The Amazon is preparing to face a new El Niño event while still feeling the devastating impacts of the 2023-24 drought, which has left the rainforest under severe climate stress. The recurrence of extreme phenomena of great intensity prevents the biome from fully recovering, creating growing concern among scientists and authorities.
Amazon faces persistent drought and recovery challenges
The approaching “Super El Niño” raises the level of alert for the already fragile Amazon ecosystem. The regenerative capacity of the world’s largest tropical forest is being compromised by the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. The prolonged drought and recent fires have already caused significant damage that persists, making the biome more vulnerable to new shocks.
Research reveals that much of the forest will not recover in seven years
A recent study, published in the journal PNAS, estimates that approximately 53% of the intact areas of the Amazon that were affected by the drought of 2023 and 2024 will not be able to recover even after a period of seven years. This deadline is the maximum time limit observed for forest recovery in similar episodes in the last three decades, which signals an unprecedented degradation scenario for the biome.
Main impacts of drought on Amazon ecosystems
- Drastic reduction of humidity in the tree canopy.
- Biomass drop above the historical average since 1992.
- Sharp decrease in water levels in the most important rivers in the region.
- The situation was worsened by forest fires, which intensified the dryness and degradation of vegetation.
Even with rain, La Niña does not guarantee complete recovery
Although the occurrence of La Niña in 2025 provided a large volume of rain and recovered the surface level of the rivers, the forest did not return to its previous standards of functionality. Variables such as the evapotranspiration rate and carbon exchange carried out by vegetation remain compromised. The recurrence of extreme events directly affects these essential long-term conditions, making the Amazon increasingly susceptible to future periods of drought and degradation.
Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão, researcher at the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), explained that the tendency is for the forest to progressively lose biomass. This reduces its productivity, ability to recycle water and maintain original microclimatic characteristics, a worrying cycle of deterioration for the entire ecosystem.
Federal investments for fire management in the Amazon
In response to the challenges posed by recent fires and the forecast of a new El Niño, Brazilian authorities are mobilizing. The federal budget allocated to fire management for this year was increased to R$1 billion, representing an increase of almost 30% compared to 2025. This financial contribution allowed the hiring of 4,400 additional firefighters to fight the flames.
Despite efforts, the federal government expresses concern about the magnitude of the problem. João Paulo Sotero, director of deforestation and fire control policies at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA), declared that he does not feel calm and remains on high alert. The complexity of the situation requires continuous vigilance and coordinated actions to mitigate impacts, even with budget reinforcement.
What the Amazon’s vulnerability means for the global climate
The Amazon’s inability to fully recover from prolonged droughts and extreme events has implications that reach beyond the region. As one of the planet’s largest climate regulators and a crucial carbon sink, forest health directly affects global climate patterns. The loss of biomass and the reduction in water recycling capacity can accelerate climate change, impacting the entire world. The current situation highlights the urgency of robust conservation measures and combating deforestation.
