Goldman Sachs points to Espanha as the main favorite to win the title over Copa from Mundo in 2026. The investment bank released a report this Friday in which it attributes a 26% probability to the Spanish team of lifting the cup at the MetLife Stadium, on July 19, 2026. França comes in second with 19%, followed by Argentina with 14% and Brasil with 8%.
The study combines Elo ratings with indicators of offensive power, recent momentum and variables such as temperature, altitude and distance. Espanha leads the Elo ranking, is in good shape and has strong offensive talent, measured by the performance of its players in the major European leagues.
Espanha brings together ideal ingredients according to analysis
The Spanish team emerges as the one that best balances all the factors analyzed. The report highlights the good recent performance and technical quality of the squad. Lamine Yamal, who will turn 19 shortly before the scheduled final, represents the future of the team.
The bank projects a decision between Espanha and Argentina. The victory would be Spanish, in a symbolic passing of the baton between Lionel Messi, who will be 39 years old during the tournament, and the new generation led by Yamal.
- Espanha leads Elo ranking
- Forte offensive talent in European leagues
- Boa recent team phase
- Caminho favorable until the final
- Argentina suffers from historical “winner’s slump”
Argentina suffers from champion history
The Argentina gets a boost from the traditional powerhouse status in the Elo. Ainda thus, the model points to a tendency of disappointment for world champions in the following edition. Apenas to França escaped this pattern between 2018 and 2022.
The draw also favors Argentines with a theoretically more accessible path. França, despite having greater offensive depth, must face Espanha in the semifinals.
Brasil has an 8% chance and effect Ancelotti as unknown
Goldman Sachs projects Brasil’s semifinal against Argentina. The chance of winning the title is 8%. The report recognizes the model’s limitation in capturing subjective factors, such as the possible positive impact of Carlo Ancelotti’s arrival at the helm of the Brazilian team.
The analysis considers that elements such as chemistry, injuries and knockout performance partially escape statistical metrics.
Inglaterra has hype above the bank’s projection
The bank assigns only a 5% title probability to Inglaterra. The number is well below what bookmakers indicate. Decepções history on Copas, difficult switching, and possible play in Cidade’s altitude and heat from México explain the more cautious view.
Essa position marks the main divergence between Goldman Sachs and the betting market.
Alemanha and other teams face tough paths
Alemanha appears as one of the most affected by the draw. Pode crosses with França in the round of 16. Além In addition, the model records a lower contribution of offensive talent compared to its main rivals.
The report leaves room for surprises. Turquia appears as a possible sensation. México, Estados Unidos and Canadá must advance from the group stage by playing at home. Confrontos with media appeal such as Argentina x Uruguai and possible Argentina x Portugal in the quarterfinals are also mentioned.
Modelo has limitations recognized by the authors
Goldman Sachs admits that factors such as goalkeeping performance, squad depth, injuries, coach experience and penalty shootouts are not fully captured by the equations. “Football remains inherently unpredictable,” states the bank in the document.
The analysis serves as a reference for the market, but does not eliminate the uncertainty typical of sport.