The commercial dollar began trading this Thursday, December 11, 2025, with an increase of 0.73%, quoted at R$5.473 at the time of Brasília, at 11am. The intraday maximum reached R$5.4948, while the minimum was R$5.4182, reflecting instabilities linked to commercial tariffs between Estados Unidos and China. Expectativas over Federal Reserve influence the movement, with the DXY index rising 0.13% to 98.98 points.
In the stock market, the Ibovespa registered an increase of 0.67%, at 159,158 points, driven by commodity securities and financial institutions. The traded volume reached R$8.02 billion in the first deals.
Cryptocurrencies show recovery, with Bitcoin at $92,656 and Ethereum at $3,192, after recent declines.
- Main factors behind the dollar’s rise: monetary decisions in the US and global trade tensions.
- Impact on Ibovespa: export sectors lead initial gains.
- Cryptos in focus: Bitcoin consolidates above US$92 thousand, with Ethereum testing resistance.
Dollar fluctuations on the day
The commercial dollar exchange rate varied between R$5.4182 and R$5.4948 during the trading session on December 11, opening at R$5.432. Às 11:38 am, the value stabilized at R$5.461, an increase of 0.46% compared to the previous close. The movement follows the global appreciation of the American currency.
The Banco Central of the
Stock market performance
The Ibovespa opened at 158,187 points and rose to 159,158, a positive change of 0.67%. The maximum of the day reached 159,691, while the minimum was 157,628.
Papers from banks and mining companies drove the index, with a volume of 8.24 billion reais. The WINZ25 future advanced 0.5%, testing 159 thousand points.
In 2025, the index registered an increase of 31.34%, after records in November.
Top Stock Highlights
Shares of Petrobras (PETR4) traded with a slight increase of 0.45%, quoted at R$31.94, after announcing dividends of R$20 billion for December. The paper reflects expectations of stable production in 2025.
Vale (VALE3) rose 1.2%, benefiting from Chinese demand for ore, with an average target price of R$48.50 for the end of the year. Bancos and Bradesco (BBDC4) advanced 0.8%, supported by profitability recovery.
Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) and Banco of
Movements in the cryptocurrency market
Bitcoin operated at US$92,656, up 1.04% on the day, with a market cap of US$1.849 trillion. The asset consolidates after peaking at US$105 thousand in August.
Ethereum advanced 0.78% to $3,346, with a daily range of $3,168 to $3,327. Previsões indicate US$4,300 in December.
Other coins, such as Tether (USDT), maintained stability, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose 1.83%.
The sector records a positive flow of US$56.5 million in ETFs in the US.
Global index analysis
The S&P 500 rose 0.19%, while Dow Jones advanced 0.22%. No Brasil, the IBrX-50 registered 0.45%, in line with Ibovespa.
Projections for 2025 point to Ibovespa at 142,500 points, an increase of 14.35%. Fatores include interest rate cuts in Fed and foreign flows.
Strategies for investors
Fixed income gains traction with Selic projected at 12.63%, favoring CDBs and Tesouro Selic. Alocação moderate suggests 40% in post-fixed.
In variable income, focus on dividend stocks such as Petrobras and Vale, with yields of 15.33% and 12.95%. Diversifique with 20% in global ETFs.
For cryptos, positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum target consolidation above $90K and $3,300. Monitore post-Fed volatility.
- Practical tips: reassess your risk profile monthly.
- Suggested allocation: 50% fixed, 30% variable, 20% alternative.
- Horizon: prioritize long term to mitigate daily fluctuations.
Outlook for the end of the year
The trading session on December 11th reflects cautious optimism, with a strong dollar putting pressure on imports, but benefiting exporters. Ibovespa tests 159 thousand points, close to recent highs.
Cryptocurrencies seek support in halvings and institutional adoption, with Ethereum projected at US$7,000 by the end of 2025. Bancos maintains resilience in a high interest rate scenario.
Macroeconomic factors at play
Official inflation (IPCA) at 4.40% boosts indexed assets. Políticas of US-China tariffs affect commodities, raising Vale and Petrobras.
Foreign flow to emerging markets totals US$56 million in ETFs worth Bitcoin. Selic at 12.63% attracts post-fixed fixed income.
Fed signals a cut of 0.25 points, impacting DXY and real.
Opportunities in funds and alternatives
Real estate funds (FIIs) offer yields of 10-12% in December, with a focus on logistics. ETFs like BOVA11 replicate Ibovespa with low fees.
Sustainable investments (ESG) grow 20% in 2025, aligned with the energy transition in Petrobras.
For conservative profiles, Tesouro IPCA+ yields above inflation by 6%.
