Study predicts mass extinction of mammals with the future formation of the supercontinent Pangaea Ultima

New research led by scientists from Universidade of Bristol, in Reino Unido, projects a bleak future for mammalian life in Terra. According to the study, published in the prestigious journal Nature Geoscience, the formation of a new supercontinent in approximately 250 million years will trigger a mass extinction event, making the planet uninhabitable for mammals, including any descendants of the human species.

Using complex climate models run on supercomputers, the team of researchers simulated the conditions that will emerge when the planet’s landmasses merge again. The result points to an environment of extreme heat, driven by intense volcanic activity and levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere that would be lethal to mammalian physiology as we know it.

The convergence of continents to form “Pangaea Ultima” will not be an isolated event, but the trigger for a cascade of environmental changes. The projection indicates that the global average temperature could reach levels between 40°C and 50°C, eliminating almost all habitable regions and sealing the fate of an entire class of living beings that dominated the planet for millions of years.

The inevitable collision of continents

The geological process that will lead to the formation of Pangaea Ultima is already underway, driven by the incessant movement of tectonic plates. Simulations indicate that the American, African and Eurasian continents will collide, closing the Oceano Atlântico and creating a vast single landmass. Austrália and Antártica will also join this continental cluster, radically altering the planet’s geography.

This concentration of land in a single block will have devastating climate consequences. The absence of large bodies of water inside the supercontinent will eliminate the thermal regulation effect that the oceans provide. The Este phenomenon, known as the “continentality effect”, will drastically intensify temperatures in the heart of Pangaea Ultima, creating vast and inhospitable deserts, far more extreme than any existing today.

Extreme heat as the main threat

The first death blow to mammalian life will come in the form of unprecedented global warming. The collision of tectonic plates will significantly increase volcanic activity, releasing massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. Este increase in greenhouse gases, combined with greater radiation from a Sol that will naturally become brighter over millions of years, will create a runaway greenhouse effect.

Temperatures in much of the supercontinent will become unbearable, regularly fluctuating between 40°C and 50°C, with peaks that can reach 70°C in tropical regions. Under these conditions, high humidity will prevent mammals from being able to regulate their body temperature through sweating, a vital mechanism for survival. The inability to dissipate internal heat will lead to widespread hyperthermia and organ failure.

The scenario projected by computer models is alarming, indicating that most of the Earth’s surface will become a lethal zone. The combination of heat and humidity will create an environment where survival outdoors would be impossible for any mammal for more than a few hours, turning entire ecosystems into barren areas.

Simulations reveal an inhospitable planet

The details provided by supercomputer simulations paint a clear picture of a hostile planet. The research points out that only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface, estimated between 8% and 16%, could maintain climatic conditions minimally suitable for mammalian life. Essas few habitable areas would be restricted to coastal regions and high altitudes, where the influence of the ocean or thinner air could mitigate extreme temperatures.

Consequently, the vast majority of the planet, between 84% and 92% of its area, would become lethal. Detailed projections show that temperatures in these regions would consistently exceed mammalian physiological limits. The central areas of the supercontinent would be most affected, experiencing an arid, scorching climate year-round, with no respite or milder seasons.

The last refuges for life would therefore be isolated pockets of milder climate. Regiões High mountains could create cooler microclimates, while coastal strips could benefit from sea breezes. However, even in these areas, life would be precarious and constantly threatened by global climate change.

Remote islands that did not merge with the main supercontinent could also appear as exceptions. Contudo, survival in these isolated places would depend on extreme biological adaptations, whose evolution over millions of years is uncertain and difficult to predict with current knowledge.

An unparalleled extinction event

The event predicted by scientists surpasses in scale and complexity the five major mass extinctions that Terra has already faced in the past. The formation of the previous supercontinent, the Pangeia, about 300 million years ago, is also associated with severe climate changes that led to the Extinção of the Permiano-Triassic, the most devastating in history, which eliminated more than 90% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial species.

Unlike extinction events caused by single factors, such as an asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs, the Pangaea Ultima scenario combines multiple environmental stress factors acting together. The combination of tectonic activity, extreme volcanism, increased solar radiation and the reconfiguration of global geography will create a “perfect storm” for the biosphere. The prolonged and multifaceted nature of this process will make biological recovery and evolutionary adaptation virtually impossible for complex life forms.

The geodynamics behind the climate apocalypse

The driving force behind this planetary transformation is the geodynamics of the interior of Terra. The heat from the planet’s core generates convection currents in the mantle, which move the tectonic plates on the surface as if they were a conveyor belt. Over the course of 250 million years, this slow but relentless movement will bring landmasses together. Continental collision will not only raise immense new mountain ranges, but will also activate faults and subduction zones, generating volcanism on a continental scale. Essa volcanic activity will inject CO2 into the atmosphere at a rate much higher than natural processes can remove, unbalancing the climate. The Pangaea Ultima configuration will also block and redirect the oceanic and atmospheric currents that currently distribute heat from the equator to the poles, resulting in the trapping of heat within the supercontinent and creating the climate extremes predicted by the models.

Implications of the research for the present

Although the study focuses on an extremely distant future, the results led by professor Alexander Farnsworth have current relevance. Eles reinforce the deep understanding of the delicate interaction between plate tectonics, the atmosphere and the planet’s habitability. The work serves as a powerful reminder of the fragility of climate balance, highlighting how long-term geological processes are the true architects of the conditions that enable or extinguish life on Terra.