A statistical tie defines the second round of the Brazilian presidential election between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL) and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). Data released on Saturday (17) by the Ipespe research institute in partnership with the Brazilian Association of Electoral and Political Pollsters (Abrapel) gives the senator 51.2% of valid votes, while the current head of state holds 48.8%.
The gap between the two contenders in valid votes, an official calculation that excludes blank ballots, null votes, and undecided citizens, narrowed to 2.4 percentage points. Because the survey carries a maximum margin of error of 2.6 percentage points in either direction, the candidates are statistically even. In the prompted scenario covering all respondents, where pollsters read the names of the politicians aloud, Flávio Bolsonaro registers 48% of voting intentions against 46% for Lula, while blank and null responses account for 3% and another 3% did not know or declined to answer. Compared with the previous survey by the same institute, the PL senator dipped by 1 percentage point in total votes from his earlier 49%, whereas the president gained 2 percentage points over the 44% recorded in the prior round.
In the spontaneous measurement, where interviewers do not present the list of candidates to participants, the Liberal Party nominee secures 47% of preferences and the president reaches 44%. Within this category, 5% of voters stated they intend to annul their ballots or back neither contender, and 3% offered no response. Other polling organizations published similar figures during the same week: both the Datafolha institute and the PoderData/Aya survey recorded 51% of valid votes for Flávio Bolsonaro and 49% for Lula.
Identical 47% voter rejection rates and federal administration ratings
Pollsters also tracked electorate resistance toward the candidates alongside voter perceptions of mandatory broadcast advertising. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face the exact same rejection rate, with 47% of respondents stating they would not vote for each politician under any circumstance. Regarding the free electoral airtime transmitted on radio and television networks, 41% of those interviewed believe the senator is running the better campaign, 36% point to Lula’s broadcasts as superior, 5% view both efforts as equal, and 18% expressed no opinion.
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When asked to evaluate the federal government, 48% of Brazilians disapprove of President Lula’s administrative performance, 45% approve, and 7% did not answer. In the previous Ipespe/Abrapel polling round, disapproval of the Workers’ Party administration stood at 50%, while approval was already steady at 45%.
Key milestones and polling timeline for the presidential contest
- October 4, 2026: First-round voting concludes with Flávio Bolsonaro receiving 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million ballots) and Lula taking 45.16% (53.8 million ballots), marking the narrowest percentage margin between the top two finishers since the restoration of democracy in Brazil.
- October 10, 2026: Publication of the first second-round Ipespe/Abrapel survey (registered under protocol BR-00933/2026, based on interviews conducted from October 6 to 8), which showed Flávio Bolsonaro at 52.7% of valid votes and Lula at 47.3%.
- October 13 to 15, 2026: Fieldwork window during which pollsters collected nationwide interviews for the latest survey round.
- October 18, 2026: Broadcast of the first head-to-head televised debate of the runoff campaign, hosted by the TV Bandeirantes (Band) network.
- October 25, 2026: Runoff election day for voters across Brazil to choose the next president of the Republic.
Weekend campaign schedules and electoral court registration
Eligible Brazilian voters will return to the ballot boxes on Sunday (25) to decide the presidency, preceded by a direct confrontation of proposals between the two rivals on Sunday (18) during the TV Bandeirantes broadcast. To produce the study released on October 17, 2026, Ipespe/Abrapel interviewed 1,500 voters using internal funding, achieving a 95.45% confidence level under registration number BR-00223/2026 at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the highest authority overseeing elections in Brazil.
Keep reading: Flávio Bolsonaro seeks presidency with ballot number 22 as election tallies begin
On Saturday (17), Lula remains in the federal capital of Brasília to focus on preparations for the televised encounter on Band. Meanwhile, Flávio Bolsonaro holds street rallies dubbed “Bloquinho do 22” in reference to his party’s ballot number, visiting the state capitals of Vitória in Espírito Santo and Salvador in Bahia alongside Federal Deputy Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG).
