El Niño advances faster than predicted and could be historically strong

El Niño should soon emerge on tropical Oceano Pacífico. The probability reaches 82% between May and July 2026. The phenomenon has a 96% chance of lasting until winter in the northern hemisphere, between December 2026 and February 2027.

The update came out this Thursday, May 14, from Centro of Previsão Climática from NOAA, the American body responsible for monitoring. Warming waters below the surface accelerated the process. Modelos now indicate a greater chance of the event reaching strong or very strong strength.

Hot Águas accumulate in equatorial Pacífico

A powerful El Niño may be brewing for 2026: one of the strongest in recorded history.

Scientists are raising the alarm that one of the planet’s most disruptive climate patterns could return with force next year. Multiple climate models now suggest a major El Niño event is likely… pic.twitter.com/4B8bBgrFb2

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) May 14, 2026

Temperaturas in the Niño-3.4 region, used as a reference, are still close to the limit for neutral conditions. The average value is just below 0.5 degrees Celsius above the historical average. The expectation is that the index will surpass this level next month.

A large volume of warm water has formed in the deeper layers of central and eastern Pacífico in recent weeks. Reserve Essa is expected to rise to the surface and fuel the development of El Niño throughout the northern hemisphere summer and fall.

• Subsurface temperature anomalies have increased in recent weeks
• Western Ventos over western Pacífico helped move the waters
• Modelos forecast shows clear transition to El Niño from June

Chance from super El Niño rises to one in three

The probability of a super El Niño — with warming greater than 2 degrees Celsius — between November and January has risen from 25% in the previous forecast to about 33% now. Há still 2 in 3 chance of the spike being strong or very strong.

The last recorded super El Niño occurred in 2015-2016. Eventos are thus rare and amplify the overall effects. Uncertainty about the exact strength still exists, as it depends on how the winds and atmosphere will respond during the summer.

The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months. Ele alters wind and rain patterns in various parts of the world. Regiões may experience drought and heatwaves, while others receive excessive rainfall.

Impactos expected in different regions

Secas and wildfires tend to increase in areas such as Southeast Asia, northern Austrália and parts of América and Sul. Inundações are more likely in East Africa, Peru and south of Estados Unidos. Hurricane season on Atlântico generally loses strength.

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Global warming caused by human activities is already raising average temperatures. Strong Um El Niño adds more heat to the system, which makes it more likely that 2026 or 2027 will be the hottest years on record.

Mesmo event doesn’t reach super status, it should still be strong. The effects are not identical in all years, as shown by the 2015-2016 El Niño, which brought drought in Caribe but not the expected amount of rain in the south of Califórnia.

What the models indicate for the coming months

Vários forecasting centers follow developments. The set of North American and European models reinforces the strengthening trend. Alguns simulations suggest record intensity, but meteorologists highlight that spring is a period of greater uncertainty in forecasts.

El Niño doesn’t just change the weather. Ele affects agriculture, water supply, power generation and natural disaster risks. Autoridades from several countries are already monitoring the signals to adjust contingency plans.

Histórico of extreme events

The most notable super El Niños occurred in 1972-1973, 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The 1997-1998, for example, caused floods and droughts that caused billions in damage and loss of life on different continents.

NOAA uses the RONI index, which considers long-term trends in ocean temperature, to classify the strength of events. Isso allows for more accurate comparison with the past.