An electrifying week marked the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with memorable performances from big stars and surprising results from lesser-ranked teams. Names like Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé shone, recording historic feats in their first appearances in the tournament.
While Messi equaled the record for men’s World Cup goals and Mbappé became France’s all-time top scorer, teams such as Australia, who overcame Turkey, and Scotland, who claimed their first victory since 1990 against Haiti, also made their mark. Cape Verde, debutant, shocked by drawing without goals with the powerful Spain, current number one in the world.
Given such a busy start, the question that arises is what these first clashes reveal about the true favorites for the title and the possible “underdogs” capable of surprising. An in-depth analysis was carried out, collecting insights from a panel of 20 global sports journalists.
This group of experts ranked their 15 favorites, assigning the No. 1 position to the likely champion and No. 15 to a bold bet. Voting was completed before Thursday’s matches, meaning the next group rounds will influence the update of this ranking.
An ESPN illustration accompanies the evaluation, showing the candidates’ reconfiguration after the first matches.
France takes the lead after resounding debut victory
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 3
- Group I games: beat Senegal 2-0; against Iraq (June 22, Philadelphia); vs. Norway (June 26, Boston)
For the first time since the analysis began in March, a new selection reaches the top of the power list. France, with the impressive performance of “Les Bleus”, accomplished what seemed unlikely before the opening whistle of the World Cup.
Panel voters showed great enthusiasm for Mbappé’s team following their comfortable 3-1 victory in the opening Group I match. Thirteen of the twenty first-place votes went to France, a significant increase from the six votes in the previous poll.
Striker Kylian Mbappé was extremely motivated, scoring two goals in the second half, one of them a beautiful shot from outside the box in stoppage time, and consolidating himself as the top scorer in the history of the French men’s team. The team had eight shots on goal, while Senegal had just one, converted by Ibrahim Mbaye at the end of the game. Michael Olise’s excellent form at Bayern Munich also contributed, with an assist and four chances created. The French defense, in turn, limited Senegal to an xG of just 0.10. More challenging tests, such as the clash against Erling Haaland’s Norway, are still to come and will define the leadership of the group, but France is showing a strong and determined start, looking to overcome the 2022 runner-up.
Below is the updated World Cup power ranking after the first round:
- 1. France (up 1 position) – 14 votes for #1
- 2. England (up 2 positions) – 3 votes for no. 1
- 3. Argentina (no changes) – 2 votes for nº 1
- 4. Spain (dropped 3 positions) – 2 votes for #1
- 5. Germany (up 2 positions)
- 6. Brazil (down 1 position)
- 7. Morocco (up 2 positions)
- 8. Netherlands (no changes)
- 9. USA (new entry)
- 10. Portugal (dropped 4 positions)
- 11. Norway (down 1 position)
- 12. Colombia (up 1 position)
- 13. Japan (down 1 position)
- 14. Belgium (down 3 positions)
- 15. Mexico (new entry)
England climbs two positions with outstanding performance in Dallas
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 4
- Group L games: beat Croatia 4-2; against Ghana (June 23, Boston); against Panama (June 27, New York/New Jersey)
Thomas Tuchel’s “Three Lions” caught the attention of the expert panel with a convincing victory over Croatia in their group stage opener, which earned England three first-place votes, compared to no votes in the 48 hours leading up to the tournament. This performance represents the team’s biggest rise to the top of the rankings.
Despite the doubts surrounding Tuchel’s choices, who left out names like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Phil Foden, opting for others like Marcus Rashford and Jordan Henderson, the team delivered the necessary answers on an afternoon of good football in Dallas. Harry Kane scored twice, Jude Bellingham opened the scoring at the start of the second half, and Rashford finished with the fourth goal after a beautiful move.
Although some defensive failures made the game closer than English fans expected – with Croatia equalizing twice in the first half, including a fine goal from Martin Baturina – England demonstrated a clear intention to play offensively and proactively. It’s too early to predict the team’s future, but the promising start suggests a path to success.
Argentina maintains its position boosted by Lionel Messi
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 1st
- Group J games: victory over Algeria 3-0; against Austria (June 22, Dallas); vs. Jordan (June 27, Dallas)
As with previous editions of the World Cup in the modern era, Argentina’s aspirations remain inextricably linked to the performance, fitness and state of mind of their captain, Lionel Messi. So far, in the 2026 World Cup, this strategy has proven effective, with Messi finding the net three times in the calm victory over Algeria in the team’s debut. This was Messi’s first World Cup hat-trick, making him equal with German Miroslav Klose as the top scorer in the tournament’s history, with 16 goals.
The Argentine formula is simple: grant Messi complete freedom in the opponent’s area so that he can find spaces, receive the ball, position himself in front of the goal and finish. Players like Lautaro Martínez, Enzo Fernández and Alexis Mac Allister work tirelessly to create this space for the talented number 10, with their energy and constant movement with and without the ball. Two of his goals were exactly like this, with Messi receiving the ball at his feet and finishing with surgical precision.
It is uncertain whether stronger opponents will be as “generous” to Messi as Algeria was. Furthermore, a defense that features Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez could be tested by more incisive attacks. However, if Messi continues to score so frequently, the team’s ability to respond to defensive challenges could become less critical.
Spain falls in the rankings after unexpected draw with Cape Verde
- Official FIFA rating (June 11): 2
- Group H games: 0-0 draw against Cape Verde; against Saudi Arabia (June 21, Atlanta); against Uruguay (June 26, Guadalajara)
The panel’s experts demonstrated a visible loss of confidence in “La Roja” after the surprising goalless draw with Cape Verde, a team ranked 67th in the world. Although Lamine Yamal had a lively 19-minute appearance and is recovered, the team needs better results from now on.
Spain’s history of starting slowly in these competitions also weighs heavily in the assessment; in 16 World Cup appearances, they have debuted victoriously on just four occasions. Since winning the title in 2010, the Spanish have accumulated just three effective victories in the tournament, being eliminated in the group stage in 2014 and in the round of 16 in 2018 and four years ago, both times on penalties.
Although history is just a record of the past, expectations regarding the quality of the Spanish team were high before the World Cup, and the team showed apathy in its debut. If Spain really intends to be a title candidate, they still need to demonstrate this on the field in the next matches.
Germany advances after convincing rout in the first round
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 10
- Group E games: beat Curaçao 7-1; against Ivory Coast (June 20, Toronto); against Ecuador (June 25, New York/New Jersey)
Germany’s reliability in major tournaments can be confirmed once again after Sunday’s dominant performance, scoring goals early and in abundance against tiny Curaçao. The result consolidates the team as a force to be reckoned with in this World Cup. Although he has had some shaky tournaments since winning the title in 2014, the performance of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz and Joshua Kimmich on debut suggests great potential.
If these players maintain their level of mastery, voters will likely place them even higher in future editions of the rankings. Tougher tests await against Ivory Coast and Ecuador, two physically strong and aggressive teams. However, coach Julian Nagelsmann and his team do not seem shaken so far.
Brazil loses a position after challenging draw with Morocco
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 6
- Group C games: 1-1 draw against Morocco; against Haiti (June 19, Philadelphia); v Scotland (June 24, Miami)
Our experts re-evaluated the Brazilian team, which is no longer in the group of main candidates for the title after the 1-1 draw with Morocco in New York/New Jersey. However, Brazil is still considered the “best among the rest” in the ranking. The main factor that keeps the team highly rated is the fact that they faced one of their toughest opponents right away, as Morocco (seventh in the world rankings) played bravely, and the draw was a fair result between two strong teams.
Brazil started the match at a disadvantage, which generated some concern. However, Vinicius Jr. scored his first World Cup goal with a precise finish after receiving a smart pass from Bruno Guimarães. Coach Carlo Ancelotti demonstrated his competence with some astute substitutions at half-time, which helped the Seleção secure a second-half draw. The team will have the opportunity to show all its offensive power against Haiti in the next match.
Morocco stands out as an African force after a good match against Brazil
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 7
- Group C games: 1-1 draw against Brazil; against Scotland (June 19, Boston); against Haiti (June 24, Atlanta)
The “Atlas Lions” maintain their position as the highest-rated African team in our latest Power Rankings, thanks to a strong performance against Brazil and having two opponents considered easier ahead of them. There is a lot to admire in this team, which has full-back Achraf Hakimi in full fitness, Ismael Saibari (with 0.7 xG in 89 minutes) as an ideal partner in the center of the attack, and Brahim Díaz, creative and inventive on the right side of midfield.
Despite not having had the smoothest preparation for the World Cup, the Moroccan team seems ready to create difficulties for their opponents in the knockout stages, demonstrating good potential.
Netherlands hold position despite tense draw with Japan
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 8
- Group F games: 2-2 draw against Japan; against Sweden (June 20, Houston); vs. Tunisia (June 25, Kansas City)
The 2-2 draw against Japan was considered an achievement significant enough to keep the Dutch team firmly at the top of the power rankings. However, “A Clockwork Orange” fans may be concerned about the generally solid defense led by Virgil van Dijk, which failed to hold on to the lead in the final minutes, allowing the Japanese to equalize in the 88th minute. Our voters noticed this weakness and were not completely convinced, with only two of the 21 votes placing the Dutch in the top six. However, the team benefits from more experienced key players and a stability that not all teams at this intermediate level can boast.
Sweden’s impressive victory over Tunisia means that Ronald Koeman’s team no longer controls their destiny in qualifying for the round of 32 stage. Even so, if the Netherlands can replicate the performance of Ryan Gravenberch and Frenkie de Jong in midfield, as seen on Sunday, they could still advance in the competition if the odds and seeding are in their favor.
United States enters the list of top 15 with emphatic victory
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 17
- Group H games: beat Paraguay 4-1; against Australia (June 19, Seattle); against Turkey (June 25, Los Angeles)
Welcome to the big stage, USA Men’s National Team! Previously relegated to the background in the three previous editions of the Power Ranking, receiving only charitable votes, the strength and potential of Mauricio Pochettino’s team could not be ignored by experts after their emphatic four-goal performance against Paraguay last Friday.
Folarin Balogun transferred his excellent club form (19 goals and four assists for Monaco) to the US senior team, scoring two fine goals in the first half. The midfield of Malik Tillman, Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams pressed Paraguay effectively, and the full-back duo of Antonee Robinson and Alex Freeman offered tireless energy and dedication on both sides of the pitch.
The only concern lies in the physical condition of “Captain America”, Christian Pulisic, who left behind a low-key 2026 with his club to provide an assist in the first half, raising USA’s hopes, but was substituted at half-time due to a calf injury. He has trained sporadically this week, separately from the squad, and is still considered doubtful for Friday’s clash against Australia. Pochettino will need him if the Americans are to build on this strong start to the season.
Portugal drops four positions after Cristiano Ronaldo’s discreet debut
- Official FIFA Rating (June 11): 5
- Group K games: 1-1 draw against the Democratic Republic of Congo; against Uzbekistan (June 23, Houston); against Colombia (June 27, Miami)
The start of Portugal’s World Cup campaign was not the most promising for a team that is, arguably, the “best of the rest” at the top of our rankings. The debate surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo — whether he should play or not — intensified after the 1-1 draw in Houston, a result fully deserved by the opponents. With just 25 touches of the ball and three shots in 90 minutes, Ronaldo’s performance can hardly get any worse.
Voters were never completely convinced of this selection, despite the abundance of talent that coach Roberto Martínez has at his disposal – Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, João Neves, Nuno Mendes, Rafael Leão, Pedro Neto. However, as long as the main focus remains on CR7, Portugal’s ability to go far in the tournament will continue to be questioned. The defense also needs greater solidity, which should happen if Rúben Dias recovers from a minor injury and returns to form the defense alongside Renato Veiga.
Norway drops one position even with Haaland in the spotlight
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 31
- Group H games: beat Iraq 4-1; against Senegal (June 22, New York/New Jersey); against France (June 26, Boston)
Before the World Cup, Erling Haaland expressed to ESPN that it was a dream come true to lead Norway back to the tournament after almost 30 years of absence. In his opening match, he made clear his desire for a long stay in the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer. Two magnificent goals in a great victory over Iraq, with 1.98 xG + xA over the 90 minutes, were a sign of ambition that should give the other teams in Group H pause.
However, the final score could be misleading: Norway struggled until two goals in the last 15 minutes, including an injury-time own goal, created the impression of a comfortable lead. A much more accurate test of their strength, and their shaky defense, will come against Senegal next week.
Colombia returns to the World Cup with victory over Uzbekistan
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 13
- Group K games: beat Uzbekistan 3-1; against the Democratic Republic of Congo (June 23, Guadalajara); against Portugal (June 27, Miami)
After being left out of the 2022 edition, the “Cafeteros” marked their return to the World Cup with a victory over debutants Uzbekistan, in Mexico City. Luis Díaz was the highlight of the match, with a goal and an assist in the 3-1 victory. However, their opponents, who are ranked 50th in the FIFA rankings, were not an easy opponent, drawing 1-1 around the 60th minute in a much better second half, before Díaz and Jáminton Campaz scored to secure the three points.
Díaz is, without a doubt, this team’s driving force in attack, demonstrating the same dedication that made him irreplaceable at Bayern Munich last season. However, he will need support if Colombia are to progress in the knockout stages. James Rodríguez, hero of the 2014 and 2018 World Cups, failed to influence the game much on the right wing, showing signs of his 34 years before being substituted with 15 minutes to go. Gustavo Puerta, a potential breakthrough player in midfield, controlled the pace so well at times that he seemed to be in his fifth World Cup rather than his first.
Japan shows resilience by drawing with the Netherlands without their stars
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 18
- Group F games: 2-2 draw against the Netherlands; against Tunisia (June 20, Monterrey); vs. Sweden (June 25, Dallas)
No superstars and no problems for the “Blue Samurai” – at least for now. Japan’s campaign seemed doomed before it even began when three of its best-known players – strikers Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma, and midfielder Wataru Endo – were missing after failing to recover from old injuries.
Despite the challenges, the Japanese team fought valiantly, recovering from 1-0 and 2-1 deficits to earn a quality draw against the Netherlands in their Group F opener. Daichi Kamada was dynamic in midfield and provided the assist for Japan’s second goal, Takefusa Kubo was a constant threat to the Dutch defense, and Keito Nakamura proved tireless in both attack and defense, playing as a left winger. The Japanese team strengthened throughout the match, and the reward is a game considered winnable against Tunisia, who conceded five goals against Sweden and fired their coach the following day.
Belgium loses positions with performance below expectations
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 9
- Group G games: 1-1 draw against Egypt; against Iran (June 21, Los Angeles); vs. New Zealand (June 26, Vancouver)
One of the themes emerging at this World Cup involves large attackers creating opportunities due to their physical strength and imposing stance against intimidated defenders. Belgian Romelu Lukaku did his part to help set up the equalizer in the opening match against Egypt, which ended 1-1. Less than 30 seconds after coming onto the pitch in the second half, the veteran striker put pressure on Mohamed Hany, who ended up scoring an own goal under pressure after a precise cross from Thomas Meunier – the very definition of an ‘impact tackle’.
Kevin De Bruyne demonstrated his best form in attacking midfield, and Youri Tielemans dictated the pace of the game in the center of the field. However, it is still difficult to imagine how Belgium will be able to score enough goals, even with Lukaku’s contribution in the first goal. Egypt did not have any major difficulties in the first half and even opened the scoring, which raises questions about Belgium’s offensive potential.
Mexico makes a triumphant entry into the ranking as featured host
- Official FIFA ranking (June 11): 14
- Group H games: beat South Africa 2-0; beat South Korea 1-0; played against the Czech Republic (June 24, Mexico City)
Last but not least, another of the host teams makes its first entry into the top 15 rankings after four editions! “El Tri” started on the right foot in the opening match of the World Cup, beating 60th-ranked South Africa 2-0. The victory, however, was achieved at a slower pace, especially as the South African team received two red cards.
Julián Quiñones took advantage of South Africa’s failure to open the scoring after just nine minutes, and Raúl Jiménez increased the score with a header in the second half, in an impeccable performance typical of a center forward. Mexico’s intense style of play aims to pressure opponents and force them into mistakes, but our voters are still not entirely convinced, with just three of the 21 votes placing “El Tri” in the top 10.
Senegal (which was No. 14) and Croatia (which was No. 15) dropped from the list. The voting panel included Bill Connelly, James Olley, Julien Laurens, Sam Marsden, Rob Dawson, Armando Neria, Ryan O’Hanlon, Mark Ogden, Lizzy Becherano, Beth Lindop, Ed Dove, Tom Hamilton, Damian Didonato, Alex Kirkland, Gabe Tan, James Tyler, Joey Lynch, Jeff Carlisle, Gab Marcotti and Cesar Hernandez.