Elena Rybakina defeats Jessica Pegula and secures place in the Australian Open final against Sabalenka

Kazakh tennis player Elena Rybakina, current number 5 in the world, stamped her passport for the Australian Open 2026 decision on the evening of Thursday, January 29th. In a match marked by intensity and emotional balance, Rybakina overcame the American Jessica Pegula, sixth placed in the WTA rankings, with splits of 6/3 and 7/6 (7). The confrontation, held at Rod Laver Arena, at Melbourne, lasted around an hour and 40 minutes and was defined in technical details during the tiebreak of the second set.

With this positive result, the 2022 Wimbledon champion returns to the final of the first Grand Slam of the season three years after her last appearance at this stage. The decisive duel will be a repeat of the 2023 final against Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka, current leader of the world rankings and two-time champion of the tournament. Sabalenka secured her place early by defeating the Ukrainian Elina Svitolina by 6/2 and 6/3, maintaining her unbeaten record of lost sets in this edition of the Australian competition.

The trajectory of the two finalists in Melbourne draws attention due to the absolute consistency shown on the fast courts. Tanto Rybakina and Sabalenka reach next Saturday’s grand final, scheduled for 7:30 pm local time (5:30 am on Brasília), without having conceded a single set to their opponents. Esse desempenho sólido reforça o status de ambas como as principais forças do circuito feminino atual, prometendo um embate de alto nível técnico baseado no poder de saque e golpes de fundo de quadra.

Never a bad time for some retail therapy 😅

Elena Rybakina reveals how she will prepare for Saturday’s final 🛍️pic.twitter.com/tD7aPSwckV

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen)January 29, 2026

Strategic dominance in the first set

Rybakina started the match with an aggressive stance, exploiting the power of her first serve to dictate the pace of points from the first game. The Kazakh managed the first break of serve in the second game of the match, quickly opening up a comfortable 3/0 lead. Pegula demonstrated resilience by saving two break points in the sixth game, preventing the score from becoming even more elastic, but was unable to threaten the opponent’s serve.

Precision in her right strikes was the difference in Rybakina maintaining strategic control of the opening set in the face of the American’s solid defense. Sem faced great risks in her service games, the number 5 in the ranking closed the partial at 6/3 with relative tranquility in just 35 minutes. The statistical performance showed that serving efficiency was fundamental in nullifying Jessica Pegula’s counterattack attempts at that moment in the game.

Balance and tension in the decisive tiebreak

The second set presented a much more turbulent scenario, with both tennis players alternating moments of dominance and unforced errors under pressure. Rybakina even broke Pegula’s serve on two occasions, serving for the game at 5/4 and again at 6/5, but was broken back on both occasions. The American fought bravely to extend the match, forcing her opponent to make mistakes and taking advantage of the emotional fluctuations that arose in the final stretch of the match.

The decision went to the tiebreak, where the drama reached its peak with real chances for both sides of the court. Pegula had two set points in his favor when he was winning 6/5 and 7/6, but Rybakina saved the opportunities with precise serves and a right cross winner. Após saving the threats, the Kazakh finally converted her fourth match point with a parallel backhand winner to close the tiebreak at 9-7.

• First set won 6/3 in 35 minutes.
• Second set decided in tiebreak with 7/6 (7).
• Total of 35 aces accumulated by Rybakina in the tournament.
• Fourth match point converted by the Kazakh in the semi-final.

Recent and retrospective history against Sabalenka

The Australian Open final will mark the 15th direct confrontation between Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka on the WTA professional circuit. Embora the Belarusian leads the overall record with eight wins against six, Rybakina won the most recent duel that took place in the 2025 WTA Finals decision.

At Australian Open 2023, Sabalenka prevailed in an electrifying final decided in three sets, winning their first Major title at the time. Desde then, the rivalry intensified, with the players dividing themselves over the most important titles in the annual women’s tennis calendar. Rybakina will seek its second title in Grand Slam and its first unprecedented trophy in Austrália, while its rival tries for its third consecutive championship in

Physical preparation for weather conditions

The high temperatures recorded in Melbourne during this fortnight have been a determining factor in the physical exhaustion of the athletes. The tournament organization constantly monitors the heat scale to decide whether to close the Rod Laver Arena retractable roof in long matches. Rybakina mentioned in an interview after the game that energy management will be crucial to face the explosive style of play proposed by Sabalenka on Saturday.

Physical recovery will be the main focus of the two finalists in the next 24 hours before the tournament’s big decision. Australian Open 2026 has been marked by record attendance and intense matches that demand maximum cardiovascular endurance from elite players. Rybakina believes the key to success will be keeping her first serve success percentage above 70% to counter the Belarusian’s aggressive returns.

Impact on the WTA world rankings

Regardless of the result of the final, Rybakina’s solid performance guarantees it will remain in the top 5 in the world with a safe margin of points. The Kazakh has racked up important wins over the likes of Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals and now Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals to reach this stage. Para Sabalenka, victory in the final would further consolidate their reign at the top of the rankings, expanding their advantage over their direct pursuers.

Rybakina’s rise in recent years reflects a tactical maturity that allows her to compete at a high level on any type of surface. The consistency demonstrated on hard courts at Austrália proves that her victory at Wimbledon was not an isolated event in her professional career. The women’s tennis scene enters an era of defined rivalries, where the confrontation against Sabalenka is already considered one of the great classics of today.

Expectations for Saturday’s decision

The Australian public is eagerly awaiting the reunion of the two tennis players who starred in the best women’s final in recent years in Melbourne Park. Organizers have confirmed that all tickets for Rod Laver Arena are sold out for Saturday’s evening session, reflecting global interest in the clash. The match will be broadcast in more than 200 countries, cementing the event as the epicenter of global sport at the start of this year.

Statistics collected during the semi-final show that Rybakina’s backhand is operating with an extremely low error rate, which will be vital against Sabalenka. The Belarusian, in turn, has demonstrated a significant improvement in emotional control, avoiding double faults at critical moments of the match. The balance between Sabalenka’s firepower and Rybakina’s surgical precision should dictate the direction of the Daphne Akhurst trophy.