The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has yet to record any hurricanes, and this early absence could set a new record for waits in the modern era. By the end of August, the Atlantic Ocean had recorded four tropical storms, like Dolly, but no hurricanes had formed. Despite this, the designation is “hurricane season”, and the initial three-month period, which is normally active, remained without the development of any of these phenomena.
This situation is mainly attributed to El Niño, which intensifies and creates an unfavorable environment for the formation of hurricanes, with factors such as high wind shear and descending dry air in strategic areas of the tropical Atlantic basin.
When hurricanes typically form in the Atlantic region
Meteorologists analyzed data from the last 60 hurricane seasons, spanning the period from 1966 to 2025, since satellite coverage of the basin began. Over these six decades, the average date for the first hurricane of the season to emerge was July 27. Historically, the first hurricane tends to appear more frequently in the months of July or August.
The rarity of such a long wait for the first hurricane
In 60 years of record keeping, only seven seasons have had to wait until September to see the first Atlantic hurricane. The most recent scenario was in 2022, a year in which not even a tropical storm formed in August. The longest wait for the first hurricane in the satellite era occurred on September 11, in both 2013 and 2002.
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What Late Start Seasons Produced
In 2022, after an August with no activity, September saw the formation of four hurricanes, with Fiona and Ian causing so much damage that their names were removed from the list. However, this season occurred during a moderate La Niña phenomenon, which generally favors the formation of hurricanes, unlike El Niño.
The year 2013, although not an El Niño, featured a significant amount of dry descending air, resulting in only two hurricanes in the entire season. This number equaled the record for the lowest amount, also recorded in 1982, a period of a rising El Niño.
In 2002, characterized by a moderate El Niño, Hurricane Gustav broke its initial absence, being followed by Isidore, Kyle and Lili between mid-September and the beginning of October.
The other four seasons in which the first hurricane did not appear until September were not influenced by El Niño, but still produced a total of nine (2001), six (1967) and five (1984, 1988) hurricanes each.
Prospects for the development of the current season
Given the intensification of El Niño and the adverse conditions it imposes on the Atlantic basin, it is possible that 2026 will approach or even surpass the record wait for the first hurricane. However, this initial delay does not imply that the remainder of the season will be inactive.
Forecasts from CSU and Atmospheric G2/The Weather Company indicate the formation of four to five hurricanes in the Atlantic this season. It’s important to remember that the lowest number of hurricanes recorded in the satellite era was two, not zero.
Even with the influence of a strong El Niño, the occurrence of just one hurricane, or even a tropical storm with intense rain close to the coast, can cause considerable impacts. Therefore, the recommendation is to maintain preparation throughout the season, considering the possibility of the arrival of “that decisive storm”.
