The expectation of an El Niño of unprecedented intensity in a hundred years dominates discussions about the global climate. An alert issued by the UK Met Office on August 24, 2026, indicates exceptional warming in the Pacific Ocean, with the possibility of profound changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in the coming months and years. This natural phenomenon can have diverse consequences, from droughts in some regions to severe rains and storms in other parts of the world.
Monitoring unprecedented warming in the Pacific Ocean
On the same topic: Forecasts point to El Niño as the strongest in 100 years with global climate impacts
El Niño is characterized by a significant and prolonged warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, especially in the central and eastern region, close to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had already confirmed the presence of the phenomenon after identifying a temperature anomaly above 0.5°C. However, the recent development has raised even greater concerns among experts.
The UK Met Office warns that warming of these waters could exceed 3°C in the coming months. Additionally, data from the Climate Brink panel, which analyzes NOAA records, suggests a possible peak of approximately 3.9°C in November, exceeding the 3°C anomaly recorded during the intense 2015 heat wave.
More on this story: WMO warns: intensification of El Niño will bring extreme changes in temperatures and rainfall
Understand how El Niño changes global atmospheric circulation
This natural phenomenon is one of the main drivers of planetary climate variability. By warming the waters of the Pacific, El Niño directly interferes with atmospheric circulation patterns on a global scale. This change can shift rain and drought zones, affecting entire continents. Understanding its dynamics is crucial to anticipate impacts on sectors such as agriculture, water resources and even public health, given the drastic changes in the environment.
Global consequences: from excessive rainfall to prolonged droughts
The repercussions of a high-intensity El Niño do not manifest themselves homogeneously across the planet. While north-west Europe, including the UK, can prepare for an autumn and winter with increased rain and storms, other areas face an elevated risk of drought. Examples include southern Africa and northeastern Australia, which may experience severe drought conditions.
- Expected impacts:
- * Increased rainfall and storms in northwestern Europe.
* High risk of droughts in southern Africa and northeastern Australia.
* Potential for 2027 to become the hottest year on record globally, due to the combination of El Niño and global warming.
Historical El Niños: Lessons from Past Events
Recent climate history shows the devastating capacity of intense El Niño events. During the last “super” El Niño, which occurred approximately a decade ago, 16 tropical cyclones were recorded, demonstrating the power of the phenomenon in generating extreme events. These past episodes serve as a warning about the magnitude of the effects that the current El Niño can cause, especially against the backdrop of a planet already heated by human activities.
The impact on Europe and the caution of Spanish experts
In Spain, although the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) highlights that the connection between El Niño and the European climate is “weak”, the projected intensity of the current phenomenon inspires greater attention. Experts indicate that, in very strong El Niño cases, the Iberian Peninsula could experience a rainier autumn or an early and humid start to winter. Seasonal forecasts already point to a high probability of above-average temperatures across most of the country, with uncertainty persisting over the exact amount of precipitation.