Shell profits grow as oil prices soar due to war with Iran
The oil company Shell announced a profit of US$6.92 billion in the first three months of the year, exceeding market expectations and registering an increase of 24% compared to the same period in 2024. The result reflects the direct impact of high oil prices since the beginning of the conflict involving the USA, Israel and Irã, which destabilized global energy markets. Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan attributed the performance to “relentless focus on operational performance in a quarter marked by unprecedented disruption in global energy markets.”
The war significantly raised prices for Brent oil, the global benchmark. Antes of the conflict, the price was approximately US$73 per barrel. The effective closure of Estreito from Ormuz, crucial for 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, caused sharp fluctuations, with the price exceeding US$120 at certain times. Atualmente, Brent is priced at around US$101 per barrel, remaining substantially above pre-conflict levels.
Volatility Cenário benefits trading operations
Shell’s extraordinary gains were amplified by two main factors. Primeiro, the company’s oil trading business took advantage of the wide swings in prices. Grandes variations between buying and selling allow investors to obtain more significant margins. Segundo, margins in the refining segment increased, driven by the transformation of crude oil into finished products such as gasoline and kerosene. Este volatility scenario is typical in periods of geopolitical instability, when traders are able to extract greater gains from price differences.
Rival company BP had already released similar results the previous week, with profits more than doubling in the same period. Norwegian Equinor also reported exceptional performance, achieving quarterly profit of US$9.77 billion, its best result in three years. The pattern of extraordinary gains in the energy sector occurs synchronously, reflecting shared exposure to the high price scenario.
Produção reduced despite record profits
Paradoxalmente, Shell oil and gas production fell 4% in the quarter compared to the last three months of the previous year. The Pearl GTL unit on Catar was damaged by attacks, and liquefied natural gas production in the country has remained at a standstill since March. Essas operational disruptions demonstrate how the conflict simultaneously affects supply and prices, creating an environment of structural uncertainty for the sector.
Apesar from operational difficulties, Shell announced the acquisition of Canadian shale producer ARC Resources for US$16.4 billion, a move that Sawan described as a value creation strategy “for decades”. The purchase represents the company’s commitment to diversifying its production sources, reducing dependence on regions vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts.
Críticas environmentalists and fiscal pressure
The significant increase in the profits of energy giants generated critical reactions from environmental organizations. Danny Gross, a climate activist with Terra’s organization Amigos, declared that “fossil fuel giants are pocketing monstrous profits while drivers are exploited at gas stations and families are about to pay higher energy bills.” The activist defended the strengthening of the tax on extraordinary profits and stated that the economic response should include “breaking our dependence on fossil fuels, supplying our economy with domestically produced renewable energy.”
No Reino Unido, energy companies are subject to Imposto over Lucros of Energia (Energy Profits Levy), a mechanism introduced in 2022 after the Russian hack on Ucrânia. Partido Trabalhista extended the tax period until March 2030. Porém, the rate applies only to profits obtained from oil and gas extraction in Reino Unido, while the majority of the giants’ earnings come from abroad, limiting governments’ ability to tax.
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Impacto in families and price protections
British homes’ electricity and gas bills are temporarily protected by the energy price cap. Até 30 June The typical annual bill for households paying by direct debit is £1,641. Contudo, the rise in wholesale oil and gas prices since the conflict means it is expected to rise by around £200 when the cap is reviewed in July. Esta partial protection reveals the tension between record corporate profits and the impact on household costs for consumers.
Transporte maritime faces cost pressure
Danish shipping giant Maersk is also feeling the direct impact of the conflict. Vincent Clerc, chief executive, told the BBC that the sharp rise in energy prices is adding half a billion dollars in extra costs per month to the company. Clerc emphasized the strategy of passing these increases on to customers, stating that “it is really important to pass these cost increases on to our customers as much as possible so that we can protect our profit margin and the integrity of operations in the future.”
Maersk’s operating profits were slightly above analysts’ forecasts, although the results mainly refer to the period immediately before the start of the war. On Monday, Maersk reported that its ship Alliance Fairfax managed to exit Estreito from Ormuz accompanied by US military assets after being stranded on Golfo since February.
Incerteza about toll collection
Clerc addressed future scenarios regarding Estreito of Ormuz. Teerã’s ambition to control the route and charge tolls would represent a significant change for the sector, “similar to the Suez and Panamá channels, where we also pay to cross”. Porém, he stated that any toll charges on Estreito are “very, very speculative” at this time, and the route needs to be reopened first.
Clerc added that there is uncertainty over whether rising energy costs will ultimately lead to widespread inflation and falling global demand. Este dual scenario reveals the complexity of the conflict: it offers extraordinary profit opportunities for energy companies, but introduces risks of inflation and economic slowdown for the rest of the economy.
Fatores that shaped the quarter
Vários elements converged to create the record profits environment:
- Preço of oil Brent fluctuating between US$100 and US$120 per barrel, versus US$73 before the conflict
- Effective Fechamento of Estreito of Ormuz, restricting 20% of global oil and LNG supply
- Aumento in trading margins due to extreme price fluctuations
- Margens high in crude oil refining into finished products
- Queda of 4% in oil and gas production, limiting supply
- Danos to Catar’s LNG Facilities Due to Attacks
The quarter highlights the dichotomy of commodity markets in scenarios of geopolitical crisis: while energy companies reap extraordinary gains, consumers face inflationary pressure, and the logistics sector faces rising costs. The sustainability of this profit pattern will depend on the resolution or escalation of the conflict in Oriente Médio and the ability of Estreito to reopen Ormuz.
