Alfonso Fernández Mañueco faces the PP’s worst historical result in Castilla y León with Vox above 20%

The autonomous elections in Castilla and León take place on March 15, 2026, with voters called to renew the 82 seats in Cortes. A recent poll by 40dB shows that Partido Popular, led by Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, registers 31.1% of voting intentions. Esse percentage represents stagnation in relation to the 31.4% obtained in 2019 and the 31% in 2022. The result places the PP close to its worst historical performance in the community’s autonomous elections. The PSOE appears with 28.4%, registering a moderate drop of 1.6 points compared to the previous election. Vox consolidates the advance and reaches 20.8%, surpassing the 20% barrier for the first time in the region.

The scenario indicates victory for the PP as the most voted force, but without achieving an absolute majority. The sum between PP and Vox reaches almost 52% of the votes, which could result in between 44 and 53 attorneys, above the 42 needed for an absolute majority. Mañueco once again depends on the support of Vox to form a government, as the PSOE rules out any possibility of abstaining from investiture negotiations.

Survey reveals PP stagnation

Partido Popular projects between 28 and 33 prosecutors in the survey’s estimate. Esse interval demonstrates the difficulty in moving forward despite the current management since 2019.

Mañueco governs in a minority after the rupture of the coalition with Vox in 2024. The poll indicates a transfer of votes from the PP to Vox, with around 10% of popular voters in 2022 migrating to the far-right formation.

Significant progress by Vox in the community

Vox rises 3.2 points compared to 2022, when it reached 17.6%. Voter loyalty reaches 85.6%, with additional gains from abstentionists and former PP voters.

Carlos Pollán leads the list of Vox, who benefits from a firm stance on issues such as immigration and rural policies. The party gains more than 25 thousand votes compared to the previous election.

PSOE performance and limited decline

The PSOE, with Carlos Martínez ahead, loses ground, but resists better than other recent communities. The formation obtains between 24 and 28 prosecutors in the projection.

The PSOE’s strategy focuses on maintaining the urban and provincial vote, especially in León, where socialist historical weight helps limit larger losses.

Role of provincial and minority parties

União of Povo Leonês (UPL) projects 4 attorneys, gaining one in relation to 2022. Soria ¡Ya! appears with 2 to 3 seats, while Por Ávila maintains 1.

Other formations such as IU-Movimento Sumar-Verdes Equo and Podemos-Alianza Verde face the risk of losing representation. Ciudadanos and Se Acabó to Fiesta do not get seats.

Context of the call and population perceptions

The survey reflects a period of government wear and tear, with 37.5% of those consulted evaluating the community’s situation as bad or very bad. Outros 46% believe that it has gotten worse in recent years.

Mañueco highlights management in areas such as the countryside and public services during the campaign. The previous rupture with Vox marked the debate on political stability in the region.

Dependence on agreements for governance

The absolute majority requires 42 attorneys in the Cortes of Castilla and León. The PP alone does not reach this number in most projections.

The investiture of Mañueco depends on the agreement with Vox, who has already governed in coalition between 2022 and 2024. The PSOE maintains its position of not facilitating right-wing governments.

Projected distribution of political forces

• PP: 28-33 prosecutors
• PSOE: 24-28 prosecutors
• Vox: 16-20 attorneys
• UPL: 4 attorneys
• Soria ¡Ya!: 2-3 prosecutors
• By Ávila: 1 attorney
• Others: 0-1 prosecutor

The scenario reinforces the fragmentation of the vote and the centrality of Vox in parliamentary arithmetic.

Participation and useful votes will be decisive on March 15th. Elections take place at local community time, with counting after the polls close.