Advanced simulations have detailed for the first time the behavior of celestial bodies coming from outside Sistema Solar in a hypothetical scenario of collision with our planet. The data indicates that these objects would reach the surface with an average speed of 72 km/s, surpassing the speed of most local meteoroids.
To reach this conclusion, the researchers used millions of virtual trajectories, mapping the directions and times of greatest probability of falling. The model took into account the movement of Sol through Via Láctea and the gravitational influence exerted on these distant visitors.
Impact speed and force
The analysis indicates that the 72 kilometers per second mark is a direct result of the gravitational focus of Sol. Essa force attracts and diverts trajectories, increasing the chance of crossing Earth’s orbit, while bodies with speeds greater than 80 km/s would be much rarer occurrences.
The energy released in a possible impact would directly depend on this relative speed, making these events potentially more destructive than collisions with common space rocks in our planetary neighborhood.
Source regions in space
The study identified two main areas in the sky where the greatest flow of dangerous objects would come from. The first is the direction of the solar apex, the point where Sol moves in the galaxy, and the second is the galactic plane, the region that concentrates most of the stars in Via Láctea.
These specific bands feature about twice as many potential visitors as random areas of the sky. Solar gravity acts to reinforce this direction, curving the trajectories that pass close to perihelion.
Seasonal and geographic variation
The risk of collision is not uniform throughout the year, with peaks during the winter of Hemisfério Norte. Nessa season, Terra faces the antapex, which prolongs exposure to objects focused on by Sol, while spring tends to concentrate events with greater relative speed.
Geographically, the dips would be concentrated at low latitudes, with the proximity of Equador favoring direct encounters due to the orbital geometry. Existe a slight predominance of risk for Hemisfério Norte, since the solar apex is positioned above the equatorial plane.
Confirmed visitor data
To calibrate the models, scientists used data from three interstellar objects already detected. 1I/‘Oumuamua, discovered in 2017, was around 80 meters long and had no visible coma, differentiating itself from 2I/Borisov, identified in 2019 with a 400-meter core and rich dust and gas activity.
3I/ATLAS, observed in 2025, recorded a speed of 58 km/s. Todos these bodies follow hyperbolic trajectories, which confirms their origin external to Sistema Solar and validates the bases of the study.
Simulation details
The research generated 26 billion synthetic objects based on the movement of M dwarf stars, the most common type in the solar neighborhood. The model reproduced the observed interstellar flow and applied the appropriate gravitational perturbations.
The final result uniquely mapped the expected distribution of impacts. The combination of gravitational factors and relative motion has defined clear arrival patterns, although the actual probability of such an event continues to be considered extremely low.
