Mosaic faces Q4 2025 net loss of $519 million despite robust annual sales growth

Mosaic, a leading global producer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, reported a substantial net loss of $519 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. This quarterly performance marks a significant reversal from the same period in the previous year, when the company recorded a net income of $169 million, reflecting a challenging end to the fiscal year for the agricultural giant.

Despite the quarterly setback, the company’s full-year 2025 results painted a more positive picture, showing a net income of $541 million. This annual profit represents a considerable increase from the $175 million achieved in 2024, demonstrating resilience over the longer term against fluctuating market dynamics.

The adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter reached $505 million, marking a 15% decrease year-over-year. However, the annual adjusted EBITDA for 2025 climbed to $2.42 billion, an increase of 10% compared to 2024, supported by strategic operational adjustments and market positioning throughout the year.

Underlying factors behind the quarterly deficit

The reported quarterly loss was significantly influenced by $422 million in pre-tax charges related to various non-recurring items. These included a $189 million impairment loss tied to the Carlsbad asset, which is currently held for sale, alongside $110 million in goodwill and fixed asset impairments within Mosaic Fertilizantes. Additionally, $223 million in other charges, such as foreign exchange losses, market-to-market adjustments, and asset decommissioning obligations, contributed substantially to the deficit.

Partially offsetting these negative impacts was a gain of $100 million from asset sales within Mosaic Fertilizantes, notably including $94 million from the transaction involving Patos de Minas. The results also absorbed a $261 million after-tax provision against deferred tax assets in Mosaic Fertilizantes, further highlighting the complex financial landscape faced by the company.

Mixed performance in key business segments

Annual sales for Mosaic reached $12.1 billion in 2025, representing a 9% increase over 2024, while fourth-quarter sales grew 7.1% year-over-year to $3 billion. This growth was primarily driven by higher prices and volumes in the Potash segment, expanded margins in Mosaic Fertilizantes, and improved margins in India and China within the Corporate segment.

However, these positive factors were partially counteracted by lower sales volumes in the Phosphate segment, which faced headwinds during the period. The company’s ability to leverage its global footprint helped mitigate some of these challenges, contributing to the overall annual revenue growth.

Bruce Bodine, President and CEO, acknowledged that deferred demand and elevated raw material costs negatively impacted the company’s year-end results. Despite these pressures, Bodine expressed optimism regarding a demand recovery as the agricultural sector approaches the critical planting season, signaling potential improvements in the near future.

Operating cash flow for 2025 totaled $825 million, a 36.5% decrease from $1.3 billion in 2024. This reduction was mainly attributed to an increase in working capital, including a $428 million rise in finished goods inventory and a $346 million increase in phosphate rock and sulfur prices, leading to a negative operational cash flow of $56 million in the fourth quarter due to inventory build-up.

Potash sector shows resilience amid market shifts

The Potash segment demonstrated robust performance in 2025, recording net sales of $2.7 billion, an increase from $2.4 billion in 2024. This growth was driven by a favorable combination of higher prices and increased sales volumes, reflecting strong market demand for the nutrient. Operational profit and adjusted EBITDA for the segment both saw year-over-year growth, reinforcing the segment’s foundational strength within Mosaic’s portfolio. Annual potash production reached 8.8 million tonnes.

Phosphate challenges and future projections

The Phosphate segment’s net sales reached $4.6 billion in 2025, a modest increase from $4.5 billion in the prior year, primarily due to higher prices offsetting slightly lower volumes. The segment experienced a decline in operational profit and EBITDA year-over-year, which the company attributed to increased conversion costs, higher idle capacity expenses, and scheduled shutdowns, compounded by rising raw material costs.

These challenges were partially mitigated by higher stripping margins and a lower average rock cost. In the fourth quarter, phosphate sales volumes were significantly impacted by reduced demand in the United States, leading to elevated inventory levels of finished products. For the first quarter, Mosaic projects phosphate sales volumes between 1.7 million and 1.9 million tonnes, with average DAP prices expected to range from $640 to $670 per tonne. Total phosphate production for 2025 remained largely stable at 6.3 million tonnes compared to 2024.

Fertilizer segment’s strategic adjustments

Mosaic’s Fertilizer segment reported net sales of $4.8 billion in 2025, up from $4.4 billion in the previous year, driven by higher selling prices. The segment’s operational profit improved to $277 million from $238 million in 2024, and adjusted EBITDA reached $567 million, a substantial increase from $344 million in the prior year.

Despite these improvements, the results also reflected lower production margins, associated with a greater proportion of SSP (single superphosphate) sales, increased sulfur costs, and higher expenses related to idle capacity and planned shutdowns at the Uberaba facility. Sales volumes for the year totaled 9 million tonnes, consistent with 2024 levels.

Navigating sulfur costs and market competition

The fourth quarter saw average sulfur costs at $306 per tonne, although reference prices surged past $500 per tonne by the end of the period, impacting inventory valuation. Mosaic anticipates the full effect of these higher input prices to be reflected in the cost of goods sold during the second quarter, estimating that every $10 per tonne increase in sulfur cost could reduce quarterly EBITDA by approximately $10 million. The challenging environment in the fourth quarter, marked by heightened competition and tighter credit conditions, affected both volumes and distribution margins per tonne, particularly in the Brazilian market where Mosaic managed to maintain stable market share in 2025. In response to rising sulfur prices and a shift in demand towards SSP products, Mosaic temporarily reduced SSP production at the Fospar joint venture and the Araxá unit, which collectively represent about 30% of the company’s Brazilian production capacity. The company continues to evaluate its production plans as sulfur market conditions evolve, aiming to optimize operations amidst changing cost structures and demand patterns.