The Japanese probe Hayabusa2 is targeting asteroid 1998 KY26 for a rendezvous in July 2031. A preliminary study has hypothesized that the object may not be natural. Pesquisadores compare its characteristics to the Soviet probe Phobos 1, lost in 1988.
The article, which has not yet been peer reviewed, does not present a definitive conclusion. The authors ask for additional observations to confirm or rule out the idea. JAXA plans the extended mission after successfully collecting samples from the asteroid Ryugu.
Hayabusa2 completes main phase and targets new target
Hayabusa2 completed its main mission by returning samples from Ryugu to Terra in 2020. The Japanese space agency extended the operation for more than ten years. The 1998 KY26 was chosen from hundreds of candidates for its affordability and unique features.
The ship must perform a rendezvous with the small object. Equipes consider challenges such as releasing target markers and possible landing attempt. The asteroid rotates quickly and has small dimensions.
VLT’s Observações reveals different size and rotation than expected
Astrônomos usaram o Very Large Telescope, do Observatório Europeu do Sul, em 2024 para estudar o 1998 KY26. The results were surprising. O corpo celeste mede cerca de 11 metros de diâmetro, entre três e quatro vezes menor que estimativas anteriores.
Ele also spins approximately twice as fast. The observed brightness exceeded predictions. Essas properties indicate a more reflective surface and possibly more solid structure.
- Approximate Diâmetro: 11 meters
- Rotação: about twice as fast as estimated
- Brilho: bigger than initially predicted
- Comparação with Hayabusa2: object is similar in size to the probe
Hipótese associates 1998 KY26 with probe Phobos 1
The preliminary study compares the asteroid’s current trajectory with possible orbits of Phobos 1. The Soviet probe was launched on July 7, 1988 to study Marte’s moon. Contato was lost on September 2 of the same year after incorrect command.
Pesquisadores indicate that two propulsion maneuvers, with a total speed variation of 1.9 km/s, could align the orbits. Esse performance would be within the technical capabilities of Phobos 1. The paper highlights that the high reflectivity and integrity of the object despite rapid rotation support the theory.
The body appears elongated, according to variations in brightness recorded by telescopes. Autores’s work, including astronomer Avi Loeb, lists independent evidence. Mesmo thus reinforces that natural explanations are still possible.
Object’s Características defies typical asteroid profile
1998 KY26 is part of the class of dark comets due to observed non-gravitational accelerations. However, there is no evidence of a coma or dust tail. The new measurements question previous models of rubble pile structure.
The minimum cohesion required to hold the body together varies between 4 and 20 Pa. Isso is compatible with both solid rock and looser agglomerates. The Hayabusa2 mission in 2031 should provide decisive data on the real nature of the target.
Japanese Missão advances planning with updated data
JAXA adjusts operations based on recent observations. The encounter in 2031 will represent the first probe rendezvous with such a small object. Equipes prepare strategies to deal with accelerated rotation.
Previous success on Ryugu serves as a reference. Cientistas hope the approach will clear up questions about the origin of 1998 KY26. Até there, the hypothesis of technological origin remains under investigation.
