The global study published in the magazine The Lancet Oncology reveals an alarming projection for breast cancer in the coming decades. The number of new annual cases is expected to increase from 2.3 million in 2023 to 3.5 million in 2050, while associated deaths could grow by 44%, reaching 1.4 million per year. Países high-income nations have managed to reduce the standardized death rate by nearly 30% since 1990 thanks to screening programs and advanced treatments, but in low-income nations the rate has roughly doubled over the same period.
Geographic inequality worsens the impact of the disease. Países low- and middle-income people account for around 27% of new global cases, but account for more than 45% of the years of healthy life lost, an indicator that takes into account both early deaths and disabilities caused by the disease. Essa disparity reflects limitations in access to health services, early diagnosis and effective treatments.
Brasil has an intermediate position in the global context. Entre 1990 and 2023, the standardized incidence rate rose 43%, while mortality remained practically stable, with a variation of 2.6%. In 2023, the country recorded 62,300 new cases and 23,900 deaths from breast cancer.
Global projections indicate significant growth
The survey integrates data from 204 countries and is part of the Global Burden of Disease 2023. Estimates indicate that breast cancer will continue to be the most common tumor among women. The projected increase is due to demographic factors, such as population aging and changes in risk patterns.
Deaths could rise significantly if current trends persist. Muitos countries are unlikely to reach the Organização Mundial and Saúde target of reducing breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year by 2040.
Inequality in mortality persists between regions
High-income countries have reduced their age-standardized death rate by nearly 30% over the past three decades. Programas organized screening, early diagnosis and access to modern therapies contributed to this advance, even with a high incidence.
In low-income nations, the mortality rate doubled, growing by 99.3%. Menor availability of screening, treatment and support services explains part of this divergence. Falhas Structural structures in health systems limit early detection and adequate treatment.
Incidence increases among younger women
The incidence rate has risen 29% among women aged 20 to 54 since 1990. In the group over 55 years of age, the indicator has remained relatively stable. Mudanças in reproductive patterns, obesity, metabolic changes and increased detection may be related to the increase.
Researchers highlight that 28% of years of healthy life lost globally are associated with six modifiable risk factors. Esses include high consumption of red meat, smoking, high blood sugar, obesity, alcohol and a sedentary lifestyle.
Interventions on tobacco and alcohol tend to be more direct and feasible through public policies. Prevenção alone, however, does not solve the problem, as millions of women will continue to develop the disease even with effective measures.
Main data of the study
- 2.3 million new cases in 2023.
- Projection of 3.5 million cases in 2050.
- 764 thousand deaths registered in 2023.
- Estimated 1.4 million deaths in 2050.
- 29% increase in incidence in women aged 20 to 54 since 1990.
- 28% of the global burden linked to modifiable factors.
Brazil faces challenges of access and inequalities
The country has not yet converted advances in diagnosis into a consistent reduction in mortality. The focus becomes ensuring rapid treatment and regional equity, as the increase in diagnoses requires prepared health systems.
Place of residence cannot determine chances of survival. Sistemas health services need to offer available, accessible and financially viable services to mitigate the impact of the disease.
Risk factors and prevention
Modifiable factors account for a significant portion of the disease burden. Políticas regulations on products such as alcohol and tobacco show faster results compared to obesity or high blood glucose.
The combination of prevention and improved access to care remains essential. Inovações future screening and treatment may change projections, but depend on accurate records and targeted investments.
The study recognizes limitations in cancer registries in regions such as África Subsaariana and Sul of Ásia. Modelos statisticians compensate for these gaps, but reinforce the need for improvements in data collection.
