The commercial dollar started the day on a high, but lost strength throughout the session this Monday (9), influenced by factors such as the positive trade flow of the Brasil and the country’s attractive carry trade. The North American currency registered an intraday high of R$5.2864 (+0.81%) on the spot market, after the opening of business, but slowed down and touched a low of R$5.2454 (+0.03%). The movement reflects a balance between global pressures of risk aversion and elements favorable to the real.
The oil rally raises concerns about global inflation, which puts pressure on risky assets in general. However, Brasil benefits as a relevant exporter of the commodity, which helps to contain the devaluation of the real. The 2.28% appreciation of iron ore at China also contributes positively to the Brazilian exchange rate scenario.
Commercial flow supports the real
The positive trade flow continues to act as support for the real in the domestic market. Exportadores Brazilians direct resources to the country, which reduces purchasing pressure on the dollar. Esse movement is combined with a slight reduction in foreign exchange positions in the futures market, where participants make partial profits.
Analysts note that the carry trade remains high at Brasil, attracting foreign capital in search of differentiated returns. Esses elements mitigate the impact of negative external factors on the currency price.
Yield curve reacts to the global environment
The futures interest rate curve opened the day with a strong general increase. Depósito Interfinanceiro (DI) contracts advanced up to 26 basis points in medium and long maturities, and around 20 points in short maturities. Esse adjustment accompanies international risk aversion, aggravated by geopolitical tensions involving Irã.
In the first hours of the session, the DI for January 2027 rose to 13.825%, compared to 13.652% of the previous adjustment. The DI for January 2029 increased to 13.460%, from 13.265%, while the DI for January 2031 marked 13.825%, against 13.648% previously. The movement reflects the pass-through of an increase in the income of Treasuries Americans and the initial strengthening of the dollar.
Commodities favor Brazilian exporters
The rise in oil prices on the international market directly benefits Brasil, the largest net exporter of the commodity in América Latina. Esse scenario counterbalances part of the global aversion to risk, which tends to strengthen the dollar in times of uncertainty. Iron ore, another key item on the export agenda, registered a significant gain on the Chinese stock exchange, reinforcing currency inflows.
These positive trade flows help to stabilize the exchange rate even on days of external volatility. The Brasil maintains a favorable balance in recent current transactions, with data from the Banco Central indicating consistent net inflows in recent months.
External scenario puts pressure on emerging currencies
Escalating tensions in the Oriente Médio boost the dollar globally, with investors seeking safe assets. The real, despite its relative resilience, follows emerging pairs in part of the movement. However, local fundamentals such as trade surplus and attractive interest rates limit losses.
The dollar futures for April operated with a slight drop of 0.08% at one point in the morning, quoted at R$5.2840, signaling some correction after the stronger opening.
The spot dollar rose 0.22% to R$5.2544 at around 9:45 am, but the pace of increase moderated as the session progressed.
The combination of positive domestic factors and the benefit of exportable commodities allows the real to perform better than other emerging currencies amid the adverse external environment.
