Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 46% to 45% in valid votes before vote
Fresh opinion tracking data compiled by research institutes Quaest and Datafolha released on Saturday (3) indicates a statistical deadlock between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking reelection for the Workers’ Party (PT), and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, running under the Liberal Party (PL). The numerical parity spans both valid vote calculations ahead of the ballot opening and voter projections for a potential second-round runoff in the nationwide race.
Quaest tabulates first-round valid votes at 46% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva compared to 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro, setting both contenders within the designated margin of error. Datafolha registers the incumbent president at 45% of valid preferences while the conservative lawmaker records 42%. Both statistical estimates confirm that neither candidate holds a decisive mathematical edge on the eve of official polling stations opening across all domestic federative units.
More than 155 million registered voters across the country hold the right to cast ballots on October 4, 2026 to choose the president of the Republic, governors in twenty-six states and the Federal District, two-thirds of the Senate seats, as well as members of the Chamber of Deputies and state legislative assemblies. Polling operations open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. following Brasília standard time in all regions, while a potential nationwide runoff remains scheduled for October 25, 2026.
Simulated head-to-head runoff ballots evaluated by both polling organizations similarly demonstrate a tight balance between the two front-runners, despite differing on which candidate commands the mathematical front. Quaest positions Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% against 42% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the direct pairing. Conversely, Datafolha projects the incumbent at 47% against 46% for the Liberal Party senator, confirming that both remain technically tied under standardized sample variations.
Voter expectations regarding the final election winner reveal that 52% of respondents anticipate a triumph by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whereas 35% predict a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the spontaneous voter questionnaire conducted by Quaest, the proportion of undecided citizens reached 17% on the eve of the election. Political analysts reviewing the figures during broadcast programming noted that with 17% undecided in spontaneous queries, any scenario remains entirely possible.
Breakdown of presidential tracking figures between leading candidates
- Quaest first-round valid votes tally Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45%
- Datafolha first-round valid votes record Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42%
- Quaest second-round runoff simulation registers Flávio Bolsonaro at 44% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 42%
- Datafolha second-round runoff simulation shows Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 46%
- Overall voter expectations indicate 52% anticipating a win for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and 35% for Flávio Bolsonaro
- Undecided voter rate captured in Quaest spontaneous testing settles at 17% across the electorate
Regional projections highlight key gubernatorial and senate battles
Regional tracking surveys accompanied the national releases, documenting shifting local political dynamics in gubernatorial and legislative contests. In Piauí, the Datafolha governor survey placed incumbent Governor Rafael Fonteles from PT at 67% of valid votes compared to 28% for Joel Rodrigues of Progressistas (PP). In Ceará, the Quaest findings pointed to an exceptionally tight race, where Elmano de Freitas registered 50% of valid intentions opposite 49% captured by Ciro Gomes.
Senate voting preferences examined by Quaest in Bahia placed former governor Rui Costa in first position with 33% of valid votes, followed by senator Jaques Wagner at 30%. In Goiás, the survey evaluating seats in the upper legislative chamber placed Gracinha Caiado ahead with 30% of valid responses, while Gustavo Gayer registered 21% and Zacharias Calil obtained 18%.
State executive branch projections reported by Quaest situated Eduardo Riedel of PP at 67% versus 23% for Fábio Trad of PT in Mato Grosso do Sul, alongside Lucas Ribeiro of PP capturing 61% against 23% for Efraim Filho of PL and 16% for Cícero Lucena of MDB in Paraíba. In Maranhão, Eduardo Braide of PSD reached 52% compared to 35% for Orleans Brandão of MDB. Sergipe polling showed Fábio from PSD with 55% ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho of Republicanos at 44%.
In northern and central-western races, Quaest recorded Dr. Daniel of Podemos leading with 57% against 40% for Hana Ghassan of MDB in Pará; Otaviano Pivetta of Republicanos with 54%, Wellington Fagundes of PL with 28%, and Doutora Natasha of PSD with 13% in Mato Grosso; Marcos Rogério of PL with 53% against 24% for Adailton Furia of PSD in Rondônia; Dr. Furlan of PSD at 53% opposite 47% for Clécio Luis of União Brasil in Amapá; and Professora Dorinha of União Brasil with 46%, Vicentinho Júnior of PSDB with 41%, and Laurez Moreira of PSD with 11% in Tocantins.
Superior Electoral Court rulings invalidate contested candidacies
Legal authorities at the Superior Electoral Court confirmed direct disqualification measures concerning several political candidates pursuing federal and regional offices. The collegiate court formally denied the registration of former federal deputy and former prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol in his bid for a Senate seat. Reporting Justice Floriano de Azevedo Marques determined that the candidate acted in legal circumvention by resigning from his previous public prosecutorial office in 2021 specifically to bypass administrative disciplinary actions and ineligibility penalties.
The electoral judiciary also rejected another appellate motion submitted by former Rio de Janeiro governor Anthony Garotinho. The collective verdict upheld standard regulatory instructions ordering that any votes recorded for the politician on electronic voting machines must remain officially invalidated until all ongoing judicial appeals reach an absolute legal conclusion.
