The deep fuel crisis in Russia can be seen by observing the routine in the country’s capital. On Friday, July 19, 2026, it was common to find long lines of cars and trucks at practically every gas station in Moscow. The traffic jams varied in size and speed, indicating the difficulty in supplying supplies.
On many of these occasions, the absence of queues meant that the station was completely out of fuel and therefore closed to the public.
It is remarkable that Moscow, a prosperous and resource-centralizing capital in Russia, is facing such difficulty. The fact that authorities there are unable to ensure adequate supplies of gasoline and diesel for the population, despite Russia being one of the largest oil producers in the world, highlights the depth of the problem.
In the queues, the general feeling was one of frustration, rather than open revolt. Yekaterina expressed her “dissatisfaction” and noted a “panic because everyone thinks the fuel will run out”, but maintained the belief that the situation would be resolved with a “reorganization of fuel distribution”.
Elmar, another affected driver, described the scenario as “very bad”, complaining of rising prices as stocks dwindle. He reported wasting “hours to get gas” and expressed doubts about a planned trip to Dagestan due to fuel problems.
Asked about those responsible for the situation, Elmar replied with an ironic smile: “In our country, you can’t say who is guilty or who is guilty.”
In fact, in Russia, most people do not feel comfortable publicly criticizing President Vladimir Putin or the Kremlin, which represents the Russian government.
Valery considered it “strange” to experience queues in a country so rich in oil production. He placed the blame on both a lack of Russian preparedness and Ukrainian missile attacks. Valery expressed his aversion to getting “used to queues” and the hope that the situation will change quickly.
For a growing number of Russian citizens, the war in Ukraine is becoming an increasingly present reality of everyday life.
Putin has struggled to protect the majority of the population from the consequences of what he calls a “special military operation”, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year. On the streets of Moscow, direct signs of the conflict are few, limited to a few posters glorifying soldiers as heroes.
However, Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian territory have become an increasingly difficult challenge for authorities to ignore. Oil refineries are among the targets, and explosions have already been recorded in the skies over Moscow and St. Petersburg.
In addition to attacks, the population faces internet blockages, which limit the circulation of information, and, more recently, the growing scarcity of fuel.
Russia, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is struggling to refine enough fuel to satisfy domestic demand.
Andrei, who was waiting in line for the first time with his wife, Yekaterina, attributed the crisis to “geopolitics” and admitted the possibility of the situation getting worse.
He expressed the desire that “all sides begin to get closer and discuss the conditions for a peace agreement”, but lamented the lack of initiative on the part of the “European partners”, which, in his view, could worsen the scenario.
Even in the face of uncertainty, Andrei showed resignation. He recalled that the population “survived the 1990s”, a period considered “much more difficult”, which, for him, serves as a reminder of Russian resilience.
Social media platforms are full of images of drivers lined up at gas stations, with traffic jams stretching for several kilometers. There are also reports and videos of arguments and fights between drivers.
In the tourist city of Anapa, located on the shores of the Black Sea, traditional paramilitary groups, the Cossacks, were mobilized to help maintain order in the long queues.
Rationing is already a reality in many regions, and several of them have banned the storage of fuel in gallons. In a city in Siberia, the mayor even installed chemical toilets for drivers waiting to refuel. In some areas, there has been a reduction in bus services and garbage collection, and farmers fear the crisis could harm their summer harvest.
Concern about the situation is palpable and widespread across the country.
The big question is whether NATO leaders meeting in Turkey can expect this economic turbulence to translate into significant political pressure on Russia to alter its strategy.
That is undoubtedly the hope of Ukraine, whose strategists are betting that Russian exasperation will lead the population to pressure Putin to end the conflict.
Russia, for its part, is monitoring the situation closely. Putin has shown enough concern to publicly address fuel shortages on state television. He acknowledged that the Ukrainian attacks were “obviously creating problems” but assured that the situation was “not critical.”
Despite this statement, the authorities do not want to take risks. The government has already started to increase fuel imports, subsidize prices and authorize the sale of lower quality fuels, which, according to some experts, can cause damage to vehicle engines.
Putin and his advisers are aware that the crisis is impacting public opinion.
The most recent poll by Centro Levada, an independent institute, reveals that Putin’s approval rating has fallen to around 74%. The survey also indicates that the percentage of Russians who believe the country is on the right path has decreased from 61% in May to 52%.
Last week, the Gallup Institute pointed to an economic pessimism among Russians not seen in the last 20 years. According to the survey, 60% of respondents stated that economic conditions in their regions were worsening.
Even Vtsiom, Russia’s national opinion polling institute, which is linked to the government, recorded a 3.4 percentage point drop in trust in Putin in just one week, reaching 73%.
For Christopher Weafer, director of consultancy Macro Advisory, the fuel crisis could become a “watershed” for the growth of the Russian economy.
Weafer notes that “the costs of the war are rising” and while the full impact of the fuel crisis has not yet been fully reflected in July’s statistics, the possibility of its prolongation “significantly reduces growth prospects for the remainder of the year.”
Still, the question remains: will this entire scenario become enough political pressure for Russia to change its course?
Nina Khrushcheva, professor of international relations at The New School in New York, said Putin was unlikely to concede.
Khrushcheva explained that “the more pressure he feels, the more likely he is to act aggressively and repressively.” She added that while the situation is serious, “the expectation in the West that the Russians will simply overthrow the regime is very far from reality.”
According to Khrushcheva, Russians experience a lot of anger and despair, but also “a lot of resignation in the face of what is happening.” For her, the hope of European governments to be able to force Putin to negotiate “is a fantasy, it simply doesn’t happen.”
On the contrary, the evidence suggests that Putin is adopting an even tougher stance.
On Friday, July 3, Putin was seen wearing military uniform during a meeting with commanders, where he claimed that Russian troops were achieving victories on the front line and promised to conquer even more territory.
“The Russian Armed Forces continue to confidently maintain the strategic initiative in the special military operation zone,” Putin declared at the meeting.
Putin then instructed his commanders to look into the involvement of Ukraine’s European allies in what he called “real combat actions” which the president said were prolonging the war. “We need this analysis to make responsible decisions in the future,” he said, without providing additional details.
The statement generated attention among diplomats and military analysts.
The question echoing in Western capitals is: what will Putin’s next move be? Will he choose to escalate the conflict? And if so, in what way?
