The launch of Apple’s long-awaited foldable iPhone, although scheduled to be announced in September, may have its commercial availability delayed until the fourth quarter. The projection, made by a prominent analyst this Monday, points to significant production challenges that restrict the initial manufacturing of the device.
According to renowned Taiwanese analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, recent supply chain research indicates that the total number of foldable iPhone units to be assembled in the second half of 2026 will be between 7 million and 8 million. However, the third quarter should see much more modest volume, with just 500,000 to 1 million units ready to ship.
In marked contrast, shipment estimates for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models in the same third quarter are 20 to 22 million units. This volume is considered sufficient to guarantee a standard launch without major interruptions, highlighting the specific bottleneck in the production of the foldable device.
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Kuo suggests that the introduction of the foldable iPhone to the market will probably follow a similar route to the iPhone
Analyst predicts rapid sell-out of foldable iPhone
Apple could announce the foldable model along with other new iPhones, but delay the start of pre-sales and commercial availability until the fourth quarter. This strategy would aim to allow stock to accumulate, minimizing consumers’ initial frustration.
The estimated cost for the foldable iPhone, according to Kuo’s assessment, should range between US$2,300 and US$2,500. Despite the high price, demand for the device should remain robust, at least until the end of 2026.
“This implies that the foldable iPhone could sell out instantly after pre-orders open, with delivery times quickly extending to four to six weeks or more, remaining that way until December,” Kuo detailed in his analysis.
Repercussion of Apple’s performance among investors
On the Stocktwits platform, retail investor sentiment towards Apple (AAPL) shares changed to “bearish” early on Monday, coming from a “neutral” position the day before. However, the volume of messages about the ticker registered an increase of 40% in the last week.
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Last Thursday, AAPL shares rose almost 5%, ending a shorter trading week due to the Independence Day holiday. This performance boosted investor optimism, increasing the stock’s year-to-date gains to 13.7%. For context, the benchmark S&P 500 index advanced 9.3% over the same period.
The foldable iPhone, the subject of rumors for a long time, is eagerly awaited by enthusiasts and investors, despite arriving on the market years after the first smartphones with a flexible screen. While foldables have generated a lot of interest, their sales to date have remained restricted, attracting mainly a niche of enthusiasts rather than the mainstream audience.