Senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) holds 46% of total voting intentions in the first Quaest poll for the runoff election, while President and reelection candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) stands at 44%. Released on Wednesday (14), the survey carries a maximum margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, placing the two contenders in a statistical tie.
In the prompted scenario for total votes, where interviewees are presented with a list of the candidates running in the race, voters who state they intend to cast blank or null ballots or who plan not to show up at the polling stations account for 9%. Undecided respondents make up 1% of the surveyed sample.
When calculating valid votes, the official metric used by Brazil’s Electoral Justice system that excludes blank ballots, null votes, and undecided voters, Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 51% of voting intentions. Within that same calculation, Lula records 49%.
Spontaneous voting intentions, rejection rates, and federal administration ratings
In the spontaneous portion of the survey, conducted without showing the names of the candidates to the interviewees beforehand, Flávio Bolsonaro is mentioned by 43% of respondents, while Lula is cited by 42%. In this breakdown, those who declare they will vote blank or null or abstain from voting represent 8%, and undecided voters total 7%.
The institute also measured how firmly the electorate has settled on a choice for the presidential contest. For 91% of the people interviewed by Quaest, their selection of a candidate is already final, whereas 9% state they could still change their vote before election day.
Regarding candidate rejection rates measured by the polling firm, Flávio Bolsonaro registers 54% and Lula records 53%. The survey additionally gathered figures on the performance of the current federal administration, showing that 48% of voters disapprove of President Lula’s government, compared to 49% in the previous poll. Approval of the administration rose from 44% to 45%, while 7% said they did not know or did not respond, matching the percentage from the prior study.
First-round voting results and previous runoff simulations
In the previous second-round simulation conducted by Quaest, released on the eve of the first stage of voting under registration number BR-02197/2026 after interviewing 3,702 voters between October 2 and October 3, 2026, Flávio Bolsonaro had 44% of total voting intentions and Lula held 42%. At that point, blank and null intentions totaled 13%, and undecided voters stood at 1%.
In the official first-round vote of the presidential election held on October 4, 2026, the PL senator finished in first place with 47.03% of valid votes, ahead of the president of the Republic, who obtained 45.16% of valid votes, representing a gap of approximately 2.2 million ballots at the urns. Following the opening round, a Datafolha poll released on Thursday (8) showed Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of valid voting intentions against 48% for Lula.
Survey registration at the electoral court and schedule for the presidential race
To compile this study, Quaest conducted face-to-face interviews with 2,154 voters aged 16 and older across different regions of the country. Commissioned by the television network TV Globo and the newspaper O Globo, the survey has a 95% confidence level and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s highest electoral authority, under protocol number BR-08729/2026.
The October 2026 presidential race calendar includes the following polling and voting milestones:
- October 3, 2026: Release of Quaest’s previous runoff simulation under protocol BR-02197/2026.
- October 4, 2026: First-round voting in the presidential election.
- October 10, 2026: Start of in-person interviews for the first Quaest poll of the second round.
- October 13, 2026: Conclusion of Quaest data collection and start of interviews for a new survey by the Datafolha institute.
- October 14, 2026: Publication of the Quaest poll results at 6:05 p.m. Brasília time.
- October 15, 2026: Scheduled release of the Datafolha survey under protocol BR-00466/2026, after interviewing 2,520 voters.
- October 25, 2026: Runoff voting day for the presidential election.
