NASA sees no sign 1998 KY26 is anything other than an asteroid

1998 KY26 is an asteroid, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said, and he has seen no evidence that the object is a threat to Earth. His comments came as a theory spread that the roughly 36-foot object could be Phobos 1, a Soviet spacecraft lost in 1988.

Isaacman spoke on the morning of November 12, 2026, on a morning television program. He said some people in the UAP community, which covers unidentified anomalous phenomena, believe the object is making unusual movements. “First of all, nothing is about to hit us, to be very clear on this,” Isaacman said.

Isaacman rules out a threat from 1998 KY26

Isaacman said NASA continues to monitor the object but sees no reason for alarm. “I have no reason to believe this is in any way remotely a threat to our planet or anything other than just an asteroid,” he said.

See also: Study suggests that asteroid 1998 KY26 visited by Hayabusa2 may have artificial origin

Scientists describe the object’s unusual movement as “nongravitational acceleration,” which means something besides the pull of the sun and planets is affecting its path. The object is near-Earth and completes a full rotation every 5.35 minutes.

Phobos 1 hypothesis: what the Loeb study found

Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, with researchers Adam Hibberd and Adam Crowl, examined whether 1998 KY26 could be Phobos 1, an unmanned Soviet spacecraft launched toward Mars in July 1988. The probe was lost after a faulty command shut it down, and it stopped communicating while on its way to Mars. The researchers built a simplified model of the spacecraft and compared how it would reflect sunlight as it spun with observations of the object. They reported that the model closely matched eight sets of observations.

Check out: Avi Loeb finds 7 possible interstellar meteors in NASA fireball data

The team also tested whether sunlight pushing against a cylinder or against solar panels could explain the object’s movement. The spacecraft model fit hundreds of telescope and radar observations better than either of those alternatives. “Although an investigation of this kind cannot be conclusive,” the researchers wrote, the findings “add strong weight to the Phobos 1 hypothesis.”

The researchers also stressed that their model does not prove the object is the missing spacecraft. They described the theory as “strongly plausible but presently unproven.”

Georgia Tech study casts doubt on the dark comet theory

One earlier explanation was that 1998 KY26 is a “dark comet,” a body with buried water that turns to gas and pushes it through space. Astronomers have not detected the cloud or tail normally linked to a comet. A peer-reviewed study by Georgia Institute of Technology researchers Korbin Hansen and Masatoshi Hirabayashi, published in the journal Icarus, found the object is likely too warm for buried water ice to survive long enough to explain its movement. The researchers concluded that calculated water-loss rates “preclude 1998 KY26 being a dark comet at present.”

The study also estimated that the object’s average minimum temperature in orbit is -78.7°F (-61°C) or warmer, which is above the limit for water ice to survive. Other explanations exist. Earlier research found that sunlight hitting the object and heat escaping from its surface could produce the extra push without buried water.

1998 KY26 in numbers: size, spin and reflected light

• Diameter: about 36 feet (about 11 meters)
• Rotation: one full turn every 5.35 minutes
• Sunlight reflected: about 52% of the sunlight that hits it
• Average minimum temperature in orbit, per the Georgia Tech study: -78.7°F (-61°C) or warmer
• Closest approach to Earth in 2028: about 32 million miles, according to a European Space Agency figure cited by a secondary report, not confirmed in an agency statement

Asteroid study and 2023 data point to a rocky body

A separate study published this year in Astronomy & Astrophysics examined the light reflected by the object. It found the makeup appears consistent with a type of rocky asteroid. The movement is not new: a 2023 study had already reported accelerations at 1998 KY26 that exceed what sunlight or gravity can explain. Those earlier results raised the question that the Loeb team and the Georgia Tech researchers are now testing with different models.

Hayabusa2 mission could settle the 1998 KY26 question in 2031

Japan’s Hayabusa2 spacecraft is scheduled to reach 1998 KY26 in July 2031, according to a 2025 study published in Nature Communications. Hayabusa2 visited the asteroid Ryugu in 2018, returned samples to Earth in 2020, and then moved on to an extended mission that runs until 2031.

For Loeb, that encounter could provide the ultimate test of the Phobos 1 theory. “Our prediction is that instead of an iceberg, Hayabusa 2’s cameras will reveal the label ‘Made in the U.S.S.R.,'” Loeb wrote.

What is still unknown about 1998 KY26

Loeb’s hypothesis has not been confirmed by direct observation, and the study itself calls the result inconclusive. The publication date of the Loeb paper and of the Icarus study was not confirmed in the pages consulted. Reports also differ on the current distance to Earth: one cites about 186 million miles and another about 189 million miles. The Hayabusa2 encounter in 2031 is the next step that could settle the question.