Houston forecast: 2 to 6 inches of localized rain expected Sunday
Forecasters expect strong storms, heavy rain and a risk of street flooding in Houston on Sunday, November 15, 2026, as a cold front moves into Southeast Texas.
The heaviest activity is expected in the afternoon and evening, and communities near the Gulf Coast may not see the worst of it until night. Forecasts warn that water may pile up on streets with poor drainage.
Storm timeline for Sunday in Houston
Forecasters expect scattered showers early Sunday, with the bigger threat developing in the afternoon as the front approaches. Thunderstorms are forecast to move from north to south through the afternoon and evening, according to the forecasts reviewed by the newsroom.
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- 6 a.m.: scattered showers expected to begin across the area
- 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.: Wind Advisory in effect for the southern counties, with gusts that could pass 30 mph
- Midday: heavy rain forecast to spread across Houston
- Afternoon and evening: thunderstorms move from north to south
- Early Monday (16): cold front passes and the rain ends
Wind advisory and severe weather threat south of I-10
The National Weather Service issued a Wind Advisory for the southern counties from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Sunday, with gusts that could pass 30 mph. Forecasters also warn of a threat of severe weather, especially in communities south of Interstate 10, where rotating storms could produce damaging wind gusts and short-lived tornadoes.
Rain totals and storm severity: forecasts disagree
The forecasts do not agree on how much rain will fall or how strong the storms may be. One forecast places the chance of strong to severe storms at a low level, while another says the setup is not the most favorable for severe weather over Houston itself, with more concern closer to the coast. The newsroom does not treat either version as settled, and the differences matter for drivers and residents planning Sunday.
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- 1 to 3 inches over most of Houston, per one forecast
- 1 to 4 inches overall through the end of Sunday, per another
- 2 to 4 inches localized, per a Saturday-morning update from one forecast, with higher totals isolated
- 2 to 6 inches localized (about 5 to 15 centimeters), per a Saturday-evening update from one forecast, with higher totals isolated
- 80% chance of rain Sunday afternoon, per another forecast
- Level 1 of 4 excessive rain risk (Marginal Risk) from the Weather Prediction Center for all of Southeast Texas
The figures differ because they come from different outlets and different updates. FOX 26 issued two estimates on Saturday: a morning update with 2 to 4 inches and an evening update with 2 to 6 inches, both with higher totals possible in isolated spots. Space City Weather forecasts 1 to 3 inches for most of Houston, while KPRC Click2Houston gives 1 to 4 inches as a general range through the end of Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center’s Level 1 of 4 excessive rain risk covers all of Southeast Texas, according to the forecasts reviewed.
Houston weekend moves from the 80s to storms
The change in weather is sharp compared with the days before. The forecast for Friday, November 13, 2026, called for a sunny day with highs near 80 degrees Fahrenheit. On Saturday, the forecast called for sun in the morning and temperatures in the 70s in the afternoon, with winds gusting above 20 mph and Gale Warnings for the coast.
The forecasts used by the newsroom were published between November 13 and 15, 2026, and they describe what meteorologists expect to happen, not what has already happened. None of the sources consulted reports that storms have hit Houston on Sunday, and no flooding, power outages or tornadoes have been confirmed. The National Weather Service issued the Wind Advisory cited above, but no official notice from the city or civil defense with the exact timing of the cold front was found beyond the warnings broadcast by local stations.
Houston cools early Monday (16) after the front
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid-60s on Sunday, and one forecast calls for a high of 68 degrees Fahrenheit. Early Monday, the forecast calls for temperatures near 50 degrees in the morning and highs in the lower 60s in the afternoon. The temperatures should rise gradually through the week, back to the 70s by midweek.
Forecasts also differ on Monday. One says another cold front arrives early Monday, while another says the rain ends early in the day and the day is practically dry.
Thanksgiving week cold front still unknown
Forecasters are monitoring the possibility of another, potentially stronger cold front arriving around Thanksgiving week. Forecasters said it is too early to determine exactly how cold temperatures could get or when that front might arrive.
