Germany’s AfD regional triumph sends shockwaves across Europe, challenging established political order

A recent local election in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt region has sent significant tremors through the nation’s political establishment and resonated far beyond its borders. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved a landmark victory, securing a substantial mandate that its lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, quickly claimed as a clear directive to govern. This outcome has been widely characterized by observers as a profound socio-political shift, marking a pivotal moment for German politics.

Despite Saxony-Anhalt being one of Germany’s smaller federal states, with a population of only 1.7 million out of 59 million eligible voters nationwide, the implications of its electoral sentiment are being felt nationally. The AfD’s strong performance, even without an outright majority, amplifies existing pressures on the beleaguered centrist coalition government in Berlin.

The party’s success is seen by many as a direct challenge to the ruling parties and could further destabilize the deeply unpopular conservative Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. Merz had previously pledged to curb the AfD’s increasing popularity, making this regional outcome a significant setback for his political agenda.

This internal political turmoil threatens to weaken Germany, the European Union’s most influential member, at a critical juncture for the continent. Europe is currently contending with multifaceted challenges, including ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine, the unpredictable economic policies of figures like Donald Trump, and the growing economic influence of China.

Germany’s shifting political landscape

The Saxony-Anhalt result has prompted widespread introspection across Germany, a nation acutely aware of its Nazi past. This marks the first time a hard-right nationalist party has achieved such a commanding electoral victory since the collapse of the Third Reich in 1945, forcing a national reckoning with the country’s political trajectory.

German authorities have partially labeled the AfD as anti-democratic, with several regional branches, including the one in Saxony-Anhalt, officially designated as far-right extremist. This classification underscores the deep concern within mainstream political circles regarding the party’s ideologies and its rapid ascent.

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While the AfD has historically found strong support in eastern Germany, it is now consistently polling as the largest political party nationwide. This trend suggests a growing disillusionment with Germany’s mainstream political offerings, leading many to question the future direction of Europe’s largest economy and most populous nation, excluding Russia.

International reverberations

The ripples from Saxony-Anhalt’s vote extended globally, drawing swift attention from prominent international figures. Notably, the President of the United States quickly highlighted the Saxony-Anhalt exit poll on his social media platform, signaling the international resonance of the AfD’s victory.

The AfD’s core messaging—centered on anti-immigration, anti-establishment rhetoric, and a “Germany for Germans” stance—bears a striking resemblance to the “Make America Great Again” narrative championed by Donald Trump. Like several other nationalist movements across Europe, the AfD frequently adopts elements from the Trump political playbook, including questioning the integrity of mainstream media, challenging judicial neutrality, and promising national restoration.

Adding to the international reactions, influential Russian businessman Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, also weighed in on the election outcome. He lauded the AfD’s result as “historic,” declared Germany’s national government “discredited,” and characterized Chancellor Friedrich Merz as “humiliated.” Dmitriev’s comments also included a pointed comparison of Merz to former UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who resigned earlier this summer, implying a similar political fate.

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AfD’s stance on foreign policy and eastern Germany

The Russian interest in German regional elections is rooted in geopolitical dynamics. The German government stands as the largest single donor of aid to Ukraine, while the UK has supplied Kyiv with missiles used in strikes within Russian territory, actions that have deeply angered Moscow. In contrast, the AfD maintains a notably pro-Russia stance.

The party advocates for an end to military assistance for Ukraine, a cessation of sanctions against Moscow, and a resumption of Russian energy imports, which are significantly cheaper. Germany’s energy-intensive industries faced substantial economic hardship following the halt of Russian energy imports after the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, making the AfD’s energy policy particularly appealing to some sectors.

This softer approach to Russia also resonates deeply in Germany’s eastern regions, which continue to lag economically behind their western counterparts. Despite massive investments totaling between 2.3 and 3 trillion euros since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 aimed at integrating the former communist states, many in the east, including Saxony-Anhalt, experience “Ostalgie”—a nostalgia for the perceived stability of the communist era.

On the same topic: AfD’s near majority in Saxony-Anhalt state vote triggers widespread concern across Germany

Saxony-Anhalt, being Germany’s poorest region, embodies this sentiment, where economic disparities and a longing for past certainties contribute to the AfD’s appeal. The party’s campaign motto, “anything is possible,” displayed prominently at their election celebrations, encapsulates this hope for a radical change.

A continent on edge: EU concerns

The European Union closely monitored the Saxony-Anhalt election, particularly as the continent enters a crucial electoral cycle over the next 12 months. Key nations like France, Italy, Spain, and Poland are slated to hold elections, and Brussels harbors significant fears that more “extreme” parties, both on the left and especially the right of the political spectrum, could gain momentum across the bloc.

The leader of Spain’s nationalist Vox party, Santiago Abascal, publicly hailed the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt as “a great hope for Germany and for Europe.” This endorsement highlights the solidarity among nationalist movements across the continent, viewing each other’s successes as validation for their own platforms.

Conversely, France’s Europe Minister, Benjamin Haddad, a close ally of centrist President Emmanuel Macron, expressed grave concern, warning that “this is a serious moment in Europe, seeing the far right win in a regional election in Germany.” His statement reflects the apprehension within mainstream European leadership about the erosion of centrist political power.

The nationalist challenge to European unity

Neither the AfD nor other European parties labeled as “extreme right” or “hard right” accept these designations, often preferring terms like “conservative” or “patriotic.” While they vary in tone and specific policy programs—for instance, France’s National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, expelled the AfD from its European Parliament grouping two years ago for being too “radical”—they generally share common ground. This includes strong anti-immigration platforms and potent nationalist messaging.

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This shared emphasis on national interests, whether expressed as “Germany First,” “Italy First,” or “France for the French,” deeply troubles the EU. The concern in Brussels is that the ascending tide of nationalist parties strains European cohesion precisely when external challenges demand unprecedented unity. Nationalist parties like the AfD or Italy’s League Party often espouse deep Euroscepticism, yet Brussels argues that a united Europe is essential to effectively counter global pressures, such as potential trade disputes with the United States or the strategic competition with China.