Pope Francis’s frail health, marked by a two-week hospitalization at Gemelli Hospital in Rome due to a respiratory crisis stemming from pneumonia in both lungs, has sparked concern among Catholics worldwide and reignited discussions about his potential successor. On Friday, February 28, 2025, the Vatican reported that the 88-year-old pontiff faced a “sudden” emergency but responded well to oxygen treatment, remaining conscious throughout. Should Francis step down or pass away, the Catholic Church would convene a Conclave, a secretive and centuries-old process to elect a new pope. Currently, about 138 cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, requiring a two-thirds majority to select the next leader. While there are officially no favorites, speculation is rife, with names already circulating in Vatican corridors and international media as possible contenders.
The Conclave, held in the Sistine Chapel, adheres to strict rules set by Pope John Paul II in 1996, starting 15 to 20 days after the papal vacancy. During this time, voting cardinals are secluded from the outside world, with no access to technology or communication until a new pope emerges. Of the roughly 252 cardinals worldwide, only those under 80 can participate, a pool shaped by Francis’s 11 consistories since 2013, which favored younger leaders from diverse regions like Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Though the outcome remains unpredictable, analyses from outlets like Britain’s Catholic Herald highlight cardinals who stand out for their influence and ideology. Among the most cited are Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, Italian Pietro Parolin, and Congolese Fridolin Ambongo, each representing distinct visions for the Church’s future amid its 1.36 billion faithful.
How the Conclave works
The Conclave is the Catholic Church’s traditional method for choosing its supreme leader, blending spirituality, politics, and secrecy. Following a pope’s death or resignation, eligible cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel, conducting up to four ballots daily until a candidate secures two-thirds of the votes. The process kicks off with the “Pro eligendo Romano Pontificie” Mass, followed by the cardinals’ entry into the voting chamber, signaled by the hymn “Veni Creator” and the command “extra omnes” (everyone out), locking the doors to outsiders.
Once elected, the new pope is asked if he accepts and chooses his papal name, a symbolic decision reflecting his intended legacy. White smoke, the eagerly awaited sign of success, rises from the chapel’s chimney, captivating onlookers in St. Peter’s Square. The 2013 Conclave that elected Francis lasted just two days, though historically, the process can stretch over weeks depending on internal negotiations.
Francis has appointed 149 cardinals across his tenure, prioritizing diversity and progressive voices. This shift suggests the next pope could align with his reformist agenda, though the final decision rests with the voting cardinals’ complex alliances.
Top cardinals in the spotlight
Several cardinals emerge as frontrunners in discussions about Francis’s successor. Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, the Filipino archbishop and prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, is a frequent favorite. Known for his progressive stance, Tagle advocates for dialogue with the LGBTQ+ community and has earned the nickname “Asian Francis” for his humility and charisma. His youth and Asian roots position him as a symbol of renewal.
Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian and the Vatican’s current Secretary of State, is another strong contender. A seasoned diplomat dubbed a moderate, Parolin orchestrated key agreements, like the 2018 China deal on bishop appointments. His administrative savvy and ability to bridge conservative and progressive factions make him a potential consensus pick.
Fridolin Ambongo, 65, archbishop of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, also garners attention. As president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, he embodies the rising influence of the African Church. Ambongo’s vocal stance against social injustices could appeal to cardinals seeking a globally engaged pope.
Additional names on the list
Beyond the top trio, other cardinals feature prominently. Marc Ouellet, a 80-year-old Canadian, though at the voting age limit, remains a respected theologian and former prefect of the Congregation for Bishops. His conservative bent contrasts with Francis’s approach, yet his sway among peers endures. Peter Erdö, a 72-year-old Hungarian, is noted for his traditionalist views, particularly on immigration and doctrine.
Matteo Zuppi, 69, archbishop of Bologna, Italy, rises as a progressive figure. Known for outreach to the LGBTQ+ community and social work, Zuppi mirrors Francis’s pastoral focus. His Italian heritage paired with reformist leanings could satisfy both progressive and European-centric factions. Meanwhile, Raymond Leo Burke, a 76-year-old American, appeals to conservatives. A former St. Louis archbishop, Burke has openly critiqued Francis’s decisions, though his hardline stance might hinder broad support.
The diversity of these candidates reflects the ideological spectrum within the Church, setting the stage for a potentially contentious Conclave.
Who votes in the Conclave
Today’s College of Cardinals comprises 138 electors from 63 countries, shaped heavily by Francis’s appointments. About 54% hail from outside Europe, with Latin America (19%), Asia (14%), and Africa (12%) gaining ground, while Europe holds 46%. Italy leads with 18 voters, followed by the United States (11) and Spain (6).
Cardinals weigh factors like age, pastoral experience, and ideological stance. A younger pope like Tagle could offer a long reign, while Parolin brings stability. The push for a non-European leader grows, mirroring the Church’s global shift, where most of its faithful now reside beyond Europe.
Tensions between progressives and conservatives will likely shape the vote. Francis’s reforms, including softened stances on divorce and liturgical changes, have faced pushback from traditionalists, making the Conclave a battleground for the Church’s direction.
What’s at stake for the Church’s future
Selecting Francis’s successor will be a pivotal moment. A progressive pope could deepen reforms on inclusion and climate action, hallmarks of the current pontificate. Conversely, a conservative might reinforce traditional doctrine, rolling back some of Francis’s innovations. The Vatican’s finances, strained by ongoing deficits, will also demand decisive leadership.
Francis’s focus on peripheral regions—appointing cardinals from Myanmar, Tonga, and Haiti—could pave the way for a historic non-European pope, unseen since Syrian-born Gregory III in the 8th century. An African or Asian leader would underscore the Church’s universality.
With Francis’s health under scrutiny, uncertainty looms. Whether through resignation or a final outcome, the Conclave will determine the next chapter for a Church navigating modernity and tradition.
Fascinating facts about popes and Conclaves
The papal election process is steeped in unique traditions. Here are some highlights:
- No pope has taken the name Peter since St. Peter, due to a medieval prophecy linking “Peter II” to the end times.
- The longest Conclave in history spanned nearly three years (1268–1271), electing Gregory X.
- Black smoke, signaling no decision, comes from burning ballots with chemicals, while white smoke marks a new pope.
- Benedict XVI’s 2005 election took just two days, one of the swiftest in modern times.
These quirks add intrigue to a ritual that captivates Catholics and beyond.
Global snapshot of voting cardinals
The 138 electors represent a broad spectrum, with Italy (18), the U.S. (11), and Spain (6) topping the list. Asia’s four Indian cardinals, like George Alencherry and Oswald Gracias, highlight its growing role. Africa (17) and Latin America (26) further illustrate the Global South’s influence.
The average age of electors is 71, with at least 20 set to turn 80 by 2026, losing voting rights. This turnover keeps the College dynamic, reflecting Francis’s renewal ethos.
As Pope Francis recovers, the Catholic world watches closely. The Conclave looms as the arena where the Church’s future will take shape.
