The commercial dollar closed this Wednesday (4) without significant variation, quoted at R$5,250 for sale. Essa stability marked the second consecutive day in the same range, even after opening with a slight drop in the morning.
The Ibovespa, the main index of Bolsa of Valores of The drop came shortly after the index reached a historic high of 185,674 points the day before, with an increase of 1.58%.
Investors made position adjustments influenced by the release of Ata of Copom and the initial repercussion of the banking sector’s balance sheets. The movement reflected caution in the domestic market, while international indicators also contributed to the observed volatility.
Dollar stability reflects domestic caution
The dollar exchange rate opened the day with a drop of up to 0.55% at around 10 am. However, the US currency recovered ground throughout the session and ended unchanged from its previous close.
Foreign exchange market operators pointed out that the flow of resources and the wait for economic data from the Estados Unidos helped keep the currency close to stability. The absence of direct interventions by Banco Central also contributed to the balance observed in the negotiations.
Ibovespa retreat puts pressure on bank stocks
The main B3 index started the trading session with a moderate drop of 0.37%. Pressure increased during the afternoon, leading Ibovespa to deepen losses to a level of 2.43% near the close.
Shares of large banks led the declines, with negative variations between 2% and 4%. The expectation for the release of quarterly results generated profit-taking movements among institutional investors.
- Santander Brasil (SANB11): decline of approximately 3.5%
- Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4): drop of close to 2.8%
- Bradesco (BBDC4): negative variation of 3.2%
- Banco do Brasil (BBAS3): drop of around 2.1%
These movements concentrated much of the negative impact on the index, given the relevant weight of the financial sector in the composition of the Ibovespa.
Minutes of Copom signal monetary scenario
Comitê of Política Monetária of Banco Central released minutes that reinforced the possibility of starting cuts in the Selic rate from March. The document highlighted the recent dynamics of inflation as a guiding factor for signaling.
Analysts interpreted the text as neutral in relation to the future pace of adjustments. The monetary authority maintained a cautious tone regarding the magnitude of the monetary easing cycle.
Expectations collected by Boletim Focus indicate Selic at around 12.25% at the end of 2026. The projection reflects moderate optimism with the price trajectory in the medium term.
Banking Sector Opening Balance Sheets
Santander Brasil opened the results season for the fourth quarter of 2025 with managerial net profit of R$4.1 billion. The value represented growth of 6% in the annual comparison.
The bank reported a worsening in default indicators in some specific segments. The institution mentioned pressure on low-income portfolios as a relevant factor for the period.
Itaú Unibanco released its numbers after the close of trading. The market was awaiting details on the financial margin and quality of the credit portfolio of the largest private institution in the country.
International scenario increases gold price
Gold registered an increase in the futures market, with contracts for April closing at around US$4,950 per troy ounce. The movement gained strength in the face of statements from the Estados Unidos government about negotiations with the Irã.
Geopolitical tensions in the Oriente Médio supported demand for the precious metal as a protective asset. The spot price advanced 2.3% in part of the session, approaching the US$5,060 mark.
Silver followed the positive performance, with an increase of 1.31% in March contracts. The metal closed trading at US$84.4 per troy ounce.
High oil prices accompany regional tensions
A barrel of oil type Brent for April rose 1.9%, quoted at US$68.60. The commodity reacted to the combination of geopolitical factors and reduction in American stocks.
WTI for March advanced 1.6%, reaching US$64.25 per barrel. Weekly Relatórios showed a drop of 3.455 million barrels in Estados Unidos reserves.
Possible impacts on Iranian and Russian supply kept prices at a high level. The market monitored official statements about diplomatic talks in the region.
Foreign flow sustains interest in Bolsa
The balance of foreign investments at B3 in January reached R$26.31 billion. The volume exceeded the entire net contribution recorded throughout 2025.
The inflow of external resources contributed to the recent appreciation of Brazilian shares. Analistas attributed part of the positive performance of Ibovespa to the movement of international capital.
The prospect of a gradual reduction in domestic interest rates favored the migration of investments to variable income. Empresas of larger capitalization directly benefited from the additional flow.
Performance of other commodities on the day
In addition to gold and oil, other raw materials recorded moderate variations. Iron ore traded at Dalian maintained relative stability in Asian prices.
Soybean and corn contracts at Bolsa of Chicago showed slight increases. The movement reflected technical adjustments following global inventory releases.
Initial repercussion of banking results
The profit reported by Santander Brasil in the fourth quarter surpassed some of the conservative estimates. The annual growth demonstrated the resilience of the operation despite the high interest rate environment.
The release of the Itaú Unibanco after the trading session should bring more elements to evaluate the sector. Investidores focused attention on profitability indicators and provisions for doubtful debts.
Bradesco and Banco do Brasil complete the agenda of large institutions in the coming days. The calendar intensifies the volatility expected for the Ibovespa in the week.
The Brazilian financial market ended this Wednesday’s session with distinct movements between exchange rate and variable income. The stability of the dollar contrasted with the sharp correction observed in the main local stock index, on a day marked by the impact of domestic and international indicators.
