Morningstar initiated coverage of SpaceX with a fair value estimate of $780 billion. The number is well below the valuation target that the company seeks for its initial public offering, scheduled for this month. Analyst Nicolas Owens highlighted that the company appears significantly overvalued in the private market.
The valuation considers the core business of launches and Starlink. Owens applied a discounted cash flow model. Ele attributed about $611 billion to the company’s value in these core operations. Outros $170 billion comes from probabilistic scenarios for artificial intelligence initiatives.
Lançamentos dominate the orbital market
SpaceX sent 83% of the total mass launched into orbit from Terra throughout 2025. The company reduced the cost per launch by more than 95% thanks to reusable rockets. Esses numbers support the company’s vision of competitive advantage.
The Falcon 9 rockets remain the main tool for placing satellites and payloads in space. The reusable fleet allows for repeat flights with lower operating costs. Government and commercial Clientes increasingly rely on this capability.
The business model shows resilience. Mesmo with heavy investments in new technologies, leadership in the launch segment remains clear. Concorrentes still faces high barriers to matching the scale and frequency of operations.
Starlink Drives Revenue and Profits
Starlink generated US$11.3 billion in revenue in 2025. Growth reached 50% compared to the previous year. Operating income exceeded US$4.4 billion in the period.
The satellite constellation is consolidated as the company’s main cash driver in the short term. Milhões users in dozens of countries access internet via satellite. Expansion continues in remote areas and emerging markets.
- Starlink serves over 10 million active subscribers in 2026
- Receita grew 50% in 2025 to $11.3 billion
- Positive operating Margem contrasts with losses in other areas
- Expansão focuses on aviation, maritime and government contracts
- Preços averages per user fell before recent adjustment
The company maintains a full-scale constellation that offers global coverage. Corporate and military Clientes increase revenue diversification. Essa stability helps sustain infrastructure investments.
Artificial Inteligência weighs on valuation
Morningstar attributed a narrow economic moat to SpaceX. The advantage comes from the low costs of reusable rockets and the scale of the Starlink. Já AI operations reduce the overall grade.
Analysts modeled three scenarios for the orbital data center plans. The most optimistic case, called a moonshot, is worth $1.3 trillion, but only receives a 7% probability. The total failure scenario has a 43% chance and would destroy more than $81 billion in value.
The scientific and economic uncertainty surrounding these space infrastructure initiatives limits enthusiasm. The recent acquisition of xAI also raises questions about integration and execution.
Preocupações with governance and structure
Elon Musk must maintain approximately 85% of voting rights through a share structure with differentiated classes. The merger with xAI took place without negotiation under open market conditions. Analistas highlight these points as risks.
The public offering must involve around 3% of the company’s shares. The company seeks to raise funds to expand Starlink, develop Starship and other projects. The IPO is among the most anticipated in recent years.
Current debt is 4.3 times adjusted EBITDA. The level is not considered excessive for a private company, but requires attention after listing. Parte of the resources will come from refinancing and inflow of new capital.
Detalhes of the public offering
SpaceX plans to offer shares to the public following private rounds that have boosted its valuation. A US$250 billion transaction to incorporate xAI previously set a valuation close to US$1.5 trillion. The current target for the IPO is around US$1.8 trillion.
Investidores should evaluate the price with caution. Morningstar recommends waiting for more attractive levels after the stock market debut. The focus remains on launch fundamentals and connectivity.
The orbital market continues to expand. Demanda satellite, internet and space services support long-term growth. SpaceX occupies a central position in this ecosystem.
