scenarios with higher global capital costs.

Japanese macro factors alter investment flows

BoJ President Kazuo Ueda highlighted the need to combat persistent inflation after years of ultra-low policy. Negative Taxas were in effect from 2016 to 2024, encouraging the carry trade.

Now, with rising yields, global funds reduce risk exposure. Isso impacts not only crypto, but also high beta stocks, such as technology.

In Tóquio, sales in Japanese bonds were the largest in months. The yen gained 1.5% against the dollar, putting pressure on exporters.

Technical Indicators Signal Critical Supports

Bitcoin tested $84,000 on Monday morning before a slight recovery to $86,000. The RSI indicates oversold, while the MACD threatens a sell crossover.

Monthly charts show the asset at the 21-period average, key support since June. Perda of this level opens the way to US$67 thousand, according to bearish flag patterns.

Trading volume in December started 20% above average, reflecting initial panic.

Connections between crypto and exchanges intensify

Crypto-linked stocks, such as Coinbase, fell 8% in pre-market trading in the US. MicroStrategy, with 650 thousand Bitcoins, saw capitalization fall $10 billion below its holdings.

This disconnect highlights vulnerabilities. The Nasdaq, with 40% in tech, strongly correlates with crypto in risk phases.

In November, the index recorded the first negative month since March, with losses of 5% before partial recovery.