Gold retreats in investment funds despite historic highs in January

Investidores sold gold en masse in the first quarter of 2026, reversing gains accumulated at the beginning of the year. Ouro’s Conselho Mundial reported that volumes fell 5% in the period, despite the metal reaching an all-time high in January, when the search for protection increased in the face of the weakness of the dollar and uncertainty about the economic policy of US President Donald Trump.

The movement primarily reflected capital outflows in March in U.S.-based gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to the board. Juan Carlos Artigas, an expert at the entity, explains that gold is often the first asset sold when investors need immediate liquidity, despite its reputation as protection in times of instability.

Saídas Funds and Cash Need

Gold funds registered strong movement in March, which partially reversed the inflows from January and February. The pattern reveals behavior typical of investors under pressure: when there is a need for quick capital, liquid and widely accepted assets like gold are the first to leave portfolios.

Volatility in the markets intensified after attacks by Israel and Estados Unidos on Irã. In response, Teerã blocked transit through Estreito of Ormuz, a route that concentrates around 20% of world oil production. The blockage has sent oil and gas prices soaring, forcing many investors to scramble for resources to cover losses or adjust compromised positions.

Expectativas of interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve (US central bank) to combat inflation also weighed on demand. Higher Juros strengthens the dollar, making gold significantly more expensive for investors trading in other currencies and reducing its relative appeal in international portfolios.

High Preço paradoxically reduces demand

Apesar from the drop in volume, the total value of acquisitions increased by 62% in the quarter, reflecting the rise in metal prices. Gold reached almost US$5,600 per ounce in January and maintained an average of US$4,873 throughout the first quarter of 2026.

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The appreciation paradoxically harmed sectors dependent on gold. The jewelry sector has faced a decline in demand as high prices discourage consumer purchases. Oriente Médio, an important logistics hub for transporting gold jewelry, was further affected by the war, disrupting supply chains and reducing trade flows.

The quarter’s fluctuations illustrate complex dynamics between protection and liquidity. Investidores prioritized access to cash at a time of acute geopolitical uncertainty. The metal maintains the status of a defensive asset, but its cash realization reveals that the urgency for financial resources outweighed protection benefits in a scenario of growing global tension.

Analistas point out that cycles like this are common in periods of high volatility, when institutional investors and funds quickly rebalance portfolios. The first quarter of 2026 consolidated this trend: historic highs in January did not prevent massive sales two months later.

The data released on Wednesday (29) by Conselho Mundial of Ouro covers the period until March 31. Movimentos later in April may indicate whether the trend of outflows persists or whether investors resume defensive accumulation in the face of continued tensions in Oriente Médio and uncertainty about Federal Reserve decisions.

Fatores that drove gold sales in the quarter

• Bloqueio of Estreito of Ormuz by Irã raised oil and gas volatility
• Expectativa interest rate increase by Federal Reserve strengthened the dollar
• High Preços made the metal more expensive for foreign currency investors
• Necessidade liquidity to cover losses on other market positions
• Jewelry Setor Faced Reduced Demand Due to High Prices
• Logistics Chains Interrupção in Oriente Médio Affected Gold Trading