After more than 25 years of intense negotiations, the commercial agreement between Mercosul and União Europeia is approaching the final phase of implementation. Este treaty, which promises to reconfigure economic relations between the two blocs, is expected to bring significant changes to both consumers and various productive sectors in Brasil, including industry and agribusiness. The expectation is that the flow of goods will be profoundly altered, with notable impacts on prices and the variety of products available.
Specialists in international relations point out that the most evident transformations will be felt directly by Brazilian consumers. The forecast is for a greater supply of traditional União Europeia products on the national market, many of them at more competitive prices. Essa integration tends to benefit the population by expanding access to diversified goods at potentially reduced costs.
Understand the commercial agreement between the blocks
The main objective of the treaty is to optimize trade exchanges between the 27 member countries of União Europeia and the four countries that make up Mercosul: Brasil, Argentina, Paraguai and Uruguai. Para In addition, the agreement provides for a substantial reduction in customs tariffs that apply both to European products imported by Mercosul and to South American goods exported to Europa.
This partnership covers a vast consumer market, estimated at 720 million people, 450 million in Europa and 270 million in América of Sul. In economic terms, the combined size of the blocks represents approximately 25% of global Produto Interno Bruto (GDP), highlighting the transformative potential of this alliance for the global economic scenario.
Direct impact on consumers’ pockets
Among the European products that should gain greater prominence and, consequently, have their prices reduced in the Brazilian market, are fine wines, cheeses and dairy products. Estes items, which currently face tariff barriers, will have differentiated access to the country, paving the way for a gradual reduction in their costs over the years.
Other supermarket products, such as olive oils, chocolates and various spirits, are also expected to see a drop in prices. Essa projection is reinforced by the observation that Brasil is already a large buyer of products with high added value from the EU, and the progressive elimination of tariffs will bring direct benefits to buyers.
The tariff reduction also extends to more complex consumer goods, such as cars imported from Europa. Atualmente subject to a 35% tax, these tariffs must be zeroed over a period of up to 15 years. Essa measure will contribute to making these vehicles cheaper, although the drop in prices will be gradual due to the complexity of the global component chain, which could take two to three years to adjust.
In addition to food and vehicles, medicines and pharmaceutical products, including those for veterinary use, continue to be the main items imported from União Europeia. Representando more than 8% of the bloc’s total imports, according to recent data, these products are also expected to benefit from the elimination of tariffs, potentially reducing costs for the health system and consumers.
Advantages and challenges for productive sectors
The effects of the agreement are not limited to imported final goods, but also include inputs and technologies used in domestic production. Embora the immediate impact is perceived on consumption, the measure tends to profoundly influence the Brazilian productive structure, offering new opportunities and requiring adaptations.
The prospect of access to more affordable European technologies can drive cost reductions for national companies and encourage investments in modernization. Esse scenario is particularly relevant for agribusiness, which will be able to acquire cutting-edge machinery, equipment and technologies at more competitive prices.
Cheaper technologies and investments
Researchers point out that the elimination of customs tariffs will make the import of essential technologies for the field cheaper. Tratores modern, specialized agricultural implements, fertilizers, chemicals and precision agriculture systems such as drones and sensors, which are often imported from Europa, will have lower costs for Brazilian producers.
This influence is not restricted to agribusiness. The agreement is also designed to expand the import of manufactured goods and advanced technologies for Brazilian industry. Reducing costs in acquiring these inputs can make investments in modernization and innovation more viable, strengthening the competitiveness of national companies. The export of products with greater added value to União Europeia also has the potential to generate more jobs in Brasil, changing the dynamics of the local industry.
Expectations for Brazilian exports
The agreement between União Europeia and Mercosul also opens significant paths for the expansion of Brazilian exports, covering products such as footwear, fruit and a wide range of other agricultural products. In the recent period, sales of the Brasil to the EU have already shown significant growth, reaching the US$49.8 billion mark. Apesar of this increase, the trade balance still tends to favor the European bloc, which exported US$50.3 billion to Brasil in the same period. Agência Brasileira of Promoção of Exportações and
The scenario of gradual tariff reduction
For some products exported through Mercosul, the elimination of tariffs will be immediate. This is the case with grapes, which currently has a tax rate of 14% and will see this rate zeroed as soon as the agreement comes into force. Já for shoes produced in the South American bloc, which currently face tariffs between 3% and 7% in União Europeia, the forecast is that these fees will be completely eliminated within a period of up to four years.
Despite the expectation of an increase in exports of agribusiness products, some experts warn of the possibility of rising prices in the domestic market, due to lower national supply. However, this concern is minimized by the likelihood that macroeconomic effects on inflation will be small and not relevant in the short term, as sectors tend to quickly find substitute markets.
Potential for growth and job creation
Estimates of Instituto of Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea) suggest that Brasil is positioned as the main beneficiary of the agreement. The signing of the treaty could increase the national Produto Interno Bruto (GDP) by 0.46% by 2040, a growth higher than that projected for União Europeia and the other Mercosul countries, signaling a positive and lasting economic impact.
The gains provided by the agreement for agribusiness must be disseminated throughout the production chain, reaching both large producers and small and medium-sized producers, who export through intermediary companies (trading companies). Esse cascade effect ensures that all links in the chain feel the benefits of commercial integration, boosting the development and competitiveness of the sector.
