Bitcoin reached a historic milestone by breaking the $112,500 barrier on Thursday, July 10, 2025, driven by the new wave of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency, already on an upward trajectory, reacted to the announcement of tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on imports from 22 countries, with Brazil facing the highest rate at 50%. The movement reflects a search for risk assets amid global trade tensions, while experts point to strong buying pressure in the market. The rally occurs in a context of economic uncertainty, with investors monitoring the developments of U.S. protectionist policies. Bitcoin’s surge also reignites debates about its role as a store of value in times of instability.
The cryptocurrency’s price escalation surprised even the most optimistic analysts, who now project even more ambitious targets. Breaking the $110,000 resistance, considered a psychological milestone, reinforces market confidence. However, volatility persists, with potential corrections on the horizon if trade tensions escalate.
- Drivers of the rally: Global liquidity, tech sector euphoria, and demand for alternative assets.
- Risks on the radar: Trade retaliations, especially from China, could trigger risk aversion.
- Short-term outlook: Contracts on exchanges indicate bets on prices reaching up to $120,000 by the end of July.
The combination of macroeconomic factors and speculation has placed Bitcoin at the center of attention, as investors recalibrate strategies amid shifts in global trade.
Impact of tariffs on the cryptocurrency market
The tariffs announced by Trump, including 50% rates for Brazil, 25% for Japan and South Korea, and up to 100% initially considered for China, created an environment of uncertainty in traditional markets. Global stock exchanges recorded declines, with U.S. index futures trading lower on the morning of the announcement. In this scenario, Bitcoin emerged as a safe-haven asset for investors seeking protection against instability.
Ana de Mattos, a technical analyst at Ripio, notes that the cryptocurrency found support at key technical levels. “Breaking $110,000 demonstrates market strength. The next targets are at $112,200 and $114,500, based on Fibonacci extensions,” she explains. She warns, however, that a potential correction could push prices to liquidity zones at $106,700 or even $101,475 if selling pressure intensifies.
Bitcoin’s resilience amid economic turbulence also reflects growing institutional adoption. Major investment funds and tech companies have increased their allocations to crypto assets, particularly in times of crisis. This trend, according to analysts, supports prices even in adverse scenarios.
Why does Bitcoin rise amid a trade crisis?
Bitcoin’s appreciation in unstable contexts is not new, but the current rally has unique characteristics. Unlike past crises, the combination of protectionist policies and technological advancements in blockchain has broadened the cryptocurrency’s appeal. Andre Franco, CEO of Boot Research, points out that global liquidity remains high despite trade tensions. “Tech sector euphoria, coupled with risk appetite, creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin,” he states.
Moreover, Bitcoin is perceived as an alternative to the dollar in emerging markets, where local currencies face pressure due to tariffs. In Brazil, for instance, the dollar’s rise against the real, driven by the 50% tariff, prompted investors to seek decentralized assets as a hedge against currency devaluation.
- Global liquidity: Central banks maintain expansionary monetary policies, injecting capital into markets.
- Institutional adoption: Major companies, like MicroStrategy, have increased Bitcoin holdings.
- Decentralization: The lack of state control attracts investors during political uncertainty.
- Blockchain technology: Innovations bolster confidence in Bitcoin’s security and scalability.
The buying strength, according to Murilo Cortina of QR Asset Management, is evident in breaking technical resistances. “The $110,000 mark was a profit-taking point. Its breakthrough shows market optimism,” he says.
Brazilian sectors under pressure
The 50% tariffs imposed on Brazil, justified by Trump as retaliation for the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an alleged “unfair trade relationship,” will significantly impact the Brazilian economy. Official U.S. government data, however, contradict the deficit narrative, showing a $7.4 billion trade surplus in goods with Brazil in 2024.
Humberto Aillon, a tax management specialist at Fipecafi, explains that the most affected sectors include oil, aviation, steel, coffee, and meat. “These products now face substantial costs to access the U.S. market, which could reduce competitiveness and impact exports,” he says. Petrobras, for example, which exported $2.37 billion in crude oil to the U.S. in the first half of 2025, may see its profit margins squeezed.
Embraer, another Brazilian giant, also faces challenges. The company, which exports aircraft components, is dealing with a stronger dollar and potential declines in demand for new orders. In the agricultural sector, exports of unroasted coffee ($1.16 billion) and beef ($737.8 million) may lose market share to competitors with lower tariffs, such as Australia and Argentina.
Global reactions and China’s role
China, initially targeted with tariffs exceeding 100%, has responded cautiously but firmly. The Chinese government warned of potential retaliations, including restrictions on rare earth exports, critical for the tech industry. This stance raises the risk of escalating trade wars, which could negatively impact Bitcoin if risk aversion dominates markets.
Other countries, such as Japan and South Korea, also face 25% tariffs, prompting international criticism. The World Trade Organization (WTO), though weakened, may be called upon by affected nations, but its mediation capacity is limited. In Brazil, the government signaled it might adopt measures based on the 2025 Economic Reciprocity Law, but analysts recommend caution to avoid escalating retaliations.
- China: Ongoing negotiations to reduce tariffs, with threats of retaliation.
- Japan and South Korea: 25% tariffs affect exports of cars and semiconductors.
- Brazil: Government considers diplomatic actions and selective retaliations.
- WTO: Limited ability to mediate global trade disputes.
Global uncertainty reinforces Bitcoin’s perception as a protective asset, but it also heightens volatility. Exchanges like Deribit report optimistic bets, with contracts forecasting prices between $115,000 and $120,000 by the end of July.
Technical and market outlook
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing optimism tempered with caution. Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after its sharp rally. Ana de Mattos of Ripio emphasizes that support and resistance levels will be critical in the coming weeks. “If the price holds above $110,000, the uptrend could strengthen,” she says.
In the short term, market dynamics depend on macroeconomic factors, such as China’s response to tariffs and central bank actions. Sustained expansionary monetary policies, particularly by the Federal Reserve, could maintain the liquidity driving risk assets like Bitcoin.
In the long term, Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a store of value and payment method in emerging economies could solidify its position in financial markets. In Brazil, the real’s devaluation and the search for alternatives to traditional finance have boosted crypto adoption, especially among younger investors.
Tech sectors and market euphoria
Bitcoin’s rally is also tied to euphoria in the tech sector, which has proven resilient to trade tensions. Companies like Nvidia and Tesla, with significant exposure to the crypto market, saw gains in their stocks, reflecting investor optimism. The integration of blockchain into corporate solutions, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and asset tokenization, also contributes to the positive outlook.
In Brazil, crypto startups have attracted investments despite economic uncertainties. Platforms like Ripio and Mercado Bitcoin reported increased trading volumes, driven by Bitcoin’s appreciation and the search for alternative investments. This trend underscores the relevance of the crypto market in the current economic context.
- Decentralized finance: Growth in DeFi protocols attracts institutional investors.
- Tokenization: Real assets, like real estate, are increasingly traded on blockchain.
- Brazilian startups: 30% increase in trading volumes in 2025.
- Corporate integration: Major companies adopt blockchain to optimize processes.
Bitcoin’s future, while promising, remains subject to external variables, such as evolving trade policies and global macroeconomic stability. For now, the cryptocurrency remains a protagonist in a volatile but opportunity-rich market.