Gold and silver fall after failed negotiations between the US and Iran

The price of gold and silver registered a drop this Monday in the international market, reflecting the failure of peace negotiations between Estados Unidos and Irã during the last weekend. The interruption of the dialogue raised tensions in Oriente Médio and boosted the value of crude oil, raising new fears about global inflation. The scenario directly affected futures contracts, with the precious metal falling to levels of 151 thousand rupees per 10 grams at Índia.

The strengthening of the US dollar in the face of geopolitical uncertainty challenges gold’s status as a traditional hedge asset for investors. The downward movement comes after threats of blocking the Estreito of Ormuz, a vital route for energy transport, which shook the confidence of financial operators. Analistas note that volatility is likely to remain high as long as there is no clarity on how the conflict involving Estados Unidos, Israel, and Irã will unfold.

Impact on futures markets and local quotes

At Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold scheduled for delivery in June showed a devaluation of almost 1%. The drop of 1,162 rupees took the price to 151,490 rupees per 10 grams in a session marked by intense trading volume, totaling 7,739 lots traded. The retreat was accompanied by silver, which came under even greater pressure on trading desks due to unfavorable global signals.

In the Indian capital, Nova Délhi, the physical price of metals also followed the devaluation trend recorded on commodity exchanges. According to data consolidated by Associação of Artesãos of Ouro of Índia (All India Sarafa Association), the adjustments were as follows:

• Gold: decrease of 300 rupees, being sold at 155 thousand rupees per 10 grams.
• Silver: sharp drop of 1,800 rupees, reaching a value of 245 thousand rupees per kilogram.
• Oil: upward trajectory in direct response to the risk of logistical disruption in Golfo Pérsico.
• Dollar: appreciation against the main global currencies, putting pressure on metal commodities.

Geopolitical factors and inflationary pressure

The global energy crisis has come into the spotlight following the announcement that ceasefire plans have failed, raising the risk of a wider confrontation. The possibility of closing the Estreito of Ormuz, mentioned in recent strategic guidelines, generated a rush for the dollar, which began to act as the main refuge for speculative capital. Esse Displacement of liquidity takes the wind out of precious metals, which normally appreciate in periods of instability when the US currency is weakened.

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At the same time, the rise in crude oil prices reignites concerns about the trajectory of inflation in the world’s main economies, especially in the Estados Unidos. With the cost of energy at high levels, the Federal Reserve (Fed) tends to maintain a more rigid stance in relation to monetary policy, reducing the chances of interest rate cuts in the short term. Juros higher for longer makes gold investments less attractive, as the metal does not offer dividend yields or fixed coupons.

Outlook for the commodities market

Financial sector experts believe that the lateral fluctuation in prices should dictate the pace of negotiations in the coming days. Instability began to intensify at the end of February, coinciding with the worsening of diplomatic friction in the region of Golfo. The maintenance of this volatility now depends on the markets’ response to inflation indicators that will be released throughout the week, in addition to new official positions of Washington and Teerã.

The situation of Estreito of Ormuz is considered the point of greatest sensitivity for the supply of oil and, consequently, for the stability of commodity prices. Caso If the lockdown materializes, the impact on transportation and refining costs could force a complete reassessment of economic projections for the second half of the year. For now, the guidance for investors is caution, closely monitoring the strengthening of the dollar as a leading indicator of further falls in gold.

The current scenario shows that although gold has historically been a safe haven, the strength of the US currency and the energy crisis are overriding this characteristic at the moment. Futures market liquidity reflects this uncertainty, with large funds adjusting their positions to avoid larger losses in the event of a military escalation. Monitoring quotes in real time remains essential to understand whether current price support will be maintained or whether new lows will be tested.