Average income tax refunds in the Estados Unidos are expected to increase significantly in 2026. Projeções of economists and experts point to increases of between US$675 and US$1,000 per taxpayer. The growth is mainly due to changes introduced by the new tax legislation approved by the Trump government.
The law known as One Big Beautiful Bill Act brings retroactive exemptions that are valid for the 2025 calendar year. Esses adjustments reduce the tax base and increase the amount returned by the IRS.
Projections indicate a higher total volume of returns
Analysts at Piper Sandler estimate that the federal government will return about an additional $91 billion in the next cycle. The value represents a significant collective increase in relation to the US$ 311.6 billion distributed until October this year.
Intuit, the company responsible for TurboTax, calculates an average increase of up to US$1,000 per declaration. The typical reimbursement, which was around $3,052 in 2024, could reach almost $3,800 in 2026.
Key changes driving refunds
The legislation expands several existing deductions and credits. The standard deduction rises and accounts for US$ 116 of the average increase projected by Principal Asset Management.
- Elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay
- Senior bonus for taxpayers over a certain age
- Increase in tax credit for dependent children
- Temporary deduction of up to $40,000 in state and local taxes (SALT)
These measures apply retroactively to fiscal year 2025.
Impact on families and consumption
Nearly half of taxpayers use their refunds to pay off essential bills, according to recent research. In 2026, the expectation is that the proportion will grow due to the high cost of living.
The Oxford Economics provides for additional returns of up to US$50 billion in aggregate. The extra money helps reduce credit card balances, which reached $1.23 trillion in the third quarter.
Repayments often contribute to the seasonal decline in these debts in the first quarter of each year.
Still Possible Strategies to Maximize Value
Taxpayers have until December 31, 2025 to adopt measures to increase reimbursement. The main recommendation involves increasing contributions to 401(k) plans and traditional IRAs.
Workers who receive tips or overtime must properly record that income. Proprietários of properties can optimize the use of the SALT deduction within the new temporary limit.
Historical record shows retention trend
Most employees do not change their withholding tax even when the tax burden decreases. Esse behavior keeps reimbursements high in the following season.
Experts note that few taxpayers adjust their W-4 form throughout the year. The practice guarantees larger checks from the IRS, although it represents an interest-free loan to the government.
Unequal distribution between income groups
A significant part of the additional benefit is concentrated on higher-income taxpayers. The expanded deduction for state and local taxes favors residents of high-tax states.
Low- and middle-income families receive gains through tip, overtime, and child credit exemptions. The macroeconomic effect remains positive, but with varying intensity between groups.
The increase in reimbursements comes at a time of caution in the American job market. The extra injection of resources can support consumption and help pay debts accumulated throughout 2025.
